Paul Sherman

Its a start! Woohoo

There you go, that shows that perfectly, the wedge of warmer dps and the reason that slice is rain

I think until the event is over and we look at what has caused this wedge of land to not see anything but heavy rain versus snow we just cant say. Could be a number of things, onshore flow, rate of precip, dont know at this stage

Really is interesting the areas North of the Estuary with that wedge of warmer dewpoints and solid rain, the colder undercutting has no doubt gone through with the reports of snow now South of the Thames further East into Kent. Here is hoping Thursday's does not suffer the same fate North of the warmer Estuary. Am surprised about Chelmsford still having rain though as thats fully 14 miles NW of the Estuary

Yh this was my worry being so close to the Estuary with a SE Wind blowing - Not looking good for us

Dan, Mate dont waste your breathe, will message you on Facebook later

Its precipitating in Leigh On Sea How about that

Agree with this Rambo Some shockingly childish behaviour in here tonight, its the same when a bolt of lightning does not land in someones garden in the Summer when people have a go at a forecast. I would probably urge the people that do have a go in here to just not bother and just leave people to post up forecasts from the Beeb or their Iphones in future, then they can stand in front of a mirror and have a go at their phones instead of venting on here. Truly Pathetic!

Must admit am surprised at all these rain reports I mean its not as if this was expected was it

And as I said that ECM rolls out and gives us a pasting on Thursday with it much further south and nothing marginal at all about Thursday

Btw I have always been on the opinion that 99% of places will get a slushfest from this which will ice over in the morning, some of the hills like the South Downs etc could get 3-5cm but thats literally the 1% The other video grab posted above is GOOD for our region as the Beeb are downplaying Thursday, which can only mean 1 thing. UPGRADES!

Wasnt privvy to that Forecast nor would I watch the drivel they spill out, but Dans Video laid it out pretty well and its pretty much going to plan from what he said.

And thats what it was showing

Guessing nobody even bothered watching the Video posted yesterday then. I did say that between 4-7pm this thread would be dominated with people gfuqhgfpjhing about rain when thats what was exactly what was expected to happen before the undercut came in Guessing that was the best forecast of the week

Thanks buddy, thats the sort of report which is vital to areas further east. Enjoy that settling snow, should get a top up on Thursday as well. And the growing signs of High Pressure to our North East on the models gathers pace for the 2nd week of February as well.

Dewpoints are nowhere near good enough across the entire South East ranging from 2-3c.................But there are quite a few 0c and 1c Dp's to our North West over the Midlands and its this undercutting cold we need to head from the NW into our region as the precip moves through bringing that evaporative cooling into play. It will be interesting to see how quickly it undercuts this evening

Haha Crown Hill around 9pm on Thursday could be an evacuation route downhill only, certainly the 5 bus routes wont attempt to get up it if the ICON is correct for Thursday. Yh I seem to remember the North part of Essex wanted to be with the East Anglians and the Southern Parts of Essex wanted to be with London and the Home Counties, then we had the problem of where Cambs, Beds and Bucks was put. Cant please everyone

But hopefully it shows people just how hard it is to predict wether its going to be Snow/Rain/Sleet/Pellets etc on an Atlantic Front. The good thing it shows is the Milder air around late afternoon which should hopefully stop all the crying posts saying "But its 5c It;s never gunna snow" And also shows the Colder Uppers undercutting into the front turning the rain to snow. I just wanted to hilghlight the fact to people on how things could/should play out I never said it was exciting.

Guys I want to get in early and try to stop the doom and gloom posts that are going to happen around 4-7pm tomorrow in this Regional Thread. Why are these posts going to happen I hear you say ?? Well simple, it will RAIN first before the precip turns to snow. You might see, WHAT A BUST, You might see, WHAT A PATHETIC COLD SPELL, You might see, WE ONLY GET SNOW FROM EASTERLIES Please Please Please watch the Video Dan has posted up, and please watch all nearly 7 minutes of it, you might learn something, you might already know what he is describing, but more importantly it lays out what is expected to happen and why some places have people swinging from the Chandeleers with Heavy snow whilst others have a wintry mix Thanks to Dan (Staplehurst) for putting this Video together

By all means put it too the Mods but please not 10 pages of debate on it.

Ah the same question we have had for the past 15 years. We tried a 3 counties and a Norfplk/Suffolk Group before but then those regionals went dead and everyone went back in with the SE & East Anglia around 9 years ago so there you have it. If you want to frequent the East Midlands, Lincs threads then by all means be my guest

Still of the same opinion from when I last posted on Friday about this not being a normal system moving into entrenched cold air. Drizzle and rain Tuesday should turn from 10pm onwards to give some snow, not expecting more than 1-3cm and locally 5cm in favoured spots with Altitude. Most of this will compact down for wednesday, expecting a cold night under no winds on wednesday night and could squeak a -4c overnight, then Thursday's system looks to be a sleety,snowy,rainy mess. Not even looked at the weekend yet. Hope I am wrong with the above but cant foresee too many problems, happy to be corrected though

Haha I bet Guy Fawkes is blowing that Low Pressure South, him and Darren Bent absolutely hate any idea of snow and cold in the Uk

Agree with all the responses ref Precip Strength etc from Steve, Snowking and MWB Lets hope luck is on our side and lets see if the Pub Run carries on with the track

The thing that worries me about this system was touched upon a few pages back and thats onshore flow as the LP Advances from west to east or whatever track it takes. Usually in Channel Low Set-Ups of the Past and the real ones of ficton like Man With Beard just said about we have entrenched cold over the Uk and a huge Scandi Block to the East, the Dp's are cold enough on the Continent to advect into the Uk from France and the Low Countries to keep it less than marginal. This Set-Up worries me in that respect hugely, as others have said with elevation across the Downs, Chilterns, Salisbury Plain etc it should not be a problem but I can see this being a rain to snow/slush event for low lying areas.