PB22

Excellent summary Steve and I agree with pretty much everything you say. Certainly there remain's little sign of an early spring (in terms of temperature increases) and if anything winter could yet come back to bite harder than it has yet to do so this year for many. The sun may be getting stronger but if a chart like the ECM 00z T+240 were to verify then the strength of the sun would matter little. Interesting times.

It could stall but I highly doubt it. Nonetheless several hours of snow seems a good possibility for those of us up over high ground.

Hehe, the seedlings are safe! Not sure if we have had thunder. I think we have, but I am close to the main west coast railway line and the trains thundering past every few minutes don't help!

Oh, we have hail now.

The black cloud has arrived, and its..............raining. Also gusty winds now.

Very dark to my west and southwest....

Looking at the radar I think its another shower? You're in Darwen north of Bolton I assume?

Yes it got quite blustery for a while. All cleared through now.

Edit: pea sized hail in central Preston now.

Heavy rain shower in Preston but thats all.

More times than when all the indicators have suggested that one will happen!

Thanks for all your work on this Roger, was certainly an interesting exercise and was fun watching the countdown to D-day and how things developed.

Today's 12z chart: http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/bracka.html Quite pleased with my effort. Learnt absolutely nothing though because it was nothing but a pure stab in the dark! :lol:

Latest: 1525: The EU's energy chief Guenther Oettinger has said that in the coming hours "there could be further catastrophic events, which could pose a threat to the lives of people on the island". He told the European Parliament the Fukushima nuclear site was "effectively out of control". "The cooling systems did not work, and as a result we are somewhere between a disaster and a major disaster." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

Now being reported that reactor number 4 at Fukushima is on fire.

The Japanese have a record for being somewhat economical with the truth as far as nuclear goes. The way I view it, the fact the US moved their fleet which was 100 miles away speaks volumes.

With regards to the nuclear problems, its worth bearing in mind (this is only my opinion) that we only know what we are being told. The true hard facts may be scarier. Speaking from experience, the nuclear industry traditionally plays down problematic events, and one wouldn't like to think what any potential "real" situation is if (note the if) the Japanese aren't telling the full true story about what's going on at Fukushima.

Well said John. I watched the first 30 seconds of the video then gave up as it was clear that it was heading into, well, as Coast put it, Piers Corbyn terrority. So any respect soon went out of the window. The forecast was totally wrong, that's the fact of the matter. Yes there were strong winds and gales, but not in anyway as indicated by the original forecast. Therefore the forecast was wrong. It's like buying a can of baked beans to open them and find they are in fact green beans.

Another point, only important for model watchers really! The 18z GFS would not start coming out until 23:30, the 00z would be at 5:30DBST, 06z at 11:30DBST and 12z 17:30DBST. Means a lot of people could miss the crucial 18z run! :lol: Seriously though, I share the view that we should get into a time zone and stick with it. BST all year round would suit me. There does seem to be a false view (not here but amongst the general public) that changing the clocks to DBST would give us more hours of daylight, when it wouldn't!

Not sure how reputable this site is, but came across it: http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/ Thoughts go out to everyone down there.

Purely for a laugh.

Looks like ice crystals running down the camera lense!

My first (and probably my only) post on this thread. Credit could, and can be given to some extent, if Nick was forecasting a general pattern. However, Nick has given a very specific forecast with specific pressure readings for specific locations. Now, no disrepect to Nick here, but anyone who knows a thing or two about meterology will acknowledge the fact that it is impossible to come up with detailed pressure charts two months or so before a specific day like Nick has and expect to be correct. Whilst the general pattern may be right, Nick's forecast will have to go down as being wrong purely because he is being so specific and he has indicated the importance of this accuracy himself. We can already see that the chart Nick came up with for yesterday was technically wrong, although the overall pattern wasn't too far out. A 1005mb low over Spain where a 1030mb high actually was forecast to be can not go down as being right. At the same time, a 1025mb ridge of high pressure over Ireland is not the same as a 1040mb high sitting there. I don't begrudge anyone trying to come up with new methods of long range forecasting, but I do feel very strongly that it is a case of trying to run before you can even walk. Drawing pressure maps for 2 months out with self proclaimed high confidence is never going to work, whatever the methodlogy. However, going on and drawing a sequence of pressure maps for a specific time period 2 months out is just a waste of time to be frank, let alone going on to predict an event that is actually probably scientifically impossible to actually occur! No disrespect to you Nick, but it will never work. Stick to general patterns and give yourself some leeway and you may be onto something, but don't get into specifics because you will be fighting a losing battle from day 1.

Would expect it to extend to other areas overnight, yes.

Unless you forecast a deep freeze around the corner (without charts to back it up) then effort won't be recognised regardless of the quality of the post! The fog is back here in Preston, and its freezing fog too.