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Glacier Point

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Glacier Point last won the day on January 10

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About Glacier Point

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    Cumulonimbus

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    Male
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    Worcestershire
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    horses, horses, horses, italy, food, gardening and the landscape, oh yes, and the weather
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    Forecaster Centaurea Weather

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  1. On current evidence not enough. Wavebreaks timed for around 10th and 21st are the point of interest. Issues here are that the displacement of the SPV favours Arctic outbreaks across North America first, which is likely to fire up the northern arm of the jet until we get sufficient blocking structures in place to the north. We also have a base state that is devoid of strong leading (other than mute signal from Indian Ocean Dipole) and lacking any real impetus for change other than intraseasonal peturbations as westerly inertia is added and removed from the sub-tropical flows. On balance, whilst it's not what snow lovers want, happy with the start to winter being cyclonic in nature across much of Europe and rather average temps if nothing else it helps to temper expectations which may become even more of an issue as we head into (an even more cyclonic) January.
  2. Looks to me as if the early winter skirmishes are confirming two things: stratospheric polar vortex weaker than normal; stratospheric polar vortex displaced towards the Siberian Sector. That should temper enthusiasm for proper early season cold across Europe as it doesn't favour sufficient blocking strength to displace cold air masses south and westwards to the degree necessary. Tropospherically, our low frequency base state, which is nicely evident across OLR anomaly fields in the Tropics.... ... is about to undergo destructive interference in the next two weeks as a more coherent convective wave develops and pushes further east. This is a good signal for the PV to rev up a bit and westerly influence extend across the North Atlantic. When this relaxes, the low frequency state should take hold again on the hemispheric pattern. Deep upper low in the North / North-east Pacific a facet of this which should to further reinforcement of the weaker and displaced (Wave 1) SPV. Weak level blocking expected to re-establish to our north and north-east within a broadly north-west flow regime for second half of December. It will be interesting to see how much angular momentum rebounds in the next 2 weeks after being driven to lowish values of late, as this will be key to how much amplification in the upper level flow across the Pacific and Atlantic can be generated to tease out Arctic air masses within that regime.
  3. It's all automated stuff I know, but gives an insight into their fine mesh raw model outputs
  4. Hello, Met Office app now showing 80% chance heavy snow 21.00 here. Northward correction there '*if* this is to be believed...
  5. Still look to have potential. I have the SSW maxing in impacts end of month.
  6. What ! Man the barricades. Send scouts to somewhere near Halesowen. Oh, and watch out for these sneaky Wolveramptonites trying to pass themselves as Black Country. 06z runs not great viewing with PPN struggling to get above Bristol. All eyes on the radar for an upset if there is to be one. Key area looks like that push in the band towards Pembrokeshire.
  7. EC 06z rolling out, more elongated with Thursday's low and ppn further south. Midlands on pivot point
  8. EC 06z (yes that’ s not It a typo) taking the low through Brest south-east track). PPN to the north, but not much
  9. Day 9 sees GEFS mean Griceland ridge. We continue like this, and the pressure will be on for the Canadian lobe to de-camp and shift into the Atlantic. That's with a likely well entrenched cold pool across NW Europe. Go figure !
  10. Key thing to watch over the coming days is whether that mean T850 can get to -10 or below around the 27th/28th. Parallel 06z sort of painting a picture of what is the most likely trend towards early Feb.
  11. Actually more like 06z control, and imagine that being undercut. Repeat: Euro trough going nowhere (and I;m taking more February here).
  12. Extended ensemble means starting to reduce the Western US ridge in favour of Alaskan / Arctic ridges. Will be interesting to watch this trend as it opens the door for more westerly flow through the southern arm of the jet and undercutting . The Canadian lobe of the vortex should have no restraint and will bleed eastwards. The high expectation for February is for low pressure in the North Atlantic currently where we have a programmed anomalous ridge. That looks a reasonable bet given the cold air in situ currently Hudson Bay. The blanks to be filled in ... _____ pressure over Greenland .. ______ pressure over Scandinavia. Clue: one will be the inverse of the other.
  13. Once again, Euro trough omnipresent. Once we get cold, the permutations are all loaded towards the cold variants.
  14. Touchdown. GEFS mean AO values for 25th onwards around -2SD. CGEM +1 for the same time scale off 00z. Not sure what's going on there, but fair chance model is not picking up this downwell signal.
  15. Beyond all the model noise right now, one constant. That Euro trough is omnipresent, and an unusual feature in its persistence and depth. Once that becomes cold next week, the permutations become inherently wintry, and to a large degree self perpetuating. Whether that's mid Atlantic ridging pronounced enough to force an early Greenland ridge, jet dropping to our west on a NW-SE axis, cold Scandinavian ridges.
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