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oasis

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  1. The more of a straight southerly flow into the arctic, the higher latitude the high pressure will establish itself. If there is a bit of jet energy pushing east like on the ECM, then the high pressure will establish further south. Though if it too much energy goes east then obviously the high will completely collapse. Hopefully the latter won't happen, and at least some part of the UK gets pasted. And at +168 on ECM we see a sub -20 cold pool setting up in Poland waiting to be advected westwards.
  2. I think UKMO would potentially be better for those living further north, due to its higher position, while ECM would potentially be better for southeners. A la GEM, sub -15 uppers and all that. Of course the run is still to complete, but seems it could set up that way.
  3. ECM 96 seems better than GFS 96. Though not knowledgeable enough to know how it will turn out. Less intense vortex south of Greenland, stronger high pressure over Scandinavia. Seems kinda similar to ICON.
  4. It would be nice from a coldie's perspective if that was the case. I think someone said it's the biggest stratospheric reversal in many, many years. With all that cold pooling on the models to the north east seems -10 850 temperatures with day time maxes no higher than 3 or 4 degrees are almost guaranteed if the jet energy can dive south. And as mentioned that's the very peak if the sun comes out, from 12pm till 4pm.
  5. Just a thought, but could the higher resolution of the good models ops actually be lowering their accuracy at this moment in time? Maybe the operationals are picking up in more detail other parts of the climate system like GWO and MJO, parts which are against mega extensive blocking, thus diluting higher blocking in them, while the lower resolution runs are not able to pick up so much detail on the MJO/GWO and are instead more purely reacting to the overwhelming stratospheric signal? Hence more extensive northerly blocking in the lower resolution runs and the lower resolution models? Would anyone know if the higher resolution runs are more higher resolution relative to lower resolutions runs in the strat or with regards to tropical feedbacks? @chionomaniac @Steve Murr @bluearmy @Catacol Plus anyone else interested who could answer my question.
  6. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    I saw mentioned about lack of stratopsheric tropospheric coupling in near future, suppose if these charts can happen, that would mean upper vortex not filtering down?
  7. Is this the right place to put this? Jason Furtado suggesting lack of stratospheric troposphere coupling in foreseeable future, which I think means tropospheric weather patterns can run their course without intereference from the stratosphere. Good news for cold weather fans if current long range forecasts continue as they are. Ie, strengthening vortex won't cause problems from above.
  8. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Question I would ask, if this hypothetically happened something like shown on 12z run, is it 2 weeks too early? Maxes showing at 5-7 in south on 12z.
  9. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    To my eyes, gfs ensemble mean at 10 days better on 12z than on 6z. Stronger looking high pressure over arctic.
  10. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    ECM showing siberian high extending further into the Arctic than GFS at +240. Expands from 216 to 240.
  11. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Some of those ensembles heights over Arctic are very high. The op run a cross polar flow - crazy. Pushing those blue 850 hpa temperatures into Svalbard and around.
  12. Steve Murr if reading, we're seeing a lot of stressed vortexes in the ensembles at t 240+, I remember reading something last year about the Arctic oscillation in November quite often being connected to winter CET. Somethng about at least 1 month being colder. Was that you? If so, that theory may be tested this year, if the AO can be negative for the month.
  13. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Looking through ensembles at T240 IMHO I'd classify about five (25%) of them - tops - as having a healthy,strong vortex. Does anyone remember if that's normal for november? For so many ensembles with stressed vortexes to appear?
  14. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    Ensemble mean on 18z at 120 high pressure to NE marginally stronger, troughing orientated slightly more N-S than on 12z. Little things built up like that over a couple of days could help keep high pressure more in place to the NE for longer. I think assisting in wave breaking and stress in vortex? With possible consequences down the line.
  15. Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    6z not quite so bad. Weakish UK heights sort of holding on. Yes is odd, though what is weird is that we have seen the height rises in Spring and Summer.
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