Monkeypants
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Posts posted by Monkeypants
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8 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:
End of the world for some areas. Still a relatively unusual calm sometimes breezy day up here.
you almost sound disappointed mate.from a selfish perspective I'm glad it moved south. having said that I've just opened my back door and got it straight in the face so the W/NW component is starting to kick in here in stoke on trent
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all this bickering is a joke and I got my post removed earlier for saying someone was trolling. as usual it looks like not what you say but who you are dictates the mods reaction. it's still just a normal windy day atm here is stoke but you guys in the south that are having to ride the brunt of the storm. if your in it it's bad that should be enough for anyone not "enjoying" the storm. as if your in it I'm sure it's not "enjoyable stay safe south coasters
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3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
The current Met O Fax chart sequence is probably the most accurate we have available. This takes it from off SW Ireland to exiting the NE coast of England.
A more accurate idea will be possible once the observation network over the UK and Eire starts to show the pressure falls, or isollobars. Once we get a hold on thos then, using old fashioned meteorology one can get a fairly accurate idea of its track for the following e hours and on from the largest fall of pressure in the 3 hour period shown on weather charts.
The chart link which shows this est is here
Weather Stations Analysis
METEOCENTRE.COMThis is the current 09z chart and you can see clearly where the forecaster has placed its current position. Once it gets into sw Ireland it will be easier to track, switch to the Uk map rather then Europe and N Atlantic
great post thankyou John. as always a balanced and very useful post for those of us who just want to know how it all comes together. I understand the excitement or nervousness of some but this can be often worse. thankyou again I've been waiting for your posts
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14 hours ago, Day_9 said:
Well, whatever you get enjoy the weather, for me it’s another one written off.
See you all for the chase again next year!
I wouldn't bother next year..find another hobby instead and avoid your disappointment...this year has not been cold but the synoptics on view have been fascinating (excuse spelling if incorrect) I've been following for years and some of the charts on view have been a first for me and many other amature enthusiast I'm sure
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11 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:I like the MJO forecast today, taken from weather is cool
Seems the MJO has suddenly vanished from the face of the Earth.
probably be more use than it has been....and more accurate
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white over in st3 good old fashioned streamer from the Liverpool bay area
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6 minutes ago, Benny123 said:
Looking to the Irish Sea for our next chance @MattStoke.
does look a good angle in Liverpool bay area to come into stoke if it holds itself together
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best snow for a while
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steady fluffy white stuff here in st3
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steady white stuff falling here in stoke on trent....what is it can anyone identify this weather phenomena
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1 hour ago, fergieweather said:
Hi Tim, in all fairness to UKMO these updates you mention are just one of the many forecast duties performed by (I assume still - certainly was, quite recently) a deputy chief forecaster on a busy shift of many pressing tasks, some of greater immediacy. They're predicated on the 2x weekly updates of extended ECMWF output, plus - when/if relevant - any conflicting strong signal from Glosea6. Thus the continuity of overall emphasis won't necessarily change day-to-day, as that would become an unfathomable mess reacting run-to-run. In similar vein, the BBC Monthly outlook is also tied to ECMWF updates, albeit over many recent weeks they've (DTN) purposely leaned to caution over that model's solution(s) beyond a ~2 week lead due to poor performance, heading instead in favour of statistical models/analogues. So the UKMO longer-lead switches aren't down to forecasters being volatile(!), but instead the modelling. They're compiled in good faith from the available evidence as they see it, in simplified format, very much as are the BBC ones (ie translating into a public-facing style the more 'technical' sub-seasonal forecasts that DTN issue 2x weekly). It can be a poison chalice writing these, especially in winter. Cheers.
one of the best posts I've read in a long time, I wish you were not so busy and could post more. I miss your quality yet easy to understand posts. Tamara is good but I spend most my time looking up what words mean.
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what I do not understand with the models (somebody much better than me may be able to explain) is...they all start on the same day with the exact same pattern on earth for that day. they get the same information added yet can be so different at 72hrs that after that period nothing makes sense to the average person. we then look for our desired weather pattern and when we find it then "that one must be correct" I get that they have different resolutions and parameters but I don't think I've ever seen such a mess with over amplification etc in the last 18months, with failed summer plumes and bust cold from high level blocking. has somthing changed within this time frame with these systems? or is it the case of over reliance on over smart technology actually trying to make things too specific.(sorry for the long post but I seem to have struggled more in last 12 months with models than I have in last 6yrs)
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correction back to rain in st3
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large flakes mixed in the rain in st3 atm probably more flakes than rain
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another great top up in ST3 2 days falling snow b4 winter starts...who needs a frdige
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no sunset pics just my coke in the snow to go with the vodka later. another good event in st3
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steady snow in st3
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do you wanna build a ......can't sadly off to work! but what a start to the season. and what a wild night of weather
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15 minutes ago, AltonMatthew said:
Morning guys. We are outside Alton in the Staffordshire Moorlands. Have to say whilst it is snowing heavy here the winds are causing some major issues in our village.
Power has been off since 2am and out there is surely more worthy of an Amber weather warning! The wind is intense!
Snow is drifting here. My sister in Meir Heath has had a lot of snow! More elevation there.
lived up there for over 20yrs as a kid meir heath is a different world in these type of marginal set ups. it's why I love my weather
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steady as she goes in st3 stoke on trent. shame I've got to go to work!
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6 hours ago, syed2878 said:
December 1990 though it was quite mild I remember eighth of December 1990 was a Saturday and the day before we had quite heavy rain however overnight into Saturday there was a big snowfall I remember because I was going to go and watch Villa against Tottenham. I really remember this because on that day and a few days after that cars couldn’t even go down our road because they were stuck in snow I was 12 at the time also I think it was one of the biggest snowfall since Jan 1987 and before February 1991.
remember the 1990 snowfall. heaviest I've ever seen. living 250m up in north staffs it was the only time I remember no electric and the drifts were so high it kept filling in the exhaust port for the gas boiler and opening the door to a wall of snow was insane. never seen anything like it since for sheer heavy prolonged chunky snow. was tge reason i got into weather as i went to bed with rain and woke up in the arctic lol
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1 minute ago, Mac_SE said:
Ah, ok, got you. And yes, agreed. Have been less and less into that thread over the last 10 years for that very reason.
was such a great place to learn a few years back. it was packed full of weather guru's
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
How about using the report button to alert the team (if we're online) if you think a post shouldn't be in there?
This isn't a full-time job.. we pop on here much like everybody else does, we don't necessarily check each thread when we do come on. We need to be alerted, and that's why the report button exists.
don't want anyone to get in trouble I'm just having bad day I guess. it wasn't a dig at the mods. just wanted to chill with a coffee and get stuck into some model reading etc and had a but if a "man-trum"
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1 minute ago, Mac_SE said:
What did you expect to see? Isn’t that precisely what this thread is for?
this thread yes mate. but the main model thread no. that's my point and why it was set up about 2 years ago to move the dung onto this page and leave the more detailed analysis on the model thread
Midlands Regional Weather Discussion
in Midlands Weather Discussion
Posted
steady snow here in st3 probably won't stick but it's definitely white and falling 2022 winter is here