PB22

This volcano is likely to result in at least one relationship breakdown. This is true. Someone I know went away last Thursday morning and told his other half he was going for a fishing weekend and would be back late Sunday. In fact he went abroad in Spain with his secretary who he is having an affair with, and last I heard (yesterday) he was still stranded out there! That's going to take some explaining me thinks!

I fear reprecussions further down the line when plane engines wear and tear much quicker due to ash damage and the engines aren't fully serviced after every flight as recommended.

I am absolutely staggered at what has developed tonight. A total disregard for public safety, I will never fly with British Airways again. I sincerely hope and pray that hundreds of people don't lose their lives because of greed. What happens if this situation occurs again in the future? Just keep flying until a disaster does occur?

Absolutely, if I had any plans to fly during the next week or so and my flight was going ahead, I would cancel them, regardless of importance. I wouldn't feel safe at all. It will be interesting to see what happens because I am sure the pressure must be building on the airlines big time. What price a human life though? Sure, it will be hugely frustrating for those people stranded, but I'd rather be safe and allive! Provided the volcano continues to erupt, it looks likely to me that atmospheric conditions will continue to favour the ash cloud heading in our direction for several days yet.

Just been watching the live webcam for the last ten minutes, and huge volumes of ash are being emitted! The white ash clouds look vivid as it gets dark! I think it starts getting light at around 6am tomorrow morning local time.

[quote name='nick2702' date='12 March 2010 - 22:40 '] Cheers Paul. Congrats on getting all your uni stuff sorted as well! I can't wait either, will be a totally new thing, will finally be surrounded by people who are as insane about the weather as I am [/quote] Cheers Nick. It's all good, and I am sure you will love every second of it!

Congratulations Nick, that is excellent news! I am also well on the way to university life, having formally been accepted onto the Geography and Environmental Management course at the University of Central Lancashire. I can't wait for September! All the best for the rest of your exams mate.

UKMO 12z has the depression centred over Ireland for much of next week, with it barely going anywhere. Plenty of cold rain or showers on the way, with any wintry stuff confined to the far north and over the hills. http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

The 12z UKMO is quite encouraging for northerly hunters: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm961.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1201.html http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Yes, I've seen almost like a shower train passing northeast to southwest to the west of me for much of this afternoon, was interesting to watch!

Just corrected your post

I'd agree Timmy. The GFS outlook ties in very well with today's Met Office 6 - 15 day outlook. A very good outlook for northern hills in particular in terms of snow potential. Lower down and towards the south, I wouldn't expect much other than cold rain if the 12z run came off. What north-easterly?!

Ooops, Sorry Mrsf. I stand corrected! :lol: New FAX chart for 12z tomorrow: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif Not as good as the old FAX for the same time (still here for a little while): http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif Far less in the way of trough features on the new chart, and those that are there are further south.

Its been fine and sunny here on the coast, don't think the cold sea temperatures are helping convection at all. Maybe the colder uppers tomorrow will help a bit, but not holding my breath. I would say the likihood of significant snow now is diminishing fast. The cold uppers arrive tomorrow morning: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs182.html Peak during early on Thursday morning: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs452.html And are gone by Thursday evening: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rmgfs572.html So we have a 36 hour window, if that, really starting from 6am tomorrow. Then of course we need precipitation! The 12z NAE isn't very keen on snowfall potential either, with only Kent looking likely to have the best chance: T+24: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/09/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021012_0912.gif T+30: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/09/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021018_0912.gif T+36: http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/09/basis12/ukuk/prty/10021100_0912.gif At least we all saw a good snowfall in January! :lol:

Indeed they are: http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack5.html I also feel that the cold North Sea temperatures aren't helping with convection here either...been a fine and mostly sunny day, very much like we get in spring and summer here by the coast with inland areas seeing the cloud and showers bubble up. Perhaps with the colder uppers here tomorrow a few more showers may develop.

I agree with your sentiments Stephen. I guess in previous mild winters it would be something to get interested in, but for the majority its just going to be a cool and settled spell, with the main thrust of cold having been shunted further south over the last couple of days. Still, some encouraging signs of spring beginning to approach, especially with the sun already having enough power to generate a few home grown showers today. Maybe a little interest for the far southeast over the next couple of days, otherwise a cool spell sums it up nicely. It could have been so much better though!

Today certainly got me in the mood for spring with the sunshine which felt very pleasant in the very light winds. Its surprising how much strength the sun has gained already, and I'm sure this difference will be noticed during next week's cold spell.

It was a lovely day here today with almost unbroken sunshine until late afternoon. This allowed temperatures to reach 10.3C, the highest its been for a few months! It felt positively springlike and very pleasant with the light winds. Now the northeasterly wind has picked up a tad and it is dull and misty, and much colder - down to 3.8C.

A very downbeat 5 day forecast on Radio Suffolk with Phil Garner a little while ago, indicating rather cloudy conditions dominating for the next 5 days, with daytime highs of around 4C, and a "small chance of a light dusting of snow". By next weekend turning less cold again. Can't say I totally agree with that forecast, but they are the professionals.

Anyone want a northerly after the easterly?

Great output tonight overall, especially compared to where we could have been headed not so long ago. Hopefully this cold spell will be a memorable end to my last winter here before I move to pastures new.

T+144: More snow for the southeast...cold and frosty elsewhere.

Oh my, ECM T+120 is awesome! Finishes off some sensational output from the "big three" tonight up to T+120. The FAX charts should be awesome later on!

Today's 12z JMA run doesn't come out until after 7pm. ECM 12z is underway, and so far so good... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-72.GIF?04-0 Great at T+96:

These were probably discussed earlier, but I haven't read all the posts from today. The ECM 00z ensembles for London were a stunning set weren't they: http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/services/ensemble_forecast.html Hopefully the 12z ECM will continue in a similar vein....and the action starts imminently!