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Everything posted by Matthew.

  1. The slight shift west makes all the difference to let the high in and in a week important differences can take place as this year showed! Edit, I mean last year lol!
  2. From memory early October 2015 climbed close to that figure too
  3. The one near Cleveland but the second pic is from Dalby forest area
  4. 6.9c final December CET https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat 6.89c to 2 decimal places https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2018
  5. It’s been a great year here in Ne England! January brought 3 days of lying snow, February 2, then March 5. Also had the deepest snow level since Jan 2013 if not Dec 2010. Then turned very wet for a time before the first heatwave(relative to month) in April. It soon went downhill after a few days but by the start of May a big change was underway to record sunshine levels between 1-21 May. May ended on a cool, cloudy note and carried on through June. By the last third of June the weather changed for good and brought much sunnier, very warm conditions which lasted through early August with a memorable thunderstorm in the last week of July, the lightning, thunder, the best I’ve seen in my life! Unsettled weather then lasted through August and September with heavy rain causing flooding around the autumn equinox. It felt like winter on high ground as the wind came in from the Ne wrapped round a area of low pressure. October saw a improvement to dryer conditions once again before a very cold last week! In November a milder pattern did take over and continued through December with a mostly kind, benign end to Autumn, early winter. The one day which did come in very cold being the middle of December with wind chill factor of -6c but was brief and short-lived.
  6. If the CET were to finish on 7 it would be only behind these years in the last 100 1. 2015, 2. 1974, 3. 1934, 4. 1988 5. 2018?
  7. Feb 1986, one of the coldest months of the 20th century, had above average zonal winds
  8. There has never been three 6c+ winter months in a row so let’s see if Jan can give us a chance of this
  9. Perhaps 7c is out of the question but 6.6 would give the 2nd mildest December in 30 years!
  10. 1 analogue with many similarities to this year is winter 1953/54. It did take a while to change but the last third of Jan was bitter.
  11. Yes had a quick check just now and came up with 6.9 before corrections. I think to hit 7 we would need milder minima on Christmas Eve and day.
  12. Yes was thinking that. It just looked like high pressure might just sit towards the Se of the country perhaps maintaining a Sw flow rising the minima levels.
  13. The last 10 years from a winters season lying snow and deep cold perspective from locally in NE England: 2009/10: Around 30 days lying snow well spaced out over season 2010/11: Around 20 days lying snow mainly late November/December 2011/12: Maybe a day or 2 2012/13: Just over 10 or so days lying snow mainly mid/late January 2013/14: Nothing 2014/15: Barely Nothing 2015/16: Barely Nothing and April at that 2016/17: Barely Nothing 2017/18: Just over 10 or so days lying snow well spaced, Nov 30th-Mar 19th Even though this year has recorded nothing as yet we await to see if the SSW occurs. As 2013 shows, many days in succession can occur at half month intervals. I believe the mild December theory, leading to no further snowfall for the rest of the season, falls short of accuracy. This could be compared with the year ending ‘8’ comparison for summer as that proved a false heron this year. That being said, the greatest winters for snow and cold e.g 2009/10, do tend to have an overall pattern. These years seem to occur once in a decade or 2. The 2020’s will have another such like I’m sure with other years having good spells too!
  14. Yes a key period. The ECM showed Wednesday later on looks the peak day for the easterly when some may see a wintry mix but no sign of lying snow for those without elevation
  15. Latest Gfs shows high pressure strongly in charge with easterlies in by next weekend with uppers still around 4c+ Sst temperatures in the North Sea hovering above 10c still. 4c warmer than March this year The mid March easterlies got down to a remarkable-13c Late November 2010 had a really favourable pattern composing a front loaded winter with the wind in from the north
  16. Several things stand out from previous February CET analysis here 1. A cold or average November most likely 2. A cold or average December looks likely 3. A average or cold Jan is more likely 4. A mild February looks likely Front loaded Winter?
  17. The NAO forecast in May was supportive of a positive regime. I have a feeling a mild one is on the way overall but pressure patterns are always up in the air for now. Snow events can turn up at times even in generally mild winters.
  18. Here’s my top 5 summers of the century for my eastern location 1. 2013 2. 2006 3. 2018 4. 2003 5. 2014 The best June-July would be 2006 but July 2006 and 2013 were memorable. The best August probably 2003 but 2016 was great too here. 2018 is my favourite May though. None of these summers would be a match for 1976, 89 or 95. Still waiting to see one but maybe not for a few years now. 76 is probably like 63 for winter and 59 for autumn and 1893 for spring-incredibly rare
  19. I would love to see a September and October like 1959 but this at best is probably 1 in a lifetime event. After the extended settled spell it finished with some Autumn storms too
  20. 2013 will remain in first place for summer of the 2000’s here. 2006 and 2018 both have good and bad but will wait and see what happens in the next week or so. 2018 was poor in the first 3 weeks of June then good and bad in August. Whereas 2006 was better in June and better in July overall but worse in August so not sure which I would choose out the 2. Still very good nonetheless. 2003 and 2014 follow but will have to read up on other years aswell to see if any match these 2 reasonably good summers too
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