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Paul Sherman

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Everything posted by Paul Sherman

  1. Have sent friend Requests to Camilla, Andrew and Vicky and as soon as they are approved will add you into the Tour 3 Facebook Chat Thread Not long now Guys
  2. 12Z GFS Run is an absolute wet dream of a run for Tour 2 If it plays out like it is showing then there will be multiple Severe Events over the Plains starting around the 17th to the 27th May This really could be another 2016 setting up here See you next week Guys
  3. Starting today in Childress and targeting the Northern Panhandles and SW Kansas. Tomorrow to Thursday will be much bigger days
  4. The Drone footage is real, shot by Brandon Copic and already he is earning in the 10's of thousands of pounds for the footage. Luckily for him the Sulpher Tornado from earlier was pretty weak and he was able to fly that drone very close to the tornado. Incredible Footage
  5. Biggest risk of the week coming up today. Surface analysis shows a cold front out west currently and an SW-NE Oriented stationery Boundary across Central Oklahoma with a Warm Front extending NE From the Front through C Missouri into Southern Illinois this is as at 9am (Uk Time) Surface dewpoints south of the front are around 70f at the moment with warm south easterly winds, if the front reinforces and moves further North and West I can see an upgrade to Moderate Risk on the 13z or 16z Updates with an attendant 10% Hatched Risk for Tornadoes. If the cold front wins out and the front sags further east then the risk will transfer into the jungles of Eastern Oklahoma. The Warm Front also looks very nice and can see some Tornadoes in far NE Missouri and Southern Illinois today along the Warm Front. There is also a seperate play in the Low Rolling Plains of discrete Dryline Supercells but these are far removed from Upper Support and should rapidly weaken with loss of Daylight. HRRR paints a daunting picture for later with 2 bands of Discrete and Semi Discrete Supercells whereas NAM shows a more linear messy mode of embedded Supercells and more of a wind damage risk on broken S Bands and small bow echoes. I know we are there from this weekend but if the tours were on Day 1 then we would be having a very early lunch in Ardmore around 12 Noon Paul S
  6. Getting into the semi reliable for the start of Tour 1 now being only 6 days away. Looks like there could be some overnight storms on Saturday and Sunday but the first chances of proper chasing look to be Monday 6th May Thereafter am seeing a very favourable pattern for chasing numerous days on Tour 1 with plentiful moisture and decent upper support at 500mb with SW Flow at times, chase areas still up in the air but will become easier to nail down as we get to next weekend. All in all very happy with the outlook for an active May Paul S
  7. As it stands as of Saturday 12z GFS run it looks like a Bonus Chase Day in the offing on Saturday and also quite a nice chase day on the Sunday as well in Kansas/Oklahoma. Will put up some charts in a little bit, most of the Hodos are showing Tornado though - woohoo
  8. Hi Melvyn, should be ok to send a car over to Car Rentals as we will be working on the cars most of Friday and usually have cars 2 and 3 done by late morning.
  9. Haha Yes just realised there is no Tour 5 starting topic so thanks for starting it Linda. This is the Photography Tour which runs from June 19th to June 30th See you all out there
  10. Spiders the size of Pin Heads can kill over there - Grrrrr
  11. Brilliant cheers mate this will help lots of people out newbies and veterans alike
  12. Its a tough one thats for sure, quite a few caveats on this one none moreso than convection that looks like firing tonight around Midnight in the Concho Valley will have an impact on this set-up a full 18 hours before the event is unfolding. This convection coupled with precip further north spreading should link up near the Dallas area mid morning and march East North Eastwards. The Open warm sector will be uncapped which is a problem in itself with a lifting warm front. If too much convection fires and messy HP Structures all end up competing then it could dampen the tornado threat, but if temps climb to around 75 and enough solar heating can occur then we could be looking at some scary soundings tomorrow in Western Louisiana. Now onto the chase terrain, in a word its TERRIBLE Tall tress line I20 and I30 in East Texas into Louisiana, forest give way to swamps with little road options, fast moving SSW-NNE Tornadic Storms on mostly east to west roads is not easy and it might be a case of hoping your tornado gets it done whilst you have a decent view, not so much chasing really A better risk area might be late afternoon into evening much further east over the Mississippi Delta with much better chase terrain but fading light from the storms moving in from the rest might make this a nocturnal chase. Nightmare day coming up for the Arklatex tomorrow
  13. Not released the dates for 2020 yet Stuart but will get this done soon Mike are you on this years Arizona Trip ?
  14. Yh Plenty of Eateries around the Hotels Complexes, including Ruby Tuesday which isnt usually that bad, there is a nice Restaurant attached to one of the hotels and also one of those Diner Places as well.
  15. Big old Messy MCS with embedded spin ups and mainly a wind risk in the enhanced area. We tend to stay away from that load of crap, so today like most chasers would focus on the 66/1 outsider and the triple point in Western Oklahoma for example Wednesdays storm system has some big issues, Capping to the south and where the severe is expected in the Central High Plains, moisture return will not be quality and by the time it rattles through snow will be the big namemaker on the back edge as it clears from west to east. One or two more cold frontal passages to come this spring before we heat up proper I think
  16. Availability at the link below Tim https://www.weatherholidays.com/stormchase-usa/book.html
  17. Not more I can add onto what Neil has written above. All Tours have their own merits and all tours have done better than others in the last 15 years. If you want the Southern Plains and more chance of Violent Tornado Outbreaks then the early tours would be your cup of tea If you want something in between maybe Southern Plains 1 day then High Plains of Colorado the next then the Middle Tours If you want a much slower pace of life the latter tours take in the Northern Plains and stunning scenery, harder road options but some incredibly structured Storms. Its all down to you Tim (Froze) As Neil says if there are storms we will be there and you will have a blast
  18. Hi Camilla Dont quote me on this but I seem to remember March 1st as a date in my head, so maybe an email will be coming in a few weeks Will send an email to Paul M to find out for you Not long now
  19. WeatherHolidays will be giving away a Free Space on the 2020 Tours on the Tour of your Choice which has a Value of £1,750 and this is Open to all Guests Booked on our Tornado Alley Trips, Photography, Canada and Arizona in 2019 and also those who are already booked for the 2020 Trip and have booked as of April 30th 2019. How do you win this Trip ?? Weather Holidays have seen 198 Tornadoes up to the end of the 2018 Season and we would love you to guess what US State the 200th will Occur in. If we have multiple correct guesses a live draw will take place in Early July to determine the winner of this prize. To give you a little help, or to make this a bit more difficult, the first Tornadoes in the last 5 Seasons have occured in Kansas, Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado, BUT its the 2nd Tornado of the 2019 Season that Counts. Please Email your Guess and send it to [email protected] no later than the 30th April 2019. Only participants of the 2019 and 2020 Tours can take part and its only 1 guess per person and the first guess will stand so think carefully. The people who guess correctly will then be entered into a draw to see who wins the prize - we'll announce the winner within 14 days of our 200th tornado. Good Luck to everyone taking part!
  20. Hi Guys I saw all the other Tours had a Thread and thought Tour 1 looked a little left out so here is YOUR Thread In under 3 months time we will be well into Tour 1 and hopefully some Southern Plains action and some text book Set-Ups. Who is out on Tour 1 this year and if you have any questions please ask away. Myself, your drivers Jock, Richard and Martin will be arriving on the 2nd May to Set-Up everything up and test the equipment. The official arrival day is May 4th and the first official chase day is Sunday 5th May. Cant wait to meet you all with the brand spanking shiny new Beast Cars and set off on this years adventure Regards Paul
  21. Hi Guys Please look out for an announcement on here, on all Social Media Platforms and if you are on none of those we will Email you with the announcement so everybody can take part........Is that a Clue Hmmmm This announcement will affect everybody who is booked on the 2019 Tours and also the people who have booked the 2020 Tours and who have paid a Deposit by 30th April 2019. I think you will ALL love this announcement so only 6 days to wait Regards Paul
  22. Hi Everyone, Cant wait for the Chasing to begin, see you all in Denver - Not long now
  23. Cheers Coops Yh will get up early and get some Pics over this side Pub lunch is still on though
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