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A mean of 13.8C here today. You have to go forward to 10th June until that is equal to the 1991-2020 average. The max was 16.3C - the same as 17th May and min 11.3C, the same as the 30th June. Staggering really.

June and July 2006 were better than 2018, but the summer as a whole was better in 2018 as all three months were decent. August 2006 was cool, dull and wet which brings down the summer a little. Here 2018 was 0.4C warmer, had 46.7mm less rain and 16 hours more sunshine than 2018. 2006 had 33 days with measurable rain compared to 24 in 2018. 2018 also had a warm, dry and exceptionally sunny May before it whereas May 2006 was extremely wet with average temps and sunshine. Summer 2022 had less rainfall and more sunshine than both 2006 and 2018 here and also had a warm, sunny and extremely dry Spring before it, so that probably tops both.

Cheshire Freeze Its just typical really. We're on a hell of a run of above average months though compared to the 1961-90 average. Even compared to the 1991-2020 average we haven't gone more than 0.5C below since December 2022. I wouldn't be surprised if one of the Spring months manages it. It is the season that has managed more months more than 1C below the most recent 30 year average than any other season: 7 since 2013. Winter has seen 4, Autumn 2 and summer just one.

kold weather I genuinely think its a case of the flip-flopping nature of rainfall these days as I mention above. In my own figures, every decade has a ten year average of between 638 and 690mm with the most recent 10 year average being 675mm. We just seem to go from extremely dry periods to wet ones now. Some examples here: 2008: 800.4mm 2009: 591.2mm 2011: 455.8mm 2012: 827.0mm 2013: 491.0mm These are just over years, but it can also be seasons: Winter 2020: 206.4mm Spring 2020: 34.2mm Summer 2020: 233.6mm We just sort of get stuck in a rut these days.

Weather-history Yes, even here in the more sheltered east the rainfall is becoming notable. Wettest rolling 12 month periods here since 1980: 969.0mm: March 2019 - February 2020 921.2mm: April 2019 - March 2020 920.8mm: June 1980 - May 1981 911.6mm: September 2019 - August 2020 895.2mm: March 2023 - February 2024. Winter is currently 2nd wettest since 1980, Autumn was 4th wettest, Summer 10th wettest and Spring 11th wettest. 2023 was 2nd wettest as a whole. As seems to be the trend these days we flip flop between exceptionally wet and exceptionally dry. 2019-2020 was a very wet period, 2021-2022 very dry indeed and now 2023-24 is very wet again. March 2021 to October 2022 only had 773.8mm in 20 months.

I rate Summer 2012 as worse here despite the floods in 2007. 2007 had over 100mm more rain than 2012 but it all fell in the period 12th June - 26th July. From 27th July - 18th September 2007 only 6 days had measurable rain. August only had 51% of average rainfall and managed 210 hours of sunshine. 2012 was just consistently wet, dull and cool and also came after a shocking April and May (apart from the last third of May). Like 2007 the best month was August, but that failed to make up for the rest of the summer and it finished with over 100 hours less sunshine than 2007 and only topped 25C twice. The summer index values bear this out. 2007 finished on 221 but 2012 was the second worst on record after 1987 with just 194.

Top 10 dullest Februaries here since 1980: 1980: 36 hrs 1993: 51 hrs 1991: 52 hrs 2010: 55 hrs 2011: 56 hrs 2009: 57 hrs 1984: 58 hrs 2006: 58 hrs 1982: 59 hrs 1994: 65 hrs 2024 so far up to the 11th: 17 hours! Today will add a few hours, but it looks poor for the next few days.

In Absence of True Seasons Its already the wettest winter here since 1984 and still 18 days to go!

53.0mm here in the last 4 days meaning an 8th consecutive wetter than average month just 11 days in. Flooding everywhere too. I imagine it's grim just to the North of here around the River Hull. Areas there have been under water over 2 months now.

Oh look another 25mm of rain overnight meaning just 11 days in February has had more than the expected rain for the entire month. Flooding everywhere again and an 8th consecutive wetter than average month.

baddie I'd say its looking pretty likely. 10 days in and nowhere outside of Eastern Scotland has seen more than 20 hours so far.

North-Easterly Blast Sorry, but the cold September = cold winter theory is just total nonsense. The coldest September of the last 30 years was 2015 with 12.7C on the CET and it was followed by the mildest winter in the series. 2013 was also below average and we all know what followed that. The idea that a 30 day period we choose to call a month has any reliable bearing on what happens months later is thin to say the least. The fact is, most months are warmer than average now and getting just one below average is difficult so regardless of what September does it'll probably lead to a mild winter.

Frigid That's the thing, you'll still get spells that are as cool, but no longer months. We cant sustain cooler than average weather long enough these days. Its the same in winter with just eight sub-3C CET winter months since 1988 (1979 to 1987 had nine alone). Between 1986 and 1991 we had a 11.9C June (1991), 14.6C July (1988) and 13.7C August (1986). The closest we've got to those values in the last 30 years are 13.5C, 15.3C and 15.4C. My point is, I think those values are beyond us in 99.9% of cases, but the weather itself has not changed massively.

I'm of the view that our summers haven't fundamentally changed other than they've become warmer on average. What was once a "cool" 14.5C CET summer would now be a 16C summer but the weather is similar, albeit with warmer extremes that are more easily attained. With that in mind, I think a month like August 1986 is probably beyond us now, whereas a 1976-like summer might be well into the 18s for the CET. I dont think any amount of background warming is going to make UK summers any more reliable. We'll always get those dreadful days with frontal rain and no sun - it's just instead of it being 14C it might be 16C or 17C eventually.

A dull, cool easterly Spring would be the final insult after this horror of an Autumn and winter. Probably a guarantee then!

cheese Indeed, we had 70 hours here in January compared to the 1991-2020 average of 61 hours. However the issue was that 37 hours of that came in the 5 day period mid-month. We've had a lot of days with little sun, 37 days since 4th December have had an hour or less of sunshine. This came after similar spells in October and November: 8.1hrs between 20th October and 4th November and 12.6 hours between 13th-25th November. The next "targets" are an 8th consecutive wetter than average month and the first ever February without an air frost (0.1C min so far). Both are on course for now.

Nick L Horrors like this winter seem to come along every few years now. 2013/14, 2015/16, 2016/17, 2019/20 and 2023/24. Apart from 5 days mid-January where we had a few crisp, sunny days, it has been relentlessly dull, wet, mild and windy. Barely a frost even. Its like as the climate warms any interesting or pleasant weather disappears and we're left with the rubbish. That goes for pleasant warm spells and thunderstorms in the summer aswell.

It'll be the amount of rain in 24 hours that is the talking point in these parts. Up to 13.2mm and there's that huge band approaching from the south. Wouldn't be surprised to get not far off the entire average February amount in total.

I wonder what new flaws that brings?

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I hate these setups - and they literally dominate over proper spells these days. Overcast, dull and persistent rain (11mm so far) with a temp of 2C and strong easterly wind. Meanwhile inland get a winter wonderland. It's miserable weather.

MIKE LEVITT These setups have always been rubbish for us. Its the death of the proper northerly that has been the killer for our area. All too often they are north-westerlies these days that last barely 24-24 hours. A good NNE pushing the showers inland a bit is what we'd need. They're extinct though!

Just turned to sleet / wet snow here. Temp down to 1.9C so looks good for further inland.

This looks like a non-event to me. UKV has rain or sleet everywhere but those areas with good elevation. The band hits in the afternoon at the warmest time and has above freezing dewpoints everywhere but the Pennines. Just not cold enough really.

Atleastitwillbemild It hasnt really been abnormal though and certainly no records shattered. January had 110-150% of normal sunshine in Wiltshire depending on where you are for example: 2023 as a whole was average or just slightly below: I think the issue is the sunshine we have had has come in large blocks with weeks of rubbish in between. Mid-January was very sunny during that colder spell, but either side was pretty dire. All of 2023 has been like this. Rather than an even distribution of sunshine it was more segregated which makes it feel worse I think.

Its actually increased to 9.3C today after yesterday had a mean of 10.1C. "Only" 7.6C required to beat the record now.