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Everything posted by The Weather Dragon
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Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards
The Weather Dragon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Didn't indicate anything severe though - just getting colder - element of doubt regarding longevity of cold - Met office yellow warning for Scotland & Northwest in keeping with current model output -
Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards
The Weather Dragon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ok - cold yes that's on its way - exceptional cold NO A potent PM airmass brings snow for the favoured areas late Weds/Thursday Then we rely on some Mid Atlantic ridging for the weekend and first few days of Feb - not expecting much from this - but some will do ok Far from a Nationwide Event Not being purposely negative - just realistic -
Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards
The Weather Dragon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Promising medium range charts tonight - need to see these synoptics to be consistent across all main models at t120z -
Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards
The Weather Dragon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Still no sign of HLB and lowered heights around the Azores = no prolonged severe spell with guaranteed settling lowland snow -
The lesson learned is that for nationwide cold snowy weather we need solid high latitude blocking - without it would be marginal for the majority of lowland areas especially towards the South - this type of blocking doesn't occur very often - and the models and indicators certainly aren't showing any signs of this soon !
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The models handled the general synoptical theme well for this week (give or take 50-100 miles) There will be snow for some - some of which will be nowcasting (marginality) Everything is wrongly positioned synoptically for significnat cold (Stubborn PV Greenland & Azores High) Russian High does not have the associated energy to flex it's muscles As I stated though - for some a wintry week with snow and cold minima - nothing unusual though Fingers crossed for February
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I've been a member since 2005 & have been quietly following this winter. IMHO ECM has been poor this & last winter - a model that traditionaly managed to model high latitude blocking reasonably well has been overly progressive this season - This is a strong Scandinavian block but unfortunatley I feel that we will always be on the periphery of it - as has been the case in recent winters - Still waiting for the elusive Greenland/Icelandic High
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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.
The Weather Dragon replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Good to see models suggesting predominantly dry weather. Up to 6 c already here on the SW. There has been a significant lack of cold surface temps this winter even when Synoptics have been favourable - complete contrast to 2009/10. We have had more surface cold and ice in the past with so called faux cold set ups - disapointing winter overall. -
Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.
The Weather Dragon replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Not to much to get excited about from the overnight/morning runs. Cold - YES, Severe Cold - NO. Snow for some - YES. Nationwide - NO. Significant lack of cold pooling over Continental Europe. Expect further modification upwards of 850's and further downgrades. Advice - to follow the MET O on this one to avoid dissapointment. -
Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.
The Weather Dragon replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Very pleasing 06z run post 150h we desperately need a settled anticyclonic spell of weather - whatever the airmass ! - have a gut feeling that we will get this - but the weather will be very much on the average side with no significant cold spell. -
Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.
The Weather Dragon replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Maybe the GEM op is onto something with energy diverted SE. This has been a stubborn block much stronger than any of us thought it would be. -
Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.
The Weather Dragon replied to phil nw.'s topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Last major northerly was nov/dec 2010