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Aqbadger

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    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

    It looks like I will have to eat humble pie - I said at the weekend this is not a 35C plus set-up, and yet we've hit 34C two days before the supposed peak, meaning 35/36C definitely seems realistic now.

    But all the same, many years ago 36C surely would have been unthinkable on this pattern? I always saw that as reserved for set-ups with a straight-line injection from Iberia which would itself need to be 42-45C? You could argue the dry hot summer has made higher temps more possible across the whole of Europe this year. I don't think that's the full explanation though. The heat parameters have simply changed. A simple heatwave in the UK is now likely to reach 34C rather than 32C. A significant heatwave gets to 36C rather than 34C. Rare heat means 37C or more rather than 35C. To even declare a heatwave means 30C these days, whereas ten years ago I would have argued 27C. It's just all changed.

    Back to the present, how many consecutive 30C plus will this spell bring us? Monday/Tuesday still seem fiddly but still potential 30C days, which would bring us to 9 consecutive days. Still too early to call Wednesday too, though chances of the heat holding that long surely slim.

    All really good points and yes MWB think it's safe to say the bar has been well and truly raised now. Where does it end....GFS I think its fair to say has done very well this year

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

    Hate to say it but I think today was a peak for thunderstorms in the south

    The following days are unlikely to have any significant severe element. Frustrating that the energy was supposedly used up by today’s storms. But today’s storms weren’t particularly severe, all elevated.

    Not really happy tbh. Where on Earth is our big event?

    All that discomfort has come to nothing

    Cherry on top is that there won’t be enough heat tomo to make the storms severe...

    ITS BEEN RIDICULOUSLY HOT ALL WEEK WHATYFHECK?!?!?

    Yesterday was one of the best storm days around Oxford to Swindon area for years. Setups like this always some who miss out unfortunately 

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