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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Charts like this first one are a real kick in the proverbials for UK cold fans. Gets better later in the run though. Real monster trough there. -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Worth noting we haven't seen the ECM ensembles yet. Could be a mild outlier -
Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This 00z run is a work of art and a thing of perfection. Can it get any better than this. *Edit for my location to be accurate but great opportunities for the UK too. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well Nick, with the UK's tendency to snatch mild defeat from the jaws of cold victory then I too advocate extreme caution! -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Oh definitely Nick! Its all positive for UK cold that much is true. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
At 144h the GFS and ECM solutions are rather different, and I know what I'd put my money on at that range. And although it has been done to death I'm convinced there is at least a grain of truth in the US shutdown affecting the accuracy of the GFS output. Very sad to see the full implementation of the FV3 has been delayed. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
True, but a general observation, and certainly not a criticism of what you've said. It's great for UK based cold weather fans to see the cold air arriving full stop, I'm sure snow will follow (don't want to jinx it). Much easier for those of us based 1500km further east! The wait this year has been painful for UK cold lovers. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Sorry but I do think the GFS has 'gone off on one with that low pressure bomb shot all the way to the med. With ukmo for comparison. *Edit. I bet ECM will follow ukmo's lead -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know Tom. Geography is a real *****. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Interesting to see where this run falls. What I note is just how damn annoying it is for UK cold weather fans. So often it's the UK stuck in its own little mild sector compared to Europe at that latitude and sometimes even the neighbouring Atlantic. -
Well that was a surprise. After a melt overnight there has been a very heavy little burst of snow this afternoon and we have a covering again. Variable week this week and then back to proper winter from Friday onwards.
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Please take some of ours, been pretty much every day for a week now. At least I'm not in the German or Austrian alps thankfully, tragic life threatening conditions there. But looking at this, some good chances for some nice, safe snow for the UK. Your turn -
TBH Jethro I wouldn't bet on it. The low pressure system is moving into Europe and warmer air is approaching from the Atlantic. Sorry.
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
FV3 is effectively a different model though. So it's a bit apples and oranges in a way. -
Daily Express headline to accompany this. ARMAGEDON HELL WINTER USHERS NEW ICE AGE. MILE THICK GLACIERS COVER THE NATION. -100 RECORDED IN CENTRAL LONDON
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks excellent to me. I do worry a bit when I see charts like that for the UK. We have plenty of snow and sub zero temps where I am now but people are more used to it and there is more infrastructure to deal with it. Will be a bit chaotic if that comes off. But enjoy if it does. Meanwhile I'm happy with the way the current ECM is going. And a little something to whet your snow appetite too. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hi IDO, I'm curious why you mention day 12 as being a crucial date for when model bias becomes apparent, I think it is often apparent much earlier. Penny for your thoughts on this. -
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Seasonality replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wanted to share this, thanks @Sweatyman for giving me the idea , but here is the site that generates those very useful ECM monthly forecast anomaly maps. All free too! Very interesting site with a lot of good info http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/ -
The glamorous life of a parent. I've been there too with the vomiting bug Jemma. Anyway here's a classic cold gif for everyone...