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Everything posted by Bruegelian

  1. RE low solar activity, it's maybe a touch early for that, I think we have not been in solar minimum for that long, and the coldest winters happen just after solar minimum and as we are beginning the next cycle.
  2. Nice to see the PV over Scandanavia in that final frame, though would be nice to have high pressure building over NE Canada as well.
  3. On second thoughts I would say, that is a more accurate assessment. ?
  4. Shades of December 2012 with the polar maritime potential, let's hope it comes off.
  5. But isn't the thing that this is GFSv2 (FV3 last year) , so is yet to prove it's mettle? We'll see I guess.
  6. Catacol said something interesting the other day, that it will be fascinating to see if this winter goes down the path of the LRFs , or something else entirely......
  7. Seriously, has GLOSEA updated for this month? The latest month still seems to be October for me.
  8. The thing about saying 'our winters have changed', is I think the human mind is naturally drawn towards those kind of flip of a switch, crossing the rubicon , black & white decisive changes. problem is, I think the reality is much more complex & messy.
  9. I suppose I meant propensity for colder than average winters in N.America, since about 2013. Not all the time, in every winter, since then, of course, but there has seemed to be a general propensity for the pacific jet to plunge deep into US bringing cold weather in winters of last 5 years.
  10. Gosh am I the only one pulling my hair out about north america getting all the cold winter after winter - surely it can't go on for ever. Is it simply being caused by deep troughs forming there?
  11. Surely next winter will be better with solar minimum & E-QBO.
  12. In my experience these 'bleak' periods of model watching usually don't last that long before a new rainbow to chase is sighted on the horizon.
  13. It is strange how the predicted HLB has failed to materialise. Even more so when you consider the ease at which it did so in 2009--2010. Bit of an enigma really this weather lark.
  14. Yep first beast last March was very dry & powderey, almost like sand. But second beast the snow had a lot more moisture, and was very fluffy like tonight. Difficult to describe what I am getting at. Fluffy is what it is, the lying snow lacks density & and is easily shifted say when walking through it. Anyway, just a minor point.
  15. Hi all, I think over 10cm here, maybe getting on for 15cm. One interesting thing about this particular snowfall is the snow is very light & fluffy, i remember the snowfall in mid-March cold spell last year (2nd beast from east), was similar. Not sure what causes this type of very fluffy snow.
  16. Maybe on day 10 ECM signs of Canada PV shifting and heights rising towards newfoundland, but maybe that's too optimistic. BTW when is the EC46 coming out?
  17. Well, maybe just the hint, right at end of the 12z GFS, of high pressure moving up towards greenland and finally displacing the NE canada PV.
  18. Day 10 (+240) ECM chart: May I ask, since I'm not a total expert, how 'good' this is for us?
  19. Yes regarding medium range things looking good today, with the MetO update, JMA, CFS, all looking good. Let's hope the cold for this winter is like a lumbering giant, slow to arrive, but when it hits we'll know about it.
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