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Everything posted by The Weather Dragon
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
The Weather Dragon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just this minute watched a news article on BBC News 24 - regarding SSW - Met O representative indicated very high probability of Easterlies by next Monday and MOGREPS model was mentioned - sounded like MET O are very confident - also mentioned that QTR is yet to become established in freeview models - there is hope ? -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
The Weather Dragon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We appear to be clutching at straws - cold incoming for March - sadly to late for majority of the UK -
Model output discussion - mid-winter
The Weather Dragon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A pattern change to a cold polar maritime flow is now looking highly likely - and with the trough dropping into Europe the models are trying to decide what happens thereafter- interesting times !- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - winter proper underway
The Weather Dragon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM goes flat overnight & GFS has got the wobbles - I feel a mobile westerly festive period is the greater probability considering current model output - With a front loader we’ll be looking for some fun and games in the first half of January- 2,328 replies
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Model output discussion - winter proper underway
The Weather Dragon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
looks like a pull on the atlantic is a given. I don’t think that cold will be too far away though - the models and the pros do indicate this ?- 2,328 replies
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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
The Weather Dragon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The models have been consistent - a brief northwesterly followed by colder cyclonic conditions - far too marginal for widespread lowland snow - and we stay like this through next week followed by another weekend northerly - really good modelling imho. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
The Weather Dragon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like yet another northerly next weekend - that must be about the 5th in a row now - amazing pattern! -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
The Weather Dragon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Taking the current big 3 model output into account - it’s going to get colder - Snow and ice likely for Northern and upland areas. Marginal for the rest of us with a mixture or rain,sleet & snow. No sign of a nationwide freeze in the reliable timeframe - fingers crossed for later into December and early January -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
The Weather Dragon replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can i just bring a bit of perspective to the forum. It’s early December and what I am seeing in the model output is marginal snow/cold for the South - with much greater probability of true cold and accumulating snow for the North - that is what the current output will bring. We need to see much more extensive Northern blocking for a prolonged nationwide cold & snowy spell. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
The Weather Dragon replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can i just bring a bit of perspective to the forum. It’s early December and what I am seeing in the model output is marginal snow/cold for the South - with much greater probability of true cold and accumulating snow for the North - that is what the current output will bring. We need to see much more extensive Northern blocking for a prolonged nationwide cold & snowy spell. -
In general very pleasing model output this morning. All 3 main models show some continental influence next week. As TEITS mentions Scandinavian heights are a difficult concept for the models - is the atlantic overplayed - probably The 'fly in the ointment' as in previous let downs may be the azores high - if we can send that packing we could be in for a lengthier spell of below average temperatures - one to watch over the next few days. In conclusion - plenty to be optimistic about. The winter champion UKMET is with us for now - this is the model to watch. Enjoy !
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The models are currently showing a large blocking high pressure area to our east and low pressure associated with a strong canadian lobe of the polar vortex to our west. The UK looks likely to be stuck (as we often are) in a battleground situation where there are many possible outcomes - a very dynamic situation to be carefully monitored.