Matthew.
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Posts posted by Matthew.
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From what I've read I expect June to have 1 good spell of weather with it being a nice dry heat with low humidity and then a transition to a humid feel from the end of July through August. It seems to me all 3 months will be at least 1c above normal.
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There does seem much expectation around for this Summer and much I expect has come from the media as well as favourable long term forecasts. One of the charts a few days ago looked very similar to June 25th 76' with the Azores High building strongly across the Uk from way Sw. I just wonder if this may happen this year and give a prolonged heatwave and not just a short Spanish plume. I haven't looked into what ocean factors cause the Azores to become so strongly positioned NE though.
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The Jet stream is looking weak for the beginning of June. If this prevails over Summer High Pressure may be in charge much of the time. Something Im not use to seeing.
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26 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:
Just going by this mornings GFS 06 (sat 21)
I make the months end finish to be 12.6 (or thereabouts) before corrections.
Yes the Azores High seems to be holding off until Flaming June
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Thankyou for this forecast Ian, I am pleased for a better June. Still 14.6 is nothing special in terms of temperature but if High Pressure is in control and gives many sunny days like April 2015 it could be a very special month and remind us of them lovely hot summers of 76, 95, 03 in terms of sunshine
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It's looking like a 12.9 for May to me at the moment. I've just been looking at some similar years and found this close one in 1911 and here it is starting from January:
3.8, 4.8, 5.2, 7.5, 12.9, 14.5, 18.2
2016
5.4, 4.9, 5.8, 7.5, (12.9)p
Interestingly 1911 had a Summer which finished in the Top Ten of all time
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Interesting about a possibility of the high 11's for the end of month. I've also seen some charts showing high pressure building to the south and east for the final week. Is this 50/50 to which way it will go?
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I wonder if this year will follow the pattern of 1947 bringing a May of 13c + and a Summer which is in the top 10 warmest Summers of all time( 7th or 8th if I remember correctly). Sadly not too many May's in the 13's have led to this though. Another encouraging thought is the Great El Niño of 83 gave a top 10 Summer also, holding 6th position I believe.
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I think there's the potential of this being quite a warm month. The ECM is wanting to bring high pressure from the Sw closer over the uk next week and there a draw of mild Sw. The GFS still has the Jet further south as a rule with cooler potential longer term
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40 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:
Speaking of 2008, the rolling CET was 15.1 after the 12th and the month ended up at 13.4, in fact the only day that was warmer than the average of 1-12 afterwards was the 31st at 15.4. I vaguely recall some excitement around this contest about the 1833 record being under threat but the average fell back as low as 12 after some quite chilly days mid-month.
Thats interesting what you say about 2008. I never realised just how warm this month started! I wouldnt have thought there have been many oppurtunities to beat 1833. Hopefully this months second half will match the first and we could be at least 1c above the 81 average.
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I was impressed by your late April cold snap Iapennell. It will be interesting to see if your 10.6c estimate for May comes near the mark also. The North/South weather patterns are giving some changes to the usual West to east patterns. I hope your wrong about June though.
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I noticed at the beginning of the month the GFS showed a resistance of the cold but the ECM had the warm air moving north easily which is now happening. I also agree that the date record for the 8th is under serious threat. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Mean of 18c.
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Thankyou. Sorry I should have mentioned I was looking at several charts not just GFS to have temperatures closer to 14c and 6c. I wonder if the GFS is over emphasising the cold temperatures? They do look very low to say i expect nothing like the late April cold spell. Thank you for explaining and look forward to taking part in June CET.
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Are these Gfs runs worse case scenario? Just my calculations give me 12.4 to the 16th and in the cool spell next weekend I have 14/15c by day and 6/7c by night which give a mean much higher of around 10.5c.
Sunday 22nd May 2016 Weather Chat
in Weather reports
Posted
A thunderstorm just rolling into Teeside area 15.45. A large dark cumulonimbus with no wind but the cloud seems to be going in different directions. Very strange phenomena!