Methuselah

That's very true, and should we seen any of the white stuff, it's almost invariably washed away by subsequent warm-sector mizzle?

Which, in turn, are only as 'accurate' as the inherent chaos in the equations will ever permit?

Which is, in itself, no reason to pick holes: past the time where FI commences (anywhere between 96 and 168hrs, depending on weather-type?) the op and control runs are little more than ordinary ensemble members? You cannae make a detailed forecast based on a bunch of ensemble members with a temperature range upwards of 20C...You can say that things are too complex/chaotic to accurately predict, however...?

Oh dear, after all yesterday's hyperbole, projected uppers, for next Thursday/Friday's 'event' seem to have gone up from -8 or so to -6C...Sleet on a fresh WNW-NW wind, eh? Yummy!

And now the ECM has produced another nonsense-chart...I do fear that, tomorrow morning, teddies will fly.

Was that the weekend when Spurs got thrashed 0-5 by the Gooners?

Great post from Tamara (even if I can't quite get my head around it) But, I think it's true to say, that all the teleconnection-based forecasts have been cautionary? There's a saying in scientific circles which broadly means 'all other things remaining the same'. It's just that, outwith the laboratory, that proviso is never met...So, until someone invents a completely perfect - in every way - model of the entire Earth-system, we're all at the mercy of chaos and probability? I think that's just the way it is; and shooting messengers won't change it...

If I recall February 1969 correctly (Beatles @ #1?) there was both a fantastic polar low that caused a raging blizzard coupled with a sudden 7C temperature drop, and a massive blizzard (LP from the south) that dumped many inches of snow on the English Midlands...And, as they often do, went on to cause days of havoc around Newcastle?

I remember a twenty-four-hour-long blizzard, in Milton Keynes, in March 1979 - which, I think, went on to cause all sorts of mayhem up near Newcastle?

There could be some interesting discussion (decanting of playthings from perambulators) in another place, over the next few days - showers might turn wintry, in NW Scotland, in about 7-8 days' time?? What on earth could go wrong!

We'll have none of that, thank you...No snow, please, we're British...

It's around here somewhere, usually when everyone else is enjoying T-Storms or snow? Anywho, I need to reanimate myself and stock up on muesli!

Well, I'm not complaining about how dry it is: there is a small but annoying infestation of light rain showers currently blighting the Triangle of Doom...And I didn't see them on the models!

And, considering that 'some have alluded to upgrades', what could possibly go wrong!

Warm air advection, advection, advection...?

Another funny run from the GFS: Snowmageddon @T+252 followed by a Beast from The East by 18/01...So let's see what the anointed ones make of that?

Use the Force, Luke - all will become clear...

Indeed...You can order online, from the V&A!

Not to worry: my son-in-law still hasn't used the snow-shovel I advised him to buy - In November 2013!

Reminds of 1974-75, Nick - the same thing happened then: northerly gales and showers, all at 7-8C...Maybe - I know it's a long shot - a late February-early March pattern-change might just save the day?

Of course it is; it's an archetypal homeodynamic system, IMO...Notwithstanding the relentlessly upward contribution from AGW, our planet's climate (and weather) has oscillated around a quasi-equilibrium point, for eons?

Pretty awful up here, SB: blowing a bit of a hoolie, sunny spells and occasional rain showers and it's a mind-numbingly boring 7C!

Regarding the above two posts, a back-loaded winter is now becoming a distinct possibility, IMO? Isn't (barring 209-10, '10-'11 and '12-'13) it always the same story: the usual suspects wax lyrical about what a wonderful winter is about to happen (if only this, that and the kitchen sink would do as I predicted)? Only for it not to happen...

With maybe an air of a Brian Rix farce?

Signs of a better easterly farther down the line, I see...Shades of '76 methinks!