Ventnor Viking

The evolution of the 12hr GFS is still looking fine to me. The models will chop and change patterns slightly however its the theme and trend that's more important. There are certain scenarios that the models can't deal with well, one being a messed up strat/SSW. Therefore the models will not handle the coming weeks well in terms of accuracy. So it's important to focus on the evolution i.e. where is the HP heading and where is the cold air shifting etc. Its not guaranteed we will see the perfect set up, but if the trend and general theme remains similar then we are in with a shout heading into mid January.

Definitely, It can be a blessing and a curse, the south of the Island is quite hilly so that makes a big difference in both summer and winter.

Thats a shame you didnt get to see any, its fairly high up here, about 300 ft asl so that probably made the difference.

Just had an hour of Snow on the southern tip of the Isle of Wight in Niton. Surprised really, the temps dropped right off and the light rain turned to snow so overall fairly pleased.

Winter is rubbish on the Isle of Wight! Virtually all of the UK under 3c and some even in the minus figures, but here in Ventnor is 7.5c and feels really mild out

Very similar set up to 2010....The first image is heading into December 2010 and the second image is 207hrs of 12pm GFS run. Just need some deeper cold to the east.

Merry Christmas everyone and a very happy Friday for those who dont celebrate. The models still provide many possibilities for cold conditions, which I think the coldest will come from the east still in January. I don't do IMBY, but if I did, the southern tip of the Isle of Wight will get 0 cm of snow with the current set up. However, I am looking forward to seeing others reveling in the white stuff!

Exactly, as we head in to FI it waters that scenario down, however I fully expect that to strengthen on the next few runs and to see no return of zonal conditions, as FI shows for the foreseeable.

From the 252hr NH view onwards on this run you can begin to see a HP over northern Russia start to retrogress (move from east to west) into northern Scandi. This is very common when the Jet weakens. This will be something that really catches my eye as the likely scenario would be to retrogress to Greenland/Iceland and draw in some very cold air from Siberia, even the uppers would be cold

I still can see this being the case. I'm sure there will be many disappointed but the NH profile as a whole looks good, but not really for us. Im sure we may see a brief cold/cooler period just before the New Year. The uppers aren't all that cold and the HP orientations just aren't good. That along with the energy just west of Greenland just won't allow for a decent set up for us to tap into anything cold. It will probably just end up being frosty mornings and wintry showers/snow in Scotland over the hills and mountains leaving the rest of us with cold and wet conditions, with the possibility of wintriness over the high ground of any fronts pushing through from the north and that's at best. p.s Mods this isnt a moan or to wind anyone up. Its just bringing some much needed realism into the mix.

If the current models run were to verify, which is highly unlikely, then central southern England would miss out on all of the action, again! I prefer a good easterly for the UK rather than coastal snow with a northerly.

I totally agree, I've probably sounded like a Grinch in here recently, but how many times have we been lead up the garden path.

Looking at the latest models, it looks as though there is too much energy just west of Greenland to allow any linking or ridging to form a decent block. The most probable outcome based on the latest runs are that the cold spell/s will continue to be watered down. Any cold spells will be short lived and if we dont get a SSW warming then things could become more zonal when the energy from Canada/Greenland push the HP east/south east.

I had a feeling this might happen.....I hope users don't get annoyed with others because they see a less cold solution. Anyway, the NH profile allows for more possibilities early next year, but according to the Met long range models amongst others suggest this could be a pretty snowless winter.

The ECM 240hr looks good. However, the energy to the west of Greenland/Canada could make any ridging short lived.

it really will be on a knife edge what happens here. The cold is not far away and just some slight changes in the positioning of the incoming LP will make all the difference. This will dictate where the amplification will take place. It will only take a small change for these things to happen. However, it could also go the other way and turn very mild. Its so close and things wont show up until last minute.

On the plus side the GFS is further east so could produce some eye candy in FI 12z 18z

Everything slightly further north on this run so far. Needed it to go south really. 12z 18z

Hi - please could you tell me where this is? I cant seem to find it.

So close again....Not enough amplification this run, that combined with a strong jet keeps things moving rather than forming. We aren't a million miles from something decent. The jet needs to weaken and shift south then that will allow for the amplification to take place. I cant see this happening before christmas. It will more than likely happen new years time, if at all. Looking at the longer range models, its looking like a milder end to the winter so something needs to happen sooner rather than later.

Posted November 26, 2018 (edited) GFS keeping things mild up to 144hrs The pattern is unlikely to change until mid-late January in my opinion based on all of the long range models and the fact that we are continuously chasing FI November 26, 2018 by Shaftesbury Snow ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The post above is what I posted back 5-6 weeks ago and was based on many different models, solar activity, sea temps etc. and I got slated for it, even called vile names in a private message! However, I had 7 separate users message me to see they agreed but didn't want to post because of the backlash they saw I had, even from forum hosts. I don't feel smug, I just feel the regulars should give other people a chance to voice a realistic forecast not based on emotions, which many of you do!!! Its almost like being an out of towner going into a local pub and feeling uncomfortable in here, this is also back backed by others that messaged me. I see many of the "respected forecasters" (you know who they all are) repeatedly get in wrong in here with only love shown to them. I put a prediction which was well considered, but due to circumstances could not elaborate on at that time. I was planning later that evening to back it all up, instead I had to deal with playground intimidation. I have had training in meteorology and would have loved to have contributed to this local pub, I mean forum!! I couldn't care less if this gets taken down as I don't even bother here, but this is just some feedback in case anyone with a realistic forecast different to yours comes on here. Happy New Year all

Unfortunately a SSW doesn't always mean cold and If we have a HP over us then it would make energy less progressive towards us and divert else where more than likely to our east. Its sometimes easier to go into a SSW with zonal weather as its more fluent and can be displaced far easier for a block to form.

The position of the HP is obviously crucial here and Im sure there will be some interesting variations within the models over the next few days, especially with to how far north it pushes. Also worth pointing out, HP upper air temps can sometimes be higher than surface temps especially when frost and freezing fog are involved.

Hi Ben - Indeed, I agree that it will be more mid Jan (I think I updated y thoughts on that in other posts). It looks like there are attempts to get things colder for Xmas but the likely hood is that it wont be as cold as it is modelling now. With the the way NH profile is looking shaping up its normal to see lots of different scenarios put out there, which is always easy on the eye, but its equally important to keep perspective as well. 2-3 weeks from now the models should hopefully be showing something consistent and with the help of a much talked about SSW could bring us a decent set up for cold

Any snow on Saturday night will be unfortunately transient and wet. Better than nothing I guess. The NH is looking great for the new year though...patience is needed, it will come though I'm sure