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Matthew.

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Posts posted by Matthew.


  1. Since that spectacular 2nd half of February the first week of March has been very wet here. Past examples which turned very wet after special weather include March 2012, April 2007. The question is will this be the start of a much wetter period as the other examples or will it be a blip? I have a feeling it’s not a blip and a run of months now may be all about the rain.


  2. Here’s the winter CET anomalies since 1989 by the 81-10 average

    1989 +5.8 1990 +5.0 1991 -4.6 1992 +0.1 1993 +0.4 1994 +0.3 1995 +4.0 

    1996 -4.6  1997 -1.6 1998 +4.6 1999 +2.6 2000 +2.5 2001 -0.3 2002 +2.4

    2003 +0.4 2004 +1.9 2005 +2.0  2006 -1.3 2007 +5.6 2008 +3.2 2009 -3.1

    2010 -6.4 2011 -4.3  2012 +1.5   2013 -2.2 2014 +4.5 2015 +0.4 2016 +6.3

    2017 +2.4 2018 -0.7 2019 +3.9

    31 years, 3c overall either way 9 warmer, 5 colder

    2019 was 17th warmest in 360 years which means 8/17 have occurred since 1989


  3. By the end of Wednesday we’ll have had 9 days of maximum temperatures 12-17c, sunshine virtually throughout and relatively calm. To get them 3 ingredients in February in such a prolonged period is a first for here and will be a historic month along with lying snow on the 2nd and morning of the 3rd. This is up there with the most magical months of the decade for me.


  4. 24 minutes ago, Don said:

    It’s the duration of this warm spell that’s concerning.

    Very unusual but March 2012 showed if does happen, on and off for a month. Never known it this early though from experience, everything will be in bloom before the months out


  5. 5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

    I thought that too....you’d think the strength of the sun in June would burn it off much quicker. I guess the cloud deck is that much thicker in early summer with the contrast between sea and land? Was gone by 10am here, had a few days in June last year that lasted til lunchtime 

    The position of the high to the south east is helping with that. Last June it positioned more to the east north east thus making all the difference dragging in much larger amounts of cloud. We have perfect Synoptics at the moment pretty much.


  6. 2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Eh? What exactly constitutes a 'special' mild spell for you in February? For a start, it's looking like the best spell of mild February weather since at least 2008. And tomorrow until at least next Wednesday would certainly be classed as prolonged and by no means 'quick'.

    Looking at max/min values the means for the next week are coming in around 10c which is normal for late April. It doesn’t really come much milder historically for the time of year. 


  7. 6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I find it quite astounding the ecm ensemble has a 4 day run of 850 temps at 10c in February. We’d be happy with that in July. It’s a bit mind boggling to be honest.

    It’s the thing of weather fairytales so will have to keep watch. Very interesting times for extreme watchers and record breakers. After last weekend a period like March 2012 could be on the cards! ECM has been consistent too.


  8. Summer 2007 wasn’t to bad in the east with many sunny periods interspersed between the wet periods. I wouldn’t mind that. In fact I think the continued meridianal flow will continue with being a solar min year. It might even be a plume summer if we get the block to the east. Another point is about the qbo. If it was east then I would be going for west based ridges through the Atlantic but that’s not the case this year so another bonus in my book.

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