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Paul Sherman

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Posts posted by Paul Sherman


  1. Wasnt meant to be patronising but if you are studying Meteorology am guessing at UEA then surely you could see the Low Pressure was losing intensity (Dan calls it Upper Forcing) then you could see that the Northern Extent of the Precip was struggling and with no heavy precip at 36f dewpoints it simply wasnt going to fall as snow, as the precip shield has waxed and waned away moving out towards the east when the favourable conditions (EG Dp's around freezing were there) the precip wasnt strong enough for the Norfolk area.

    I always like to go through the event after it has happened to try and see why things happened and why things never happened and wrote a paper on the infamous 2009 Snow Event that many Met Students have asked to do studies on (That event was triggered by an Inversion around the Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex Coasts) that stopped the Snow from reaching the ground other than polystyrene balls with cloud tops at 37,000ft and Uppers of -14. The same Convective storms moved from the ENE to WSW and gave over a foot of snow to London.

    Its all a learning process, was not meant to be patronising in any way


  2. 2 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

    But then tonight wasn't supposed to be marginal in the East, but in the end the west got the snowfall. 

    Erm

    Yes it was 100% Marginal, what forecasts have you been watching for the last few days ??

    If you want to see the Video I shared from Dan yesterday it pretty much went as he said it would, a period of rain with dewpoints not condusive to snow, lowering as the undercutting cold air spread from the NW turning the rain to snow. You were just unlucky to be under the part of the precip that shrank in size and intensity meaning the evaporative cooling process did not affect your part of Norfolk. It might be a good idea to learn the mechanics and processes of weather dynamics before making statements like that


  3. Just now, Sarah Anne said:

    Sorry im ashford ... will update.

    Its just ive been waiting but your post suggessted it was all gone everywhere . So was thinking i may as well switch radar off if youre saying that with your experience x

    Thanks for putting in your location, just to confirm was not talking about the radar earlier sorry for the confusion Sarah. Crossed wires I think

    Thursday looks a lot better for all the region as much less marginal unless you are within 5-10 miles of the Coast. And it should be more solidly 2-5cm across the board.


  4. 1 minute ago, Sarah Anne said:

    Over for all se or just for your neck of woods. 

    Was just finding it interessting that when the Cold Undercut occured there was a narrow strip of Dewpoints that stayed around 1-2c from Mid Kent through SE Essex and up into Suffolk and Norfolk probably brought about by the SE Onshore flow which kept it as rain longer in those areas. The map that was shon earlier shoed it brilliantly - Dont know where your neck of the woods is as you dont have a location on your profile


  5. 2 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    According the radar we're getting the heaviest precip right now!

    Probably has something to do with this.

    pointrosee.png

    Gap by kent from the channel flow which then extends to the esturay which just keeps it going north. You may need to click/press it.

     

    There you go, that shows that perfectly, the wedge of warmer dps and the reason that slice is rain


  6. Really is interesting the areas North of the Estuary with that wedge of warmer dewpoints and solid rain, the colder undercutting has no doubt gone through with the reports of snow now South of the Thames further East into Kent. 

    Here is hoping Thursday's does not suffer the same fate North of the warmer Estuary. Am surprised about Chelmsford still having rain though as thats fully 14 miles NW of the Estuary


  7. 1 minute ago, staplehurst said:

    It has been mentioned multiple times that this event will largely start as rain, and then gradually transition to sleet/snow from west to east as the cold undercut takes place. So it shouldn't really be much of a surprise if you've got rain at this early stage in the evening? It is all going to the original plan...

    Dan, Mate dont waste your breathe, will message you on Facebook later 


  8. 3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    I think judging by the national forecast (earlier) when the undercut of cold air is experienced the front is expected to be quite narrow over the south east...

    Wasnt privvy to that Forecast nor would I watch the drivel they spill out, but Dans Video laid it out pretty well and its pretty much going to plan from what he said.


  9. 1 minute ago, beerandkebab said:

    started off as 1 hour rain here on the Marlborough Down nr Swindon and for the last 30 mins has been moderate snow Paul, and surprisingly settling readily as the undercut digs in.....currently 2.1C with a dewpoint of -0.4C for reference

    Thanks buddy, thats the sort of report which is vital to areas further east.

    Enjoy that settling snow, should get a top up on Thursday as well.

    And the growing signs of High Pressure to our North East on the models gathers pace for the 2nd week of February as well.

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