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Paul Sherman

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Posts posted by Paul Sherman


  1. 8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Yeah Paul that looks about right to me for places north of the Thames, looks like the main action is decent south of that region, and even that area looks slightly iffy if some of the 12z suite were correct.

    Just got to hope that some of the more aggressive models are correct...quite honestly anything could happen with it.

    Yh sorry Darren that's only for East Anglia would be good to see a Map for areas South and West of the Thames agree


  2. Not expecting much in SE Essex just a dusting but go about 45 miles (As the Crow Flies) South and West to say Junction 6 of the M25 and it should be a whole lot better. One of those fronts that edges North and East from the SW and loses intensity the further North and East it goes, seen these set ups countless times and never ever have we done well from it in Essex.

    Saturday might be our saving grace with the NW Moving Precip from La Frrance


  3. 41 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

    That doesn’t happen often. It is a slush fest most winters.

     

    When Mother Nature picks on me whilst chasing Tornadoes in the Spring I go outside cry a bit throw a tantrum esp when the Tornado happens on a storm 50 miles South of me 

    What I am getting at is with Ma Nature it's not personal every event is different and it's pot luck where the Lps go and where the Precip falls 

    You are sounding hard done by and you really are not as Dan says parts of Norfolk had just under a foot from an Easterly 11 months ago 

     


  4. 6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    The point is - We can only go based on what the models are showing us. It looked likely that many areas of this region would see a fairly prolonged period of snowfall after a short period of rain. Unfortunately as Paul explained some areas were under a slither of above freezing dew points thanks to a South-Easterly flow.  

    Models do not always pick up tiny details like that, in the grand scheme of things they're not important but when it comes down to hyper local detail it can make a big difference, as tonight has shown. 

    Rain/Sleet/Snow mix was always on the cards, some areas did well, some areas didn't do so well. I suspect the slowing of the frontal band helped areas further West to see snow because cold air was able to undercut a little earlier as a result.

    Some areas have seen 2-3cm, some areas have seen a little more, some areas have seen very little or nothing, that's just how these things go.

    You explained it better than me Dan - Thanks


  5. Wasnt meant to be patronising but if you are studying Meteorology am guessing at UEA then surely you could see the Low Pressure was losing intensity (Dan calls it Upper Forcing) then you could see that the Northern Extent of the Precip was struggling and with no heavy precip at 36f dewpoints it simply wasnt going to fall as snow, as the precip shield has waxed and waned away moving out towards the east when the favourable conditions (EG Dp's around freezing were there) the precip wasnt strong enough for the Norfolk area.

    I always like to go through the event after it has happened to try and see why things happened and why things never happened and wrote a paper on the infamous 2009 Snow Event that many Met Students have asked to do studies on (That event was triggered by an Inversion around the Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex Coasts) that stopped the Snow from reaching the ground other than polystyrene balls with cloud tops at 37,000ft and Uppers of -14. The same Convective storms moved from the ENE to WSW and gave over a foot of snow to London.

    Its all a learning process, was not meant to be patronising in any way


  6. 2 minutes ago, Nqp15hhu said:

    But then tonight wasn't supposed to be marginal in the East, but in the end the west got the snowfall. 

    Erm

    Yes it was 100% Marginal, what forecasts have you been watching for the last few days ??

    If you want to see the Video I shared from Dan yesterday it pretty much went as he said it would, a period of rain with dewpoints not condusive to snow, lowering as the undercutting cold air spread from the NW turning the rain to snow. You were just unlucky to be under the part of the precip that shrank in size and intensity meaning the evaporative cooling process did not affect your part of Norfolk. It might be a good idea to learn the mechanics and processes of weather dynamics before making statements like that


  7. Just now, Sarah Anne said:

    Sorry im ashford ... will update.

    Its just ive been waiting but your post suggessted it was all gone everywhere . So was thinking i may as well switch radar off if youre saying that with your experience x

    Thanks for putting in your location, just to confirm was not talking about the radar earlier sorry for the confusion Sarah. Crossed wires I think

    Thursday looks a lot better for all the region as much less marginal unless you are within 5-10 miles of the Coast. And it should be more solidly 2-5cm across the board.


  8. 1 minute ago, Sarah Anne said:

    Over for all se or just for your neck of woods. 

    Was just finding it interessting that when the Cold Undercut occured there was a narrow strip of Dewpoints that stayed around 1-2c from Mid Kent through SE Essex and up into Suffolk and Norfolk probably brought about by the SE Onshore flow which kept it as rain longer in those areas. The map that was shon earlier shoed it brilliantly - Dont know where your neck of the woods is as you dont have a location on your profile

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