Doctor96
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Doctor96 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
the gfs from this morning showed most of england under -11 uppers but it is milder than it should be and i have had rain recently. but then the new gfs 6pm comes out and the uppers are now -10 instead of the -11 . how can these things change , it is like the morning prediction was incorrect only a few hrs later. -
Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Doctor96 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
Doctor96 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
Doctor96 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Sorry looking at last nights radar temps -
Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter
Doctor96 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I don’t understand the east is under -11 uppers but looking on the radar with temps everywhere is positive temps , mostly 3 c plus . Why is it not colder -
February cold spell discussion and chat
Doctor96 replied to Paul's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Many on here get excited when we have minus 11 uppers and talk of snow . However currently where I live 12 miles inland from coast it is rainy with temp of 1.7 c and the uppers are -11 c . We really need for low ground ( majority ) pretty cold air to get snow . Will the east coast really see snow on the models this week or is the bbc correct sleet -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Doctor96 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
phil blake the north sea is mostly 5 and 6 C not 6 and 7 , which is really pretty cold . -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Doctor96 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
BLUE ARMY here in the north east of England i am looking forward to the beast from the east which is just about there with the GFS . -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Doctor96 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Guys how can we not like this an easterly with snow , surely this is the holy grail , but at the moment for northern half of uk . if you are in the north east this is something special -
Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?
Doctor96 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Watching the gfs this morning , surely this is great for most of the east of the uk , but many on here seem down this morning , don’t get it , unless you live in the west . Also the south east gets hit hard with snow from the front coming up from south east . -
Mike honestly widespread 6 C over most of lower part of north sea is usually seen in February and not January , so it is a bit colder , but if we get super cold air in an easterly as may be comming i think we all will be happy . I recall i think 1978 or 79 with a stiff easterly mid february when Newcastle was cut off and i got stuck at school . The army was called out . Will we see that again thi february with the modesl showing great potential
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SST North sea i do not post much , but every month in winter I watch the north sea temperatures and tonight there have been quite a few comments on the north sea temperatures. I have no doubt that the SST for north sea at the moment is colder than average . However some of you have shown graphs with anomaly warmer and others colder . you need to see what is the comparison . if the comparison is to 1971-2000 then we are about in line but for the period post 2000 we are colder no doubt. Usually we see temps of around 5 c in march , not in late January for parts of North sea. I reckon with the temps being still low we will see the sst get lower and this will make east cost weather more snowy and less marginal in february.
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Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Doctor96 replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
when do UKMo and ECM come out with there next model forecast sorry to ask this question -
Blue army let’s hope . Can not believe the change in models this late , can GFS be that wrong
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Blue army . that graph shows box and whisker plots , so minus 15c is an outlier , ie a mistake