Ventnor Viking

Good Evening All, With things looking interesting towards the end of the month, one thing I'm keen to see is the Atlantic high linking with the Arctic high and seeing some retrogression. So far the GFS, ECMWF showing a link and the GEM (possible split) and linkage showing from 240hr onwards. This is important because any energy above the Atlantic high and to the northwest of the high could collapse it south, but so far so good.

I live on the southern coast of the Isle of Wight and have finally seen a covering

The last 3rd of January could be very interesting in terms of cold. For me the most important aspect of this transition to very cold is the low coming up from the south west. This will not only bring a lot of snow to the midlands north initially as it under cuts the cold air, but will also strengthen the north-easterly feed and bring it further south. That low will be the proper start and should be seen as the feature that drags the deep cold over the line (south coast)!

I think if you are a cold weather lover, unlike me then I think there is more reason for optimism now. Many of the models are getting a strong Greenland block/Arctic High link up in place and there are some very interesting charts across many of the models, which are all signalling at bringing systems in from the NE. The positioning is irrelevant at this stage because its upgrading quite quickly and will possibly show some quite cold and more reliable synoptic's within a shorter time frames.

I heard somewhere a while ago that the GEM was great for forecasting cold solutions and more specifically arctic and northern hemisphere modelling. If I remember rightly it was because its the Canadian model and they needed it to be specifically accurate for cold forecasting etc.

Still looking milder in the medium term across nearly all models, still along way to go with the displaced vortex. One thing I personally feel is that the deep cold wont reach us. We may get a few sliders if the HP keeps some depth to it, but all in all the over picture (at the moment) is for the HP to sit over us, probably more southerly for a while and bring in foggy and frosty weather and not practically cold either.

Definitely, it happens nearly all the time.

I did see that, but I think it was always touch and go in the track of the precipitation. I think its just bringing cloud now mate and not much in the way of precipitation.

Afternoon all, It looks like our next hope for snow will be Friday morning and is likely to be light and more of a flurry. Then the winds change to more of a west to north westerly, with an Atlantic influence from Saturday onwards. The transitioning of the HP is so key for the next phase of our weather. If it topples and flattens then theres every chance things could be more mild and mobile for a little while, with the majority of the cold staying out to the east north east. My hunch is that we will turn more westerly and flatter for a while, many of the models are going for that too. The PV split just isn't falling great for us. We need less of the cold heading in to Canada and NE USA. When this happens the cold from the vortex chunk mixes with the mild Atlantic and fires up the jet. I

Light snow in Niton (Isle of Wight) temps 1.5c and dew point -0.5c

I am very familiar with SSW, Its not an annual but also it hasn't been uncommon in recent years. The point I'm making is why is my view (which is actually being modelled) more provocative then members purely speculating on charts that really aren't being shown. It's tiring to be honest and boring because its like telling a story of hope! Those posts should be in the ramps and moans thread. I get the NH is all over the place, but Id prefer to talk about what the models are showing. If not, we are just speculating and we could end up in fantasy land adding bits of story on. It really is that annoying. I could sit here and say, this time next month will be a snow fest, yes Id get likes and be very popular in here but it ruins it. People have called for people when the models have gone against cold for a positive post to get excited again. It really is a problem here, just my opinion and nothing personal but I read some posts and have to double check the runs in case I've missed something! its crazy sometimes! That said, yes it could change, but it hasn't so I wont waste my time it.

How many times has it been said that it will start to show in the coming days/weeks, no offence to any posters, but I must watching different runs to everyone else. All of the cold is pushing out to the east and the HP is collapsing... Yes there will be some surface cold for a while as standard with winter HP but nothing significant. The new members must be so confused.

The GFS is actually following all other models now with regards to showing a flatter more westerly flow in the latter stages. I know there is excitement re the SSW, but it was never guaranteed to go in our favour. Its easy to lose focus on the output and to get excited about events that haven't happened. Its really important to stay impartial and level headed in these types of setup. For the newer members, please look for consistency between models.

The Isle of Wights winter weather summed up in one picture........

I agree...but that's not showing or anything like that now. I'm not contesting what's possible anything is including milder conditions but I'm merely saying so much gets blown up with out any fact or evidence.

Again I agree, speculation from nothing can spiral and confuse people, especially new comers. The Atlantic is dead and so is the SPV but nothing is being modelled to suggest anything other than bulk standard cold. Id love to sit here like so many and say the colds happening etc! But if you questioned me on that I couldn't back it up with clear evidence or strong reliability. My comments on what is actually being shown has been contested more than speculation posts and that is my point....its very odd.

I agree. For me just seeing come consistency and talking about what's actually showing is a good place to start. If not you get pages of discussion of what everyone wants to see and not what's being modelled, it must be confusing for the new members.

I'm not being negative or rude to anyone, just being realistic. It "could" but hasn't and absolutely a frigid run hasn't shown yet so not worth talking about. I think it would be so much easier to discuss what's being presented. So many talk so positively and people get excited about maybes, I just cant. I need to see consistency at a much closer timeframe to become optimistic, been here too many times.

It could develop, I personally cant see it happening so quickly within a couple of days and then making it to us. Seems very unlikely.

It would be unlikely, unfortunately. The deep cold (-10 or lower) is up in Siberia.

Certainly not writing the winter off. As I stated, there will be cold around, thats hardly writing off. When you look to the east - no cold and when you look to the north its very moderated and very inconsistent. I could be like many others, including yourself and say what "might" or "could" happen, but I'd like to stick to what is being shown which is no real deep cold and the modelling is always being pushed back....

That it is, however everything is always modelled 7-10 days away with not much in the way of real significant cold. The easterlies are not that cold and the northerly cold is moderated significantly on its way down. Just a strong hunch.

Looking at the lastest models runs, still so much uncertainty between all models. Looking at the general pattern, temps and upper air, it looks like there will colder conditions around (compared to most recent winters) but it feels like this winter will be the one that was so close to providing something amazing, but didn't quite make it. The visuals don't match the actual conditions if that makes sense. Not a moan, just an observation.

Not for the south of the midlands its not if you are referring to the ECM. The north of England, especially the high ground and especially Scotland, maybe.

Its snowing here in Niton!......not really, rain here too. Although I think as we go into next year we have a good chance :)