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  1. Ossie please see below a table I drew up a while ago... Kind regards ACB Decade Mean days p.a 0c or less; Years with 5 or fewer days 0c or less; Years with 10-19 days 0c or less; Years with 20-39 days 0c or less; Years with more than 40 days 0c or less; Years with 10+ days 0c or less 1998-2007 3.0 8 0 0 0 0 1988-1997 6.8 4 3 0 0 3 1978-1987 15.4 1 4 3 0 7 1968-1977 7.1 4 3 0 0 3 1958-1967 14.0 1 3 1 1 5 1948-1957 10.9 5 3 2 0 5 1938-1947 16.8 4 3 2 1 6 1928-1937 7.8 5 2 1 0 3 1918-1927 7.1 5 3 0 0 3 1908-1917 8.4 5 2 1 0 3 1898-1907 10.1 2 7 0 0 7 1888-1897 17.9 1 2 4 0 6 1878-1887 16.8 3 2 3 1 6 1868-1877 10.1 4 1 2 0 3 1858-1867 14.6 2 5 3 0 8 1848-1857 13.2 2 4 2 0 6 1838-1847 18.5 0 4 5 0 9 1828-1837 11.8 3 4 2 0 6 1818-1827 14.5 2 3 3 0 6 1808-1817 21.5 0 4 5 1 10 1798-1807 18.2 0 6 3 0 9 1788-1797 14.4 2 3 2 1 6 1778-1787 19.4 1 3 3 1 7
  2. DJI closed at 7114.78 down over 250 points or 3.41% on the day. FTSE (depending on Nikkei/Hang Seng) may fall as low as 3750 tomorrow. Even if Iceberg's pessimism turns out to be wrong (i.e. a severe recession but not a 1930s style slump) there may well be at least another 9 months or more of falling markets. A bottom of perhaps 5000-5500? Perhaps 10-12 years before 14000 is recorded again? regards ACB
  3. I was at Junior School in the village of Eglinton not far from 'Derry and on the coastal plain of Lough Foyle. I can certainly recall a cold month with wintry showers but rarely amounting to much. I suspect that we were sheltered to an extent from north/north westerlies by the Inishowen peninsula. regards ACB
  4. Yes indeed...the relative ease by which snow was cleared in the 19c and early 20c is something of a recurrent theme in the contemporary press reports quoted by Mr Data. My guess is that in pre-National Assistance times (pre 1929?) the authorities were able to call upon a pool of unemployed working class men to clear the snow. regards ACB
  5. Surrey 22/4 1979 and late April Oxford 1981; about 1" 9am on both occasions. April 2008 south London? regards ACB
  6. That occurred to me...from the Victoria History of Middlesex (before 1850): "In the late 18th and early 19th centuries the spread of villas along some of the lanes branching off High Road was more noticeable than the growth of separate hamlets...The residential nature of most new building gave late-18th-century Tottenham the appearance of an extended, semi-rural suburb rather than a town. Industry, apart from brick-making, was virtually confined to riverside mills until the construction of a lace-factory in 1810 and a silk-factory five years later...As late as 1859 the authoress [sic] Mrs. J. H. Riddell described Tottenham as a very quiet and secluded town, where fortunes could be made by enterprising traders or craftsmen who secured the patronage of the local gentry. West Green, where she lived, might be a hundred miles from London and did not take easily to strangers from Tottenham itself..." The description of Tottenham as a 'town' presumably came after the arrival of the Northern and Eastern Railway at Tottenham Hale in 1840. So, yes, in 1828 I would say a blend of country houses, smart outer suburban villas and farm land. regards ACB From: 'Tottenham: Growth before 1850', A History of the County of Middlesex: Volume 5: Hendon, Kingsbury, Great Stanmore, Little Stanmore, Edmonton Enfield, Monken Hadley, South Mimms, Tottenham (1976), pp. 313-317. URL: http://www.british-history.ac.uk/report.aspx?compid=26985. Date accessed: 17 November 2008.
  7. "1300s; What was this "droghte of Marche" that Chaucer refers too? Is he suggesting that it was normal, or at least common, to have a very dry late winter/early spring with "Zephirus with his sweete breeth" suddenly turning up sometime in April?" 1. Impossible to know in any detail now whether 13thc late winter/early springs were particularly dry. 2. However dry easterlies are, I believe, more prominent in Feb/March than other months in the south east. 3. Whilst 20thc data for the south east shows February to be either the driest or one of the three driest months on average there is little evidence to suggest that April is more than marginally wetter than March. 4. Reading the first 10 lines or so of 'The General Prologue' I suspect that the reference to March "droghte" may be broader/metaphorical; i.e. contrasting the absence of growth/life in both farms and the countryside immediately after winter with lambing, crop growth and leaf bud evident in April as days lengthen and temperatures rise. regards ACB
  8. Many thanks Mr D. Do you have the date, location and record maximum for October 1985 please? regards ACB
  9. If you mean the highest temperature ever then 28c at Sumburgh Haed on 6th August 1910. regards ACB
  10. Kevin, almost as striking is the frequency of daily maxima above 80f in the preceding three years. Assuming that those temperatures were recorded from, say, mid May to mid September (about 120 days), that means approximately 22-29% of days recorded maxima of 80f or more! regards ACB
  11. aldergove.docaldergrovetext.docPH recently complained that NI summers had recently been ‘poor’ and that with GW he expected better summers and specifically summers with maxima exceeding 90f… 1. What do we mean by a ‘good summer’? 2. The dangers of reliance upon memory alone; 3. The implications of AGW for regional seasonal weather patterns. 1. In NI it is customary to define summer as including May (it is often the driest/sunniest month although never the warmest) which I have included in the table attached. There are, I suppose, three main factors in judging summer weather in NI: temperature, sunshine and rainfall (I exclude Relative Humidity as it is rarely an issue in NI and in any event I have no data). However simply giving data for mean rainfall, sunshine and temperature whilst useful for a meteorologist is less so for the layman: in summer average maxima are more useful than the mean, so too would be a measure of dull/sunless days and the number of dry days. It is worth pointing out too that in a maritime climate only rarely can an entire 3 month season exhibit uniform characteristics, still less a 4 month season. Thus it becomes difficult save in all but the most exceptional seasons to accurately sum up an entire season as ‘good’. Finally in my experience (I am ¾ NI, boarded in NI for over 2 years and have many relatives in NI) unrealistic whining about summer is one of the things that unite all NI residents: more so even than in England there is an unrealistic expectation of weeks of unbroken warm sunshine and blue skies. 2. Individual recollections of individual months’ weather (let alone entire seasons) are notoriously unreliable unless backed up by data or diaries. 4. Attempts to predict regional/seasonal climatic changes from AGW are tentative and uncertain. Not all regions/seasons will warm at the same rate (some may even cool). More difficult still are attempts to predict rainfall/cloud cover patterns. Finally no AGW proponent argues that AGW entails an unbroken linear year on year warming. The expectation that NI’s equable damp and cloudy climate can suddenly be transformed into an approximation of southern France is nonsensical. The highest recorded temperature in NI is 30.8°C at Knockarevan (near Belleek, Co. Fermanagh) on 30 June 1976, and at Shaw's Bridge, Belfast (Co. Antrim) on 12 July 1983. I would be surprised if those records are not exceeded in the next 5-10 years if current trends continue although 90f (32.3c) may take longer. See the 2 attachments for details... regards ACB
  12. The terms 'Manley' and 'Hadley' refer to the late Professor Gordon Manley (died 1980) and to the Hadley Centre, an establishment set up by the Met Office to undertake research into climatology. Manley, a highly respected climatologist, made it his life's work to establish an instrumental record of average monthly temperatures in England. He originally chose to use data from Oxford and the Lancashire plains to give a record of western central England. Oxford was chosen because the Radcliffe Observatory had records going back many years. In 1974 Manley published the second of 2 papers in which he set out his methodology and data giving a continuous series of monthly average temperatures from 1659 to 1973. From 1974 the MO assumed responsibility for continuing and developing the CET series. Parker et al in 1992 both continued the monthly series to 1991 and introduced a new series of daily CET data starting in 1772. Thereafter Parker et al in 2005 introduced data sets from 1878-1973 showing monthly and daily minima/maxima. All CET series have been continued to date. Controversially Parker/UKMO made a series of changes to the recording stations from which the CET was derived. At various times the following stations were used: Cambridge Botanical Gardens, Ross on Wye, Malvern, Squires Gate, Ringway. The current stations are Pershore, Rothamstead and Stonyhurst. Complex adjustments have been made to try to ensure homogeneity of data. Philip Eden (www.climate-uk.com) has assumed Manley's mantle and produces a rival CET series (dating back to 2003 but to be expanded back to 1974 where Manley's original research ended). Philip is concerned that by adding eastern stations such as Cambridge/Rothamstead, abandoning Oxford in favour of Gloucstershire/Worcestershire, using the coastal station of Squire's Gate (Blackpool Airport as was) the MO have not been true to Manley's work. In addition he has reservations as to the use of data from Stonyhurst on the grounds that the MO had admitted that its summer data had been unreliable and required significant adjustment. Philip has published a graph purporting to show that the MO CET data is less reliable: taking the MO England and Wales data for 1970-2003 he compares his and the MO CET data for 2002-2005. It is interesting to note the increasing negative anomalies in the MO CET data following their last change of recording stations in November 2004. Generally the Manley CET is close to the Hadley CET but there are months where there is a difference of 0.3 or 0.4c. So far as I am aware Manley is now slightly 'warmer' than Hadley. Regardless of Philip's sterling work the only 'official' CET is the Hadley CET. regards ACB
  13. Indeed nor have we experienced a January as warm as January 1921 at 7.3. Whilst January 1916 is by some way the mildest on record it is far from being the most anomalously mild compared to the then applicable CET: January 1796 at 7.3 was 5.1c above the 1761-1790 mean of 2.2... I imagine that barring some unforeseen calamity it is almost impossible for us to record a January CET as anomalously mild as that of 1796: 'even larger teapot' and warm SSTs notwithstanding a January CET of 9.3 would imply average maxima of about 12c and average minima of 6.5c. To equal the relative anomaly of 1916 (+4.0) would require 8.2...difficult but not entirely beyond the bounds of possibility. regards ACB
  14. January 1795 at -3.1 is the coldest month in the entire CET series with only 1684 (-3), 1814 (-2.9) and 1740 (-2. coming close. The mean January CET for 1761-1790 was 2.2 (a full 2c below the 1971-2000 mean and a potent reminder of the severity of many winters during the 'Little Ice Age'). Thus January 1795 was an astonishing 5.3 below the 1760-1791 mean. Nonetheless even though January 1963 at -2.1 was a full 1.0 less cold than 1795 its' anomaly from the 1931-1960 mean of 3.5 was an even greater 5.6. The CET for January 1796 was 7.3 (joint second mildest with 1921) and the 5th coldest month of the year. Whilst 1916 holds the record for the mildest January at 7.5, 1796 stands out as being the mildest January relative to the immediately preceding 30 year mean of 2.2. Thus January 1796 was 5.1 above the then 30 year mean. To put this in context, in this decade we would need to record a January CET of 9.3 to equal the anomaly... A difference of 10.4 between the same month in successive years is unprecedented in the CET series. A useful reminder too that there will always be variations, sometimes very considerable, around any mean temperature and that the temptation to invest individual monthly data with undue significance should be avoided. regards ACB [data from UKMO Hadley]
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