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Paul Sherman

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Posts posted by Paul Sherman


  1. Its a tough one thats for sure, quite a few caveats on this one none moreso than convection that looks like firing tonight around Midnight in the Concho Valley will have an impact on this set-up a full 18 hours before the event is unfolding. This convection coupled with precip further north spreading should link up near the Dallas area mid morning and march East North Eastwards. The Open warm sector will be uncapped which is a problem in itself with a lifting warm front. If too much convection fires and messy HP Structures all end up competing then it could dampen the tornado threat, but if temps climb to around 75 and enough solar heating can occur then we could be looking at some scary soundings tomorrow in Western Louisiana.

    Now onto the chase terrain, in a word its TERRIBLE

    Tall tress line I20 and I30 in East Texas into Louisiana, forest give way to swamps with little road options, fast moving SSW-NNE Tornadic Storms on mostly east to west roads is not easy and it might be a case of hoping your tornado gets it done whilst you have a decent view, not so much chasing really

    A better risk area might be late afternoon into evening much further east over the Mississippi Delta with much better chase terrain but fading light from the storms moving in from the rest might make this a nocturnal chase.

    Nightmare day coming up for the Arklatex tomorrow


  2. Yh

    Plenty of Eateries around the Hotels Complexes, including Ruby Tuesday which isnt usually that bad, there is a nice Restaurant attached to one of the hotels and also one of those Diner Places as well.

     


  3. Big old Messy MCS with embedded spin ups and mainly a wind risk in the enhanced area.

    We tend to stay away from that load of crap, so today like most chasers would focus on the 66/1 outsider and the triple point in Western Oklahoma for example

    Wednesdays storm system has some big issues, Capping to the south and where the severe is expected in the Central High Plains, moisture return will not be quality and by the time it rattles through snow will be the big namemaker on the back edge as it clears from west to east.

    One or two more cold frontal passages to come this spring before we heat up proper I think


  4. Not more I can add onto what Neil has written above. All Tours have their own merits and all tours have done better than others in the last 15 years.

    If you want the Southern Plains and more chance of Violent Tornado Outbreaks then the early tours would be your cup of tea

    If you want something in between maybe Southern Plains 1 day then High Plains of Colorado the next then the Middle Tours

    If you want a much slower pace of life the latter tours take in the Northern Plains and stunning scenery, harder road options but some incredibly structured Storms.

    Its all down to you Tim (Froze)

    As Neil says if there are storms we will be there and you will have a blast


  5. Hi Camilla

    Dont quote me on this but I seem to remember March 1st as a date in my head, so maybe an email will be coming in a few weeks

     

    Will send an email to Paul M to find out for you

    Not long now

     

     


  6. WeatherHolidays will be giving away a Free Space on the 2020 Tours on the Tour of your Choice which has a Value of £1,750 and this is Open to all Guests Booked on our Tornado Alley Trips, Photography, Canada and Arizona in 2019 and also those who are already booked for the 2020 Trip and have booked as of April 30th 2019. How do you win this Trip ??

    Weather Holidays have seen 198 Tornadoes up to the end of the 2018 Season and we would love you to guess what US State the 200th will Occur in. If we have multiple correct guesses a live draw will take place in Early July to determine the winner of this prize.

    To give you a little help, or to make this a bit more difficult, the first Tornadoes in the last 5 Seasons have occured in Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado, BUT its the 2nd Tornado of the 2019 Season that Counts.

    Please Email your Guess and send it to [email protected] no later than the 30th April 2019. Only participants of the 2019 and 2020 Tours can take part and its only 1 guess per person and the first guess will stand so think carefully.

    The people who guess correctly will then be entered into a draw to see who wins the prize - we'll announce the winner within 14 days of our 200th tornado. 

    Good Luck to everyone taking part!


  7. Hi Guys

    I saw all the other Tours had a Thread and thought Tour 1 looked a little left out so here is YOUR Thread 😃

    In under 3 months time we will be well into Tour 1 and hopefully some Southern Plains action and some text book Set-Ups. Who is out on Tour 1 this year and if you have any questions please ask away.

    Myself, your drivers Jock, Richard and Martin will be arriving on the 2nd May to Set-Up everything up and test the equipment. The official arrival day is May 4th and the first official chase day is Sunday 5th May.

    Cant wait to meet you all with the brand spanking shiny new Beast Cars and set off on this years adventure

    Regards

    Paul

     


  8. Hi Guys

    Please look out for an announcement on here, on all Social Media Platforms and if you are on none of those we will Email you with the announcement so everybody can take part........Is that a Clue Hmmmm

    This announcement will affect everybody who is booked on the 2019 Tours and also the people who have booked the 2020 Tours and who have paid a Deposit by 30th April 2019.

    I think you will ALL love this announcement so only 6 days to wait

    Regards

    Paul

     


  9. Hey Tom

    When you speak to Ian Currie can you ask him his thoughts on a possible Scandi High for the 2nd half of February.

    I am favouring it to come in around the 15th of this month after 2 weeks of Mobility and an active Jet Stream coming out of the US Eastern Seaboard.

    Not seeing why there are so many  winter is over posts in the Model Discussion, am certainly not giving up on winter yet.

    Would like to know his thoughts if you get a chance to ask him


  10. Summising this spell for SE Essex and the Winter so Far

    Coverings Dec 1st to Feb 1st is Zero

    Falling Snow at a rate of over 5/10 is Zero

    Sleet Days is 3

    An awful awful winter down here and no chance of low temps tonight as we only have grass cover and not Ice.

    I will say though that I did see decent snow in Billericay around 10 days ago, although its 15 miles away it is far away enough from the English Riviera Thames Estuary and its Tepid Bath

    Roll on Spring I say!


  11. One of the strangest events I have ever known

    You have driving rain at 60masl in a place that usually does well when the Dewpoint is Negative and a Northerly Offshore Flow

    You have Rochester which is pretty much due south and lower in elevation with 4cm

    Biggin Hill with next to nothing, but Detling and Bluebell Hill Impassable

    12 miles from here you have Langdon Hills resembling a Ski Resort

    Some very strange features in the Mid and Upper Levels going on here


  12. 1 minute ago, Thunderstruck said:

    Not a happy bunny.

    Heavy snow causing disruption over in Kent, while here, less than 20 miles away on the other side of the Thames, just boring sleet as it has been pretty much all day. 

    Yh the Snow lasted all of 5 minutes before it turned back into driving rain again

    Dont have to go far for a snow fix though if you can drive.

    Will be headed over the river for a snow fix tomorrow


  13. Kold

    I enjoyed February 2005, snow amounts were a bit Meh..........................But there was actually snow falling somewhere in the SE on 23 of the 28 days.

    February 1st-2ND 2009 I certainly did not Enjoy.

    There was another February event cant remember the year when a reverse streamer Set-Up, this is the ESE Thames Snow Streamer that hits Maidstone, Gravesend, then crosses into NE London and hits NW London and Herts really bad.

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