K9
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Posts posted by K9
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3 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:
We're definitely heading into twitchy toes time with the runs this afternoon, tonight and tomorrow. If we still have no clear pattern by tomorrow night I'd be concerned.
Mmmmm.....possibly, however, most folks are posting charts that are still 7 to 10 days out ( and ramping them up IMO...not there's anything wrong with that...i love a decent cold chart !! )....i'd give it a few more days before you allow your toes to twitch !!
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Is it just me or is all this talk of incoming cold ( or potential of) on the models just keep getting pushed further and further back without anything actually verifying??....love to see the models churning out decent cold charts and the discussions that go with them....but they still seem to be just outside of the reliable and constantly remain so ( with many respected NW members constantly posting charts that are between 5 to 10 days away that, as time has shown, very rarely if at all come to fruition) .even with a SSW thrown into the mix !....seems to be the story of this winter ( and many others over the past few years ! )....anyway..moan over..and back to the model outputs !!..enjoy your weekend folks...!!
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So the awaited SSW is underway ... having read numerous posts regarding this and gained some knowledge ,one question that maybe you could answer is as follows..' is this SSW different to any others that we have had over the years ( many of which failed to deliver) ..if so what is the overriding difference ?'..asking for a friend ...????...answers on a postcard....ta v muchly x
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49 minutes ago, ukpaul said:
A centimetre or two maybe for these parts on Tuesday, although EURO4 sees no lying snow, even in a lot of upland Pennine areas.
The curse of the internet and echo chambers, soon we’ll have two forums in one, one hyping things that end up not being delivered by 0h and the other saying ‘nothing to see’ and then being surprised when there is!
Fair point but I can assure that the Pennines has had snow cover for the past few days here in Gods own county of West Yorkshire so that sort of contradicts the whole post,unless of course you're referring to 'new snow cover'?..if so many apologies ..anyway ..back to the models !!!
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2 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:
100% this, and the downgrades have started already...
Surprised the downgrades took so long to show their face!!...why oh why do i let myself get sucked in !?...the charts were good to look at mind you !
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3 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:
GFS cold uppers not as deep as the 18z. A lot more 'milder' air around with mild sections.
2m temperatures in most places (except high ground) not that cold, definately not at freezing or below during the day.
??..comments..??..I would've thought that we might have had a day or so with temps at 0c with this set up given what charts have been popping up in the more 'reliable ' time frame ?
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1 hour ago, snow freak said:
although we have had 2 snow events this winter I would hardly call this winter a good one by any means to be honest here in Northampton. Even the 'good' snow event back in early December failed to stick around for more than 2 days and last weekends 'sunday' snowfall was gone by the end of the day, so I tally our lying snowfall to around 3 days so far this year. Yes, I suppose its better than the last 4 winters but no way am I happy with 3 day of lying snow and in no way would I call that a good winter.
2 half days( that's 2 half days not 2 AND a half !! ) of lying snow here IMBY in Gods own county of West Yorkshire, although some in the county at elevation have fared better TBH but not by much....this is another poor winter for me, the last decent snowfall was 2013( in March !! ) and the last for decent low temps was 2010....seems as the years progress the winters produce less and less...global warming??...just a natural cycle ...??...who knows?...ah well, as others have said on here, there's always next year!!!...i have opened the back door, rolled up the towel ..and thrown it in!!..i shall retrieve it 'next winter' when i shall resume my hopeful model watching..till then folks...enjoy the summer !! x
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Excellent viewing over on the model output page..been watching it evolve for the past few days..but suddenly seems to be taking a turn for the worst having read the last few posts/opinions on there...??...
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Well..missed out on the snow..again!!????..Yorkshire just not in the running this year..roll on summer!??
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Total non event here in Yorkshire..although as the runs progressed this week it was clear that we were going to miss out...ah well there's always next 'winter' as I've a feeling the cold may not return again!?
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55 minutes ago, igloo said:
after last weeks model runs of blizzards with drifting snow its back down to earth with a few wintry showers along western coasts and northern areas before we get high pressure shutting down any showers for the weekend many people will be disappointed but hi we should have known better by now
And so the disappointment begins.....
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I personally think this year we should ban any form of model output discussion beyond T120....saves the major disappointments of years gone by !!
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Latest CFS model brings the high pressure over southern & central UK next week stopping the cold returning and instead bringing milder weather across the whole of the UK & Ireland.
All a case of wait and see, although it's very likely the weather will turn less cold this weekend but we lose the sunshine and wintry showers and replace it with a lot of cloud and some patchy rain from weak weather fronts.
OR...
I think most posters on here know where our weather is heading from the middle of next week and that is into the freezer. It could be for quite some time as well.
should be an excellent afternoon and evenings model watching.
Make your minds up peeps....!! ....who is right...????....who knows !!!
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7 minutes ago, Rapodo said:
Is it just me or is there major over ramping going on? Don't see any decent snow events coming into view all just looks a dry slack E to SE breeze. Lovely if you like dry crisp days with the odd flake drifting by. You would think with some of the statements on the mod thread we were about to be buried in 5ft of snow which clearly were not.
It's not just you mate....its me aswell!!..yes it may become 'colder'...but nothing really to write home about..cold and grey..not exactly a coldies dream is it??..and as for snow...its a non-starter as far as I can see...plenty of interesting posts and model outputs yes...but anything to get excited about??...No..
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1 minute ago, John Hodgson said:
We're getting spoilt now that's why. I'm remaining optimistic, the models continue to show weather unlike anything in the past few years. Fascinating times ahead.
How are we getting spoilt??...the models have admittedly shown promise....and continue to do so....however ...anything worthy of note has failed to verify....and no doubt will always be 7 to 10 days 'away'....still, makes good viewing, albeit frustrating and disappointing!!...keep up the good work peeps ..lovin' this site !!!
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15 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:
Yep another crap wet day here again. Unfortunately that's the norm for our part of the world.
Sort of sums up the past few winters really!!....and also this winter..which yet again is a 'non-starter'...agreed we may have a couple of days of 'colder' weather coming up...but as Paul Hudson on BBC Look North weather just stated...this will be a 'very short lived affair'....so...enjoy our 3 day 'winter' folks...then back to the endless doom n gloom .....
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I love this site and I love cold weather,but having watched the outputs go from mainly good to terrible on so many occasions(well virtually every time to be honest)...I think I have finally given up hope of any form of cold that lasts more than 3 days...(and that's being positive) and confined the images of any decent past winters to my rapidly ageing memory banks...here's looking to next winter..enjoy folks!!..
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Hard frost last night.....sunny spells and mist/fog throughout the day...back down to -1.5 C now at 1600 hrs...
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It certainly is 'the thrill of the chase' fellow 'Wakey' person..!!!...but what gets me is that year after year the computers generate such teasing charts....and they all fall flat on their face 99 times out of a 100...so why even bother having charts generated for so far out!!....
...we should limit them to 7 days out at the very most !!-
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All good stuff...but so far out into fantasy land it's not even worth getting myself worked up about...and this is from a die hard 'Coldie'...!!!....why do we do this to ourselves !!!
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A few cm's here in a low (ish) lying area of God's own county, been snowing constantly since early morning...bit slushy mind you ..but hey..it's the white stuff!!....been a long while since I've seen a snowfall on the 9th November !!
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Proper warm in Gods own county today!!...unfortunately i was working so no access to the old weather station in the back garden but the sun on the back was really warm as i trotted out with the hounds at work this aft!!...still 11.5 deg though as I've landed back home at 1705 hrs...loving it !!,,,,
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Snow cover twice in a few days??...well I am being spoilt aren't I..no doubt it will turn to rain very soon but at the minute there's a few inch on the ground...and we aren't even in an elevated area!!
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On a plus side to all our disappointment this winter...it's been bucketing down with snow here for the past half an hour with flakes the size of £2 coins....i'm sure it won't last much longer....but it's nice to see whilst it lasts!!!...only second real fall of the winter here...speaks volumes really doesn't it!!!
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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Fair point...i just like to get to around +96 before i allow a smile to break out...seen far too many 'garden paths' since the olden days of the 'BBC Forum' where it all crashed and burned ( even at +48 TBH !! ) at the last minute....great model outputs though courtesy of the SSW...eyes down for a full house over the next few days !!