coldcomfort

Very concerning imo, looks like the train just wants to keep on coming.

As do I, but I also thought the thread was about expressing what the models show, rather than expressing personal preferences. Of course one can argue posting warm charts 2 weeks hence is valid, because they are available from GFS and therefore fit for 'model discussion', but if that is to be the case then all charts from that timeframe, whatever they show, should also be treated equally in my opinion.

Frosty posted charts for 2 weeks away above Karl83, but no one has questioned their validity, so are they OK because they show warm weather?

Cooler, wet weather set to return on the 25th though.

Very much so....as others have said on several occasions even maxima like those would feel OK out of the breeze and in the strong June sunshine, but under slate grey skies, in the breeze and worst still with rain falling it would feel like Nov....actually I put Oct at first, that was until I remembered recording 20.3c last Oct 31st!!!

Indeed CC, the min was -1.5c in Katesbridge NI last night, so these are indeed very impressive overnight low mins, especially in view of the fact it's only dark for 6 or 7 hours. Looking at the 10 day temp anom chart this morning I was expecting to see us back in positive territory, but no, yet again we are looking at means of 0-2c below average for what is now the 9th day in a row. http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html Yes the sunshine is smashing and I'd take it every day over wind and rain, but there is no getting away from the fact most of us haven't seen any genuine warmth so far this summer, let alone any heat...in fact it still feels chilly in the shade even during mid afternoon. A selection of last night's minima, courtesy of Weatheronline.... Stations: 200 Temp. Katesbridge (91 m) -2.0 °C Humberside (31 m) 0.0 °C Belfast Intl. Airport (68 m) 0.0 °C Aonach Mòr (1130 m) 1.0 °C Shap (249 m) 1.0 °C Bala (163 m) 1.0 °C Dalwhinnie (351 m) 2.0 °C Rostherne (35 m) 2.0 °C Castlederg (50 m) 2.0 °C Warcop Range (227 m) 2.0 °C RAF Dishforth (33 m) 3.0 °C Capel Curig (215 m) 3.0 °C Trawscoed (62 m) 3.0 °C Bealach na Bà (773 m) 3.0 °C Rochdale (110 m) 3.0 °C Machrihanish (10 m) 3.0 °C Glasgow Airport (8 m) 3.0 °C Strathallan (35 m) 3.0 °C Leeming (32 m) 3.0 °C Edinburgh Airport (41 m) 3.0 °C Magilligan (6 m) 3.0 °C Sutton Bonington (48 m) 3.0 °C Thorncliffe (298 m) 3.0 °C Great Dun Fell (847 m) 3.0 °C Thomastown (72 m) 3.0 °C Tulloch Bridge (236 m) 3.0 °C Shobdon (99 m) 3.0 °C Benson (57 m) 3.0 °C Linton-On-Ouse (14 m) 3.0 °C Santon Downham (6 m) 3.0 °C Church Lawford (106 m) 3.0 °C Pershore (31 m) 3.0 °C Bingley (267 m) 3.0 °C Islay/Port Ellen (17 m) 3.0 °C

For the 8th consecutive day the 10 day anomaly charts go for below average MEAN temperatures across the whole UK, but the 2nd half of the period does look set to be somewhat warmer than the first, probably as a result of less cold nights rather than any proper dating warmth though.

For the 7th day in a row the 10 day anom chart shows temps several degrees below normal across the whole UK. http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html The main difference from past runs however is these cooler conditions are now forecast to push ever farther southwards, with even parts of S France and Iberia losing their hitherto above or even well above average status. IF and I accept it is an IF the latest GFS run verifies then the early part of next week looks truly grim, with single digit maxima not remotely out of the question under any rain......and yep, snow does look possible on ground above about 1000m.

The 18 run closes the window still further....still the risk of one or two showers for Eng and Wales in particular Mon/Tue, (tho not widespread) then after dry day Weds more in the way of proper showery rain for Thurs. Couple this outlook with below average temps and you have to ask what all the 'good news' calls are about, because for my money the weather looks pretty pants for the first half of June and it wouldn't look particularly spectacular for the first half of April either truth be told.

1-4c below average as a mean according to those charts I posted, 2-3c below average according to those just posted by SS.

For the 6th day in a row these 10 day anom charts show mean temps across the UK (and indeed the northern half of Europe) to be several degrees below average. OK given the fact the next 5 or 6 days should be largely dry it will feel pleasant in the sunshine, but with more cloud and the likelihood of rain from Friday it's going to start feeling decidedly unpleasant imo - not really what we want to see at all as we close in on mid summers day. http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

It is indeed a real dogs breakfast atm, but at least folk can pick whichever run they want to believe and in so doing make a case for just about any senario post T+144hrs. I think the only safe call atm is next weeks high pressure and largely settled conditions will give way to lower pressure and generally more unsettled weather, but exactly how that change A....manifests itself and B... develops beyond next weekend remains about as clear as mud.

To my untrained eye the 'reliable timeframe' appears very much a moveable feast, in so much as it can be T+384hrs when it shows what many want to see and as short as T+48hrs when it doesn't. Both GFS and UKMO go for a more unsettled pattern in what I deem to be the RT this morning, just waiting to see now if ECM makes it a treble.

Well despite the presence of HP for close to a week the overall cool pattern looks set to continue, with the latest 10 day anom showing means of 1 to 4c below normal across the next 10 days from Jonny Scroats to Lands End. http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html Unless we see a significant warm up during the 2nd half of June, which doesn't look very likely at present, this could turn out to be a very cool month indeed. As is typical in this neck of the woods, we still manage to be anomolously cool when Moscow is in a heatwave or also anomolously cool...

I very certain another 62/63 will be along in another 47 years.....

Indeed, that is certainly the $64000 question for now. No getting away from it, the low res GFS paints a rather ugly picture after mid month (actually it's a butt ugly picture) with us trapped under a deep cold trough sandwiched between two strong anticyclones over both Scandi and the Azores....a setup that is very difficult to get out of once in. OK I'll say it.....doesn't look right to me...

Agree CS....on the face of it the fat high sat close by initially looks very pleasing to the eye for all of us, but it's position is critical to what we see weatherwise next week and imo there will be some large regional variation. Firstly those across Ireland and the far west of the mainland look set fair, with temps near normal generally, but favoured spots with hills to their east can expect some localised warmth. Central areas should fair pretty much OK, but cloud will come and go here and may be thick enough at times to give some rain or drizzle, especially as you suggested early next week. Eastern England currently looks to get the s****y end of this particular stick, especially the farther south you go, with probably more cloud than sun, some rain at times and temps a little below average.....even chilly at times on the coast.

It is course your choice to to believe or disbelieve, but imo this line from CC is absolutely right on the money.... We had pages of 'scientific' analysis last winter but they served up nothing in relation to what actually unfolded. That said i'm sure he is not trying to blame anyone, nor criticise them either, but sometimes all the expert analysis and copious amounts of big scientific words get trumped by someone going 'you know what, that doesn't look right' Moreover I think you will find there is no pre requisit to be or have been a meteorologist to post in here - some of the best posts are made by out and out amateurs/enthusiasts.

Ain't that a fact....excellent post CC. As in many walks of life 'experience' can and often does trump pure science, with the weather and particularly model watching being a classic case in point. How many times have we heard various members go 'just seen the latest ECM and it just doesn't look right' for instance?. No real point in being able to work out the chemical composition of Marmite if you can't get the lid off!

ECM is also clearly heading in the same direction towards the end of the run, so as you say why discount it or fail to recognise it....the possibility exists. As I said yesterday the retrogressive signal remains fairly constant, but the longer term GFS is already starting to point towards a less potent and shorter unsettled spell, with pressure building once again from the SW as we go into the 2nd half of the month.

It will be the coldness of the nights that drags the daily mean below average Andy. For the 4th day in a row the anom charts frank the below average temps across the next 10 days. http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Very much agree CC, there has never been solid background support for the kind of changes needed to deliver proper summer warmth, let alone heat, but saying it was never likely to increase personal popularity. There is no doubt that things are going to improve for a time next week, but I think the retrogressive signal will verify and as time goes the models will shorten the window of settled weather, perhaps to as few as 3 or 4 days in the end. Before mid month I'd expect heights to be well established over Greenland (ironically and annoyingly just what we want to see in Winter), with deep toughing over us, but that may not necessarily mean curtains for the 2nd half of the month too.

Very much so MS....the latest temp anoms for the next 10 days, coupled with the longer term troughing over or close to us puts any talk of a warm, summery June on pretty shaky ground this evening. Yes ECM does look rather more promising than GFS, but if I had to bet on which one will move towards the other across the next few runs it would be ECM to GFS.

Precious little sign of any genuine warmth on the 12 GFS, with the HP remaining centred out west and drawing N or NE winds down across much of the UK. Given the time of year of course with the sun pretty much at it's highest point it should feel pleasant out of the breeze, especially across the Southwest and Wales where it's been particularly cold and wet of late, but counties bordering the N Sea coast are likely the feel distinctly chilly at times next week - with cloud thickening sufficiently to produce some showery rain at times. Post 216hrs it doesn't really stretch the imagination to see the high regress into the Atlantic and open the door to a very cool northerly flow, with LP eventually setting up shop over the top of us once again towards mid month.

On the face of it things do look considerably better for all of us come the early part of next week, but it's still the early part of this week and as such nothing should be taken for granted. This time last week things looked like settling down and becoming very warm/hot for all of us after tomorrow, but as time went by that plan went out the window, so caution is still the watch word imo. Having said that the way next weeks HP develops and takes charge looks far more plausible to me; moreover it's not promising the kind of silly numbers we saw touted for later this week only 5 or 6 days ago, so this one does look like a very welcome runner.