mb018538
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Posts posted by mb018538
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35 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:
Mind you with the wind direction the way it is, I suspect there will be much low cloud, plus drizzle on windward coasts - so when it comes to light levels, it'll arguably be absolute winter. Or perhaps like late October or early November minus the leaves. Probably exceedingly humid also.
For me (and I am someone who is looking forward to lighter days and dislikes the overly-early sunsets of winter) those charts couldn't be worse. I'd honestly prefer a named storm and a low right over the UK if only there might be a N-ly in its wake!
Scotland looks OK though, in much clearer and brighter Pm air by the looks of things.
Probably more of a selfish thing for me - over here in the east we get sheltered from the worst effects of westerly/SW airstreams, most of the ppn tends to get dropped out to the W/NW, and we can miss the cloud altogether. The chart below shows 16c and sunny despite the westerly flow. That'd feel dreamy to me.
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Nice to see a summer thread appearing....winter officially only has 5 weeks left before we can wave goodbye for another 8 months or so.
Can't wait until the light properly returns and all of the flowers and trees start to bloom with the birds singing away on a sunny spring morning. Better than everything looking desolate and dead as it always does in the middle of winter.
What will Summer 2024 hold? As long as we get a few decent weeks out of the season then we're ok. I'm not expecting another 2018 job. 2023 was odd with a nice June, bad July and August, then the scorching September.-
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As someone who hates winter, seeing charts like this appearing again is bliss. 15c, yes please! Thank god we will soon be done with it for another half a year.-
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Looking very trough dominated again as we head into December....wind and rain could be making a comeback fairly soon. Enjoy the quieter weather while it lasts. It's certainly felt more like winter the past few days with some hard frosts and cold days!-
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3 weeks to go fellow darkness haters!
7-8 weeks before we really start to notice some difference. Not long. It'll soon fly by, as most of autumn has.-
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Why are people in the middle of the country surprised there isn't strong wind? It was never going to be really windy here. Gusts of 10-20mph this morning, relatively calm.
The strong winds are all on the southern flank of the low, as was always the case. As it moves north through today, winds will pick up to 40-50mph across central areas, but you aren't going to see anything too untoward.
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1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:
I don't think anyone is tbh,
There were loads of people in summer swooning about how great autumn is.
Well to me, when I think of autumn, this is exactly the sort of weather that I associate with it. Wet, windy, miserable. You can get the nice calm and mellow days, but they are sadly vastly outweighed by this absolute tosh we have to contend with.-
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Absolutely dreadful weather recently. Sick of the constant rain. How anyone can be enjoying this is beyond me.
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Just now, danm said:
Beautiful out there, the sky today is a really clear blue. 24c, a few 25c's now showing up in Essex and Kent.
Yes - Cavendish has been above 25c for 3/4 days in a row now. Certainly be a shock by the end of the weekend when we are down to 12c!
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Absolute stunner again today, 24c and sun. Probably the last properly warm day now for 5-6 months. I've enjoyed September and the first half of October a lot.
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Up to 24c now, which is about where we will max out for the day. 24c also showing at Charlwood, Cavendish and Southend.
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Cracking here too. 21c and sunny. Beautiful day.
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40 minutes ago, RJBingham said:
Well, it's a long way off, so really just for fun, but you never know...
You clearly like the warmer stuff like myself...we may squeeze one more very warm day out in our neck of the woods on Friday.
Beyond that - the first widespread cold nights of the season could be with us in a week. Temps around freezing or just above in most areas by next Sunday night on the ECM.
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Yesterday was incredible. 24c and sunny, out in shorts at the pumpkin patch. A couple more nice days before autumn really kicks in - 6 weeks after it officially started.
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1 hour ago, MattStoke said:
546dm thickness well to the north of Scotland.
564dm line (Tropical air thickness) still across Southern England.
Also, that front looks like it's occluding rather than a straight forward cold front.Was just going to say the same....you do realise that is the 564 dam line straddling the country in the second week of October?!
Those auto generated temps are always a bit off anyway. The UKV run has 24-25c in the SE Monday, ARPEGE 26c. 22c may be a bit low.
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41 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
There isn’t a single model showing this warm spell ‘teetering on the edge’ this weekend. All have extended into next week. What an odd comment.
The only real wobble this morning is the GFS, which shows only 18/19c on Sunday.....which is at odds with other output. UKV for example has 24c on Sunday, and up to 25/26c on Monday. As you say though, it does keep temps into the 20s right out until Wednesday.
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16 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
A question: whyare upper temperatures of 20C only translating to 26C / 27C? I know it's October, but you'd expect a bit more than that. Even in Paris, it's only showing 27C.
29.9c was achieved under this set up on October 1st 2011 at Gravesend.
If you look at the forecast for Saturday, you'd think that with a much warmer airmass we'd be seeing similar temperatures. Airmass just probably isn't dry enough this time around with more of a SW component. Makes all the difference with lapse rates etc. Humidity is still above 50% in most of the SE.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99056-model-output-discussion-mid-summer-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=4931544 -
16 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
A question: whyare upper temperatures of 20C only translating to 26C / 27C? I know it's October, but you'd expect a bit more than that. Even in Paris, it's only showing 27C.
29.9c was achieved under this set up on October 1st 2011 at Gravesend.
If you look at the forecast for Saturday, you'd think that with a much warmer airmass we'd be seeing similar temperatures. Airmass just probably isn't dry enough this time around with more of a SW component. Makes all the difference with lapse rates etc. Humidity is still above 50% in most of the SE.
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Just to illustrate how exceptional September was - in my neck of the woods it was the warmest on record, and warmer than June, July and August. Certainly felt it too.
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Just now, Ajsnowy said:Gfs from next Tuesday onwards looks great for a return to wet and windy weather.
Pathetic attempt of a heatwave trying to hold on for that week.
Pathetic attempt? Not sure that a close to record breaking heatwave could be described as a 'pathetic attempt', even if it's something that you clearly don't want...
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11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Even into Tuesday, we're still warm on this run.
Wow....if it drags on for 4-5 days then it'll be right up there with warmest October spells in history for sure.
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1 hour ago, knocker said:
The gfs forecast sounding for Saturday is a quite a good illustration of why surface temps, based on the 850mb temp, can be a tad tricky if the lapse rate in the boundary layer is modified by such as cloud, etc
Looks pretty clear to me on Saturday at least going by the GFS. The obvious limiting factor is the fact that it's October, not July, and not a straight southerly flow. 25/26c seems fair. Sunday on the GFS has more medium and high level cloud in places, but at this range purely speculation. -
Although Autumn can never really be Summer as we lose the long days.....this year really has tried its best to make up for the dreadful July and August. An exceptional September followed by a really good start to October. It'll end at some point, but at this point I'm just drinking it in. The prospect of 25c next weekend, wearing shorts and a BBQ or a trip to the coast fills me with joy.
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Some pretty incredible warmth showing up again on the 00z runs for next weekend. Temps of 25/26c on the cards:
The main reason? An exceptionally warm airmass. 850s of 17c-19c in the first week of October are incredibly rare. A couple of months ago we'd have been looking at mid 30s in the same setup:
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
It is yeah - in this particular instance it just appears to be a well defined frontal boundary with high pressure to the south keeping things mainly clear. As is always the case with weather, different every time...
