The Weather Dragon
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Ok - we have a crucial period around the 20th whereby there is little cross model agreement - very small chance of interesting developments - 25% -
TBH though most of us want Cold & Snow potential - I have a massive interest in weather but Cloudy and 9c doesn't really get me that excited. The present blocking is eating up precious mid-winter time. What will happen is that eventually our prevailing W/SW will be back - this looks likely towards the end of the 6-10 day period.
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Please bin 18z evolution past T96 - it simply isn't feasible - onwards to the 00z runs UK MET in particular
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After next weeks anticyclonic activity - have it on good authority that we are going zonal into following week - lasting at least two weeks. That takes us into February and the last chance saloon.
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Interesting period late next week - lots to be resolved. General cross model consensus is for build of pressure to NW/Iceland - could give us a decent spell. Top tip - - look to UK MET
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We should have a UK met model only thread with no comments from other models allowed lol
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Well - the mid latitude / uk high was nailed by uk met earlier in the week - top performer in the medium term - if you want cold then look to the met office - the best in the world !!
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I think that this is a very achievable solution given the starting point synoptics and background signals - we'll keep an eye on this - If we get to this situation then we are going into the freezer
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Last frame of ECM shows the pv on the move and heights building significantly over greenland - a trend to watch out for later next week - massive potential for late January
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
The Weather Dragon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
What a pathetic attempt at an easterly - grey and cold - this however is the scenario with most winter easterlies. ECM leads us up the garden path - GFS more pragmatic - what will it take to get some 80's style winters in the bag ! -
The cut off northern arm of the jet stream is just to powerful to allow sustained high latitude blocking - thus we end up with a uk high with a slack easterly/south easterly component - it will be cold but nothing of significance - ECM is backtracking now
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I never bought the raging easterly scenario - i did mention at the beginning of the week that a mid lat/u.k. high was the most probable outcome following the northerly. At least it will be cold with frosts. Where do we go from midweek onwards ?
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Ok let's remember - getting the cold is the first step - we have that nailed on from tomorrow - what comes next - model chaos as they grapple with the possible abnormal outcomes. The first step is the cold and we have it.
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Morning all - as expected the raging easterly has now been tamed. We look likely to end up with a mid latitude block of sorts with a nondescript easterly/southeasterly component. Cold but not what most of us really desire. That said short term upgrades on the upcoming wintery snap mean that many may see a decent snowfall event with reasonable accumulations.
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This is my personal assessment of the modelled synoptics using a blend of experience & probability
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Short term upgrades now starting to appear - thurs/fri looking very good for some with accumulating snow - possible east coast surge a concern
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Milder air returning for Sun/Mon & a mid latitude block next week - ECM will catch up tomorrow
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I am not dismissing the ECM - it is one of a range of possible solutions - as is GFS
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That ECM easterly could be gone tomorrow- seen it too many times before - expect a middle ground
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From the model output - my analysis is that we will end up with a mid latitude block - the 'form horse' and general signal for this winter. There is no indication for significant high latitude blocking - unfortunately
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assessing the output it looks like a 2/3 day cold snap - snow falling anywhere but only really settling at higher elevations more particularly in the north - nothing unusual. Clutching at straws regarding a decent easterly - just cannot see it myself
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Instead of looking and hoping past 144z keep an eye on changes in the short term. FI will very very rarely verify. Short term changes have and will develop
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Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
The Weather Dragon replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes - seen it before a million times - some more balanced opinion on here would help avoid major let downs - prolonged cold is as rare as hens teeth. Makes you realise how special years like 2010 are. -
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
The Weather Dragon replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We are battle weary warriors - many years of let downs has taken its toll - for me the penny has dropped !!! -
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
The Weather Dragon replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well said - let's see how the pattern evolves rather than hyping up sweet spots etc - it's getting colder yes.. Let's get the cold in and see what evolves
