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Paul Sherman

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    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

    Wind is starting to acquire a bit of a cold bite and sky is taking on a bit of an orange tint, even though it is no where near cold enough for snow.

    People with weather stations, please keep the observations coming - especially those in the north of the region as transition is not that far away now!

    Pretty Boring here atm expecting the crashing soon hopefully

    13z 8.2c

    14z 7.5c

    15z 6.4

    16z 6.3c

    17z 6.2c

    18z 6.3

    19z 6.1

    Pretty Meh

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Blessed Weather said:

    And to add to the Sunday chart from Weatherquest that I posted earlier, here's their take on Monday for East Anglia which shows the snow showers penetrating further west. Quote:

    Beyond Sunday, snow showers will continue to feed well-inland from the North Sea throughout Monday, banding together at times - so 'fresh' accumulations will vary considerably over short distances. Significant snowdrifts are likely in strong northeasterly winds.

    623974053_EASnowDepthfcast06FebMonWQuest.thumb.jpg.2c4d46968b9b12852d8919df165952e7.jpg

    Source: Twitter @danholley_

    That looks like Dan expects more of a NNE element to the wind and not ENE if the map went onto include Kent it would be the Mid Kent Streamer, places like Brighton and the South Coast would do very well from that as well

    • Like 4

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just now, lawrenk said:

    Only the BBC I know but didn’t look to be any great risk of anything marginal and no mention of the dreaded “rain on coasts”!

    Never going to get marginality with a true Scandinavia and Russian sourced Easterly. Watch those Dewpoints over the next 7 days they will be so continental and dry i doubt they will rise above 0c again until maybe next weekend and even then if the Scandi High strengthens as models are showing I would bet it might be even longer.

    Just dont touch any light switches or you might get a spark lol

    • Like 5

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Weather_Novice said:

    Well, Rayleigh is in the Amber warning area but Chelmsford (where I work) is forecast to have a relatively dry spell tomorrow and Monday.

    Just wonder what member's thoughts are?  Thanks 

    Take no notice of that 

    The Yellow Warning also mentions the chance of snow amounts upto 15cm so the snow wont just stop from Chelmsford to Rayleigh (10 miles up the A130) so Chelmsford has just a good a chance as Rayleigh from the first bout

    Streamer Wise Rayleigh favoured over Chelmsford due to that small amount of Miles further south

    • Like 3
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    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Ian Docwra said:

    Yes, but that's not dependent on the heaviness of the snow - the wind chill will be there even if bone dry.  People seem to be expecting/hoping for heavier snow to lead to a red warning in itself.

    I suppose it depends on what you yourself percieve as warranting a Red Warning. If you think its ok to drive in total whiteout conditions with zero visibility and 40mph blizzard and not put a Red Warning out then you may have some super Lewis Hamilton driving skills, but most of the public in the SE of England will not have the skills to drive in those conditions and hence they warn for the danger to life.

    Having driven in a Haboob south of Phoenix a few times I can tell you your heart skips a beat when the Visibility goes down to the edge of your bonnet whilst doing 60mph.

    Lets just see what happens later before dismissing the notions of red warnings being dished out namby pamby

    • Like 7

    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    A lot of the Impact is dependent on 2 crucial things though hence the holding from Meto

    1. How Heavy will the initial Precip Band be as it approaches from the East and how far west will it spread

    2. How will the wind vectors allign  when the Low Pressure pulls away and will it be favourable for streamers which will have even more impact than the frontal band

    I would not make that call until the event is started if it was me 

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    South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    I dont think some realise just how close we are now to a Red Alert, just 1 tick away on the Matrix now

    Red Alerts tend to be Issued as the event is happening or things are so firmed up just before the event is started.

    Some Instances of this over the years were the very first ever one in South Devon when it was apparant things were much worse than expected and loss of life was possible, or a few hours before the event like the Snow event in 2009.

    I know its a Sunday and Lockdown but if Blizzard conditions are accompanying snow there really will not be any visibility on the roads and hence a danger to life if travelling.

    Yellow Warnings now extended to Wednesday as well.

    I know some will mock this post as over exagerating but we are very close to the top upgrade now, there is a big difference to 50cm of Snow on a Scottish Mountain and Blizzards in heavily populated areas with lots of road traffic. Hence why its hard to get a Red Alert on Scottish Mountains

     

    • Like 15
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