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The PIT

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Everything posted by The PIT

  1. ECM kills it off as well. So chances pretty small.
  2. Very uncertain this one so may not even happen. If it does there should plenty of widespread flooding and plenty of wind damage. Note I'm calling this the 2nd storm as Helena doesn't count as a storm and got unnecessary warnings and too much attention once it was clear that it wasn't going to be anything special bar the warmth it would bring.
  3. The PIT

    General Volcanic Activity Thread!

    KILAUEA VOLCANO (VNUM #332010) 19°25'16" N 155°17'13" W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE Kīlauea summit and lower East Rift Zone On Kīlauea Volcano's lower East Rift Zone (LERZ), no incandescence was visible overnight in the collapse pit within the fissure 8 cone. Minor fuming is visible during the day. Seismicity and ground deformation remain low at the summit of Kīlauea. Small aftershocks from the magnitude-6.9 earthquake in early May are still being generated on faults located on Kīlauea's South Flank. No collapses within Puʻu ʻŌʻō crater have been observed over the past few days. Rates of tilting throughout the East Rift Zone are much lower than those observed during the period of major eruptive activity. There has been no change in seismicity during the past week. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates at the summit, Puʻu ʻŌʻō, and LERZ are drastically reduced; the combined rate is less than 1,000 tonnes/day, which is lower than at any time since late 2007. SO2 emission rates from LERZ vents were below the detection threshold of the measurement technique when last measured on Sept. 11. Minor amounts of H2S are being emitted at the summit and at Puʻu ʻŌʻō. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) continues to closely monitor Kīlauea’s seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions for any sign of reactivation, and maintains visual surveillance of the summit and LERZ. HVO will continue to issue daily updates and additional messages as needed.
  4. Not to bad really in Sheffield we just hit 49 mph but still brought a few trees down I hear. No doubt due to them being in leaf. So as far as warnings normally go the winds shouldn't trigger a warning cough cough The met office warning system is a though joke. If Helena got a yellow today should have been red. I think the met office disappeared into alternative reality for Helena. Nearly as bad as the storm that never was and must come in at number two. At least the twigs on the trees moved a little for Helena I suppose and I guess there were a few traumatized crisp packets on the morning concerned. Sundays storm still uncertain may not even develop and if it does still may disappear further south into France.
  5. Still uncertainty all round if the ECM backs away I would the chances are increasingly unlikely. Next few runs should settle it. Normal practice is to downgrade as we get nearer the time. Ali the exception to this while Helena followed the downgrade path religiously into insignificance.
  6. Sunny Sheffield at 14.6C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall up to 24.3mm 37.2% of the monthly average. Should be above average by tomorrow and then it should fall away if the GFS is correct as shows some very cold nights in the pipeline and some cold days. All could change by the enxt few runs though. So a good chance of getting a below average month here.
  7. After a mild start a blustery day with sunny spells and brief showers this afternoon Max temp 19.2C now 15.9C, Barometer 1006mb rising, Wind F4 WSW, Max gust 49 mph High average 26 mph rainfall 0.2mm
  8. Dry very mild with a gentle breeze Temp 14.2C, Barometer 1006mb falling, Wind F3 SSW, Rainfall since midnight nil
  9. Yes embarrassing warnings yesterday. I think the met was living in a parallel Universe even their own criteria said a warning shouldn't have been issued. Anyways Saturday night and Sunday could be very interesting if it comes off. Should result in flooding and wind damage. ECM has now picked it up so the odds have gone up a bit.
  10. The PIT

    General Volcanic Activity Thread!

    Not so quiet at AVO SEMISOPOCHNOI VOLCANO (VNUM #311060) 51°55'44" N 179°35'52" E, Summit Elevation 2625 ft (800 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE Unrest continues at Semisopochnoi volcano. The onset of continuous seismicity yesterday prompted AVO to raise the Aviation Color Code and Volcano Alert Level to YELLOW/ADVISORY. Retrospective analysis of satellite data from September 10 shows evidence of a small ash deposit on the flanks of the north cone of Mount Cerberus, which may have resulted from two minor seismic tremor bursts recorded on September 8. This satellite imagery, combined with a further increase in seismic tremor amplitudes today, prompted AVO to raise the Aviation Color Code and Volcano Alert Level to ORANGE/WATCH. While the recent ash deposit suggests the potential for ash emissions coincident with elevated seismicity, there have been no ash emissions observed in cloudy satellite images around the time of today's tremor increase. Furthermore, there has been no eruptive activity recorded on regional pressure sensors in Adak, although current atmospheric conditions limit signal propagation between Semisopochnoi and Adak. Semisopochnoi is monitored with an on-island seismic network, and remotely by satellite and lightning sensors. An infrasound array on Adak Island may detect explosive emissions from Semisopochnoi with a 13 minute delay if atmospheric conditions permit. VENIAMINOF VOLCANO (VNUM #312070) 56°11'52" N 159°23'35" W, Summit Elevation 8225 ft (2507 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE Eruption of a lava flow from Veniaminof volcano's summit cone likely continues, as suggested by continued observations of elevated seismic activity, nighttime incandescence in webcam images, and elevated surface temperatures in thermal satellite data. No significant ash emissions have been observed. Veniaminof Volcano is monitored with a local real-time seismic network, which will typically allow AVO to detect changes in unrest that may lead to an explosive eruption. Rapid detection of an ash-producing eruption would be accomplished using a combination of seismic, infrasound, lightning, and satellite data. GREAT SITKIN VOLCANO (VNUM #311120) 52°4'35" N 176°6'39" W, Summit Elevation 5709 ft (1740 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW Low-level unrest continues at Great Sitkin Volcano. Earthquake activity remains elevated. No significant activity was observed in partly cloudy satellite images over the past day. Great Sitkin Volcano is monitored with a local real-time seismic network, which will typically allow AVO to detect changes in unrest that may lead to an explosive eruption. Rapid detection of an ash-producing eruption would be accomplished using a combination of seismic, infrasound, lightning, and satellite data. CLEVELAND VOLCANO (VNUM #311240) 52°49'20" N 169°56'42" W, Summit Elevation 5676 ft (1730 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: ADVISORY Current Aviation Color Code: YELLOW Low-level unrest continues at Cleveland Volcano. Elevated surface temperatures were observed in satellite images over the past day. However, no significant activity has been detected in seismic or pressure sensor (infrasound) data. Cleveland volcano is monitored by only two seismic stations, which restricts AVO's ability to detect precursory unrest that may lead to an explosive eruption. Rapid detection of an ash-producing eruption may be possible using a combination of seismic, infrasound, lightning, and satellite data.
  11. The PIT

    General Volcanic Activity Thread!

    all quiet on the Hawaiian front KILAUEA VOLCANO (VNUM #332010) 19°25'16" N 155°17'13" W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m) Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE Kīlauea summit and lower East Rift Zone On Kīlauea Volcano's lower East Rift Zone (LERZ), the collapse pit is the central part of a slowly subsiding lava surface that previously filled the fissure 8 cone. No incandescence is visible overnight while minor fuming is visible during the day. Seismicity and ground deformation remains low at the summit of Kīlauea. Aftershocks from the magnitude-6.9 earthquake in early May are still being generated on faults located on Kīlauea's South Flank. No collapses within Puʻu ʻŌʻō crater have been observed over the past few days. Rates of tilting throughout the East Rift Zone are much lower than those observed during the period of major eruptive activity. There has been no change in seismicity during the past week. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates at the summit, Puʻu ʻŌʻō, and LERZ are drastically reduced; the combined rate is less than 1,000 tonnes/day, which is lower than at any time since late 2007. SO2 emission rates from LERZ vents were below the detection threshold of the measurement technique when last measured on Sept. 11. Minor amounts of H2S are being emitted at the summit and at Puʻu ʻŌʻō. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) continues to closely monitor Kīlauea’s seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions for any sign of reactivation, and maintains visual surveillance of the summit and LERZ. HVO will continue to issue daily updates and additional messages as needed.
  12. Now on the ECM as well so chances of it happening go up a bit.
  13. This looks to make Helena a mere kitten. Since we had warning for nothing for Helena I guess the warnings should be hyper red for this one and everyone advised to dig a huge hole to survive. Troops should enforcing a curfew starting tonight and lasting to Friday. Main action to the north us but still breezy.
  14. Sunny Sheffield up to 14.5C -0.4C below normal. Rainfall 15.7mm 24% of average.
  15. Warm day with sunny spells after early morning drizzle cleared away. Breezy but nothing of note Max temp 20.6C now 20.1C, Barometer 1004mb rising. Wind F4 SW, Rainfall trace
  16. All the attention on Helena at the moment but this feature seems to be sneaking under the radar and looks like to bring strong winds to much more of the country and much more widespread heavy rain. If it turns up could bring some widespread issues with trees generally still in full leaf.
  17. Dreadful embarrassing at least the warnings have gone. The storm that never was version 2
  18. Embarrassing morning for the met this morning as we have another storm that never was. A dry warm start and hardly a gust of wind. At least the warnings have gone this morning but old forecast on TV is still talking about 50 to 60 gusts. Temp 15.5C, low 14.3C, Barometer 998mb falling, Wind F2 yes force 2 S, Rainfall since midnight nil
  19. Yes some big storms coming and since we have a warning for 25mph gusts tonight the world will end on Sunday for us. The warning system is simply broken.
  20. I cannot understand why we are in weather warning area. No strong winds forecast until Wednesday when it starts ramping up and we are not in the warning area for that. So winds gusting to 25 mph tonight and a warning, Tomorrow 42 mph a warning, Wednesday 48 mph no warning. I wouldn't issue one for 48 mph but the GFS is showing much more than that. At this rate we will get a warning when a crisp packet moves. I guess on Sunday when 60 to 70 is possible the end is nigh for us.
  21. So early drizzle then dry and warm with sunny spells Max temp 21.7C, now 20.1C, Barometer 1007mb falling, Wind F4 SSW, Rainfall trace
  22. No. Warnings need to valid and updated regularly. If there's no threat by their own grading structure they should be removed.
  23. Downgrading continues and warnings still up. The active storms later in the week have also been downgraded somewhat but still stronger than Helena.
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