Matthew.
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Posts posted by Matthew.
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2 minutes ago, dinger said:
Morning. I don't post much but I thought it would be prudent to remind those that are a bit pessimistic of our chances of a severe spell of cold weather that winter 1947 did not start until January 23rd and lasted until the middle of March. Snow fell somewhere in the UK every day for 55 consecutive days.
After having read the brilliant post by 62-63 last night I am hopeful that something similar may be just around the corner.
Have a good one.
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32 minutes ago, reef said:
We reached an air pressure of 1043.9hPa today, making it the highest since 7th February 2012.
Strangely we also had rain showers! Odd to get anything in the way of shower activity with pressure this high. I imagine that doesn't happen too often.
From memory early October 2015 climbed close to that figure too
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2 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:
I would highly recommend it! The biggest and best county in England by a long shot.
Just to check Matthew, do you live in the Marton near Cleveland or the small village near Pickering?
The one near Cleveland but the second pic is from Dalby forest area
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12 hours ago, Sunny76 said:
Where do you live? Those places look nice.
North Yorkshire area
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6.9c final December CET
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat
6.89c to 2 decimal places
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It’s been a great year here in Ne England! January brought 3 days of lying snow, February 2, then March 5. Also had the deepest snow level since Jan 2013 if not Dec 2010.
Then turned very wet for a time before the first heatwave(relative to month) in April.
It soon went downhill after a few days but by the start of May a big change was underway to record sunshine levels between 1-21 May. May ended on a cool, cloudy note and carried on through June. By the last third of June the weather changed for good and brought much sunnier, very warm conditions which lasted through early August with a memorable thunderstorm in the last week of July, the lightning, thunder, the best I’ve seen in my life! Unsettled weather then lasted through August and September with heavy rain causing flooding around the autumn equinox. It felt like winter on high ground as the wind came in from the Ne wrapped round a area of low pressure. October saw a improvement to dryer conditions once again before a very cold last week! In November a milder pattern did take over and continued through December with a mostly kind, benign end to Autumn, early winter. The one day which did come in very cold being the middle of December with wind chill factor of -6c but was brief and short-lived.
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If the CET were to finish on 7 it would be only behind these years in the last 100
1. 2015, 2. 1974, 3. 1934, 4. 1988 5. 2018?
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4 hours ago, snowrye said:
Reading all these posts is utterly confusing,1 posts 1 thing,1 posts something completely opposite,and on top of that,the hunt for cold thread,has turned into the ssw thread,seems all hope is being pinned on this,although it doesn't guarantee cold,I admit,I know very little about it,but even though its only december,it seems this will be make or break the winter,seems to be getting harder and harder every winter,yes,we had a mini beast from east in march,but from a snow perspective,It wasn't that great in my location,compared to places only a couple of miles up the rd.
Feb 1986, one of the coldest months of the 20th century, had above average zonal winds
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On 25/12/2018 at 20:17, Matthew. said:
Perhaps 7c is out of the question
Looking at the forecast this morning I’m not so sure now
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There has never been three 6c+ winter months in a row so let’s see if Jan can give us a chance of this
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Perhaps 7c is out of the question but 6.6 would give the 2nd mildest December in 30 years!
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1 analogue with many similarities to this year is winter 1953/54. It did take a while to change but the last third of Jan was bitter.
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50 minutes ago, Whether Idle said:
Quite correct Matthew. high nighttime minima will be they key to keeping the CET much closer to 7c than 6c.
Yes had a quick check just now and came up with 6.9 before corrections. I think to hit 7 we would need milder minima on Christmas Eve and day.
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5 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
Although theoretically possible high pressure centered very close to the UK at this time of year will tend to put more negative than positive pressure on the CET due to even dirty mild high's producing fog and keeping maxima down. I would therefore tend to lean more towards a figure around 6C, especially after corrections.
Yes was thinking that. It just looked like high pressure might just sit towards the Se of the country perhaps maintaining a Sw flow rising the minima levels.
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An outside chance of finishing on 7c maybe can’t be ruled out?
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The last 10 years from a winters season lying snow and deep cold perspective from locally in NE England:
2009/10: Around 30 days lying snow well spaced out over season
2010/11: Around 20 days lying snow mainly late November/December
2011/12: Maybe a day or 2
2012/13: Just over 10 or so days lying snow mainly mid/late January
2013/14: Nothing
2014/15: Barely Nothing
2015/16: Barely Nothing and April at that
2016/17: Barely Nothing
2017/18: Just over 10 or so days lying snow well spaced, Nov 30th-Mar 19th
Even though this year has recorded nothing as yet we await to see if the SSW occurs. As 2013 shows, many days in succession can occur at half month intervals. I believe the mild December theory, leading to no further snowfall for the rest of the season, falls short of accuracy. This could be compared with the year ending ‘8’ comparison for summer as that proved a false heron this year. That being said, the greatest winters for snow and cold e.g 2009/10, do tend to have an overall pattern. These years seem to occur once in a decade or 2. The 2020’s will have another such like I’m sure with other years having good spells too!
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6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
Even the GFSP over runs the block to the eastYes a key period. The ECM showed Wednesday later on looks the peak day for the easterly when some may see a wintry mix but no sign of lying snow for those without elevation
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Latest Gfs shows high pressure strongly in charge with easterlies in by next weekend with uppers still around 4c+
Sst temperatures in the North Sea hovering above 10c still. 4c warmer than March this year
The mid March easterlies got down to a remarkable-13c
Late November 2010 had a really favourable pattern composing a front loaded winter with the wind in from the north
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Several things stand out from previous February CET analysis here
1. A cold or average November most likely
2. A cold or average December looks likely
3. A average or cold Jan is more likely
4. A mild February looks likely
Front loaded Winter?
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The NAO forecast in May was supportive of a positive regime. I have a feeling a mild one is on the way overall but pressure patterns are always up in the air for now. Snow events can turn up at times even in generally mild winters.
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Here’s my top 5 summers of the century for my eastern location
1. 2013 2. 2006 3. 2018 4. 2003 5. 2014
The best June-July would be 2006 but July 2006 and 2013 were memorable. The best August probably 2003 but 2016 was great too here. 2018 is my favourite May though. None of these summers would be a match for 1976, 89 or 95. Still waiting to see one but maybe not for a few years now. 76 is probably like 63 for winter and 59 for autumn and 1893 for spring-incredibly rare
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I would love to see a September and October like 1959 but this at best is probably 1 in a lifetime event. After the extended settled spell it finished with some Autumn storms too
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2013 will remain in first place for summer of the 2000’s here. 2006 and 2018 both have good and bad but will wait and see what happens in the next week or so. 2018 was poor in the first 3 weeks of June then good and bad in August. Whereas 2006 was better in June and better in July overall but worse in August so not sure which I would choose out the 2. Still very good nonetheless. 2003 and 2014 follow but will have to read up on other years aswell to see if any match these 2 reasonably good summers too
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Matthew.
The slight shift west makes all the difference to let the high in and in a week important differences can take place as this year showed! Edit, I mean last year lol!