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Everything posted by Matthew.
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Spring 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc
Matthew. replied to Summer Sun's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
What a fabulous day out there. Can’t believe it’s February, feels like April! -
February 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
Matthew. replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
From 17th January to 5th February is a notably cold CET period just below 2.5c. SSW related? -
Favourite cold seasons this decade 1. 2010 2. 2011 3. 2013, 2018 5. 2012 6. 2019(so far) 7. 2015, 2017, 2016, 2014
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Just had the heaviest shower of the day, left a dusting. Just need more of those. A good half hour one wouldn’t go amiss
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I’m hinging my hopes on a covering by morning. An inch would be lovely
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It veers northerly more tomorrow
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This afternoon/evening we should see the most but even Saturday you wouldn’t rule showers out
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You can see why tomorrow is looking particularly good from a shower perspective with the Low to the south turning the winds into the east as it moves eastwards. The beeb have some big showers forming Morning Evening
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In comparison things do look marginal during the day but nights give ample opportunity. Tuesday just gone things looked much worse as thicknesses, dew point and 850’s were too high with the synoptic pattern
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Maybe a snow surprise tonight into Saturday for some as showers from the North Sea stream in later
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Might hit the rare -5c Wednesday night. Last March we hit -4c so might beat that
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Sunday evening/Monday evening/Thursday afternoon look possible snow chances
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There’s a little feature Monday afternoon too across Yorkshire which bring snow early evening
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The centre of the low overhead your location is best to take advantage of evaporative cooling and when dark if possible
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Last year we had snow at night in northern England from 850’s around -2 because of evaporative cooling. The south coast looking good if it can just nudge slightly north on the Ukmo model for Tuesday night
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January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests
Matthew. replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
A finishing CET around 4c is looking likely. -
ECM and Ukmo end of next week showing the importance of where any wedges of high pressure sit the difference of a westerly airstream to a northerly. The winter of no proper northern blocking continues so short cold snaps at best e.g early 2003
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Matthew. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
Matthew. replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion