seaside 60

Are many of us going to loose CAT 1 almost straight away this thurs or sat. By the way what and who is proof of settling snow in an area and is it a pic with snow that lasts for 5 mins or something.

If you look further up on this page he mentions it there (19 hrs ago) above one of your posts.

Tom did say 30th April cut off date otherwise I was going for next year. Trouble is a dusting is totally possible for the next 2 months, esp up on a hill early hours back edge front type, so really impossible to guess lol..

CAT 1 NONE CAT2 25TH MARCH FRANCIS ROCKALL 954MB CAT 3 25TH APRIL -1C CAT 4 10TH APRIL

You would have had me as well but my computer developed a hard drive fault and had to be repaired over the weekend before I could have entered. Mind you would have been total guesswork.

Can I forward another comp to run along side it. How many people profess to be basing their guesses on a scientific basis or just picking dates at random.

Miles out so far the last two months, so pretty poor results. 5.7 c 77 mm Please..

Really start noticing the extra 20 mins of daylight now, esp when you out in the afternoon and it is a clear day.

Whats interesting on that chart is 2013. The year it seemed to have snow on the ground here for ages late winter early spring, so there is still hope.

Is that the same mega warm temps as has been forecast for over the last week, yes it got to 16c in Scotland but generally its been no higher than 8c down here and def not feeling mild.

Just when you think its going to be a dryer month the models start throwing out wetter charts for the next 2 weeks. Was convinced down here was going to be high pressure dominated for most of the month. Think I might be to low now on the precip side of things.

Dont you think thats because the PV is forming later every year now allowing for more of a meridianal flow, till the switch flips when the Arctic properly gets cold start of December. Its given us down here far more frosts early in the autumn than I can ever remember and I am right next to the sea which early season is warm and stops frosts normally.

The driest month for a while overall one thinks esp for most of the southern half. How far over us will the high get, how much cooler air will form with little winds. Its been far cooler here than what was suggested for this last weekend and after. Lets go for 4.6c and 37mm.

All it has seemed to do down here is rain every day, I cant see how its not higher totals. We are not used to it at all here, not sure how people cope with the incessant rain that other places round the country have lol..

Les Gets is a lovely resort if a little low at times esp the other valley, not sure but the village may only be 1150m. The Mont Cherie is used to be quite with some lovely easy off piste through the trees. We been there several times, a fair while ago now. You do have the back up of Avoraiz but used to be a queuers paradise lol. No doubt it has changed a lot since we went. You sound like a good skier, think you have been several times, there used to be some lovely totally off piste to the right of the highest ski lift, if I remember correctly. Have a lovely time there.

SO many people, so many decent temps taken with 5 plus people. Not sure it will be far enough from the average to gamble low or high. Left page open and totally forget to enter on time again. 4.4c 88mm

Lets face it all the Autumn forecasts have been a bust overall.

I cant believe how much snow has fallen in the Alps, even down into the valleys, in fact more than some winters, also up in Scandi land, up to 10c below average for the first 10 days of Nov. In Katsberg as example still forecasting another meter of snow in the next few days. sods law says by the start of Dec to Xmas it will have all gone, but compared to previous years, wow. Also makes a mockery of the Seasonal models that said NW Europe would be a high % above average.

6.9c 96mm Thank you.

I think this is a way forward esp as often there is loads of snow falling after the seasons shut in the Alps. Even if it just does a few runs in most resorts, it starts to bring in an income and skiers can get some skiing in. Esp as before the 1st/2nd week of Dec its only locals ish that ski.

Both these articles are very good reading for the enthusiast. Its written very well with no headliners and fanfare as can be seen, I found it very educational and people that just look and think winters over should actually read this and they will learn a lot about how the long range forecasts work and their variants.

There were couple of months where this incessant warming of the averages hasnt affected them. October is one of them, there must be some sort of reason why it hasnt.

Thats interesting to note there is almost no difference between the 61-90 and 81 to 10 averages on this date.

So with all the outside signs of prospective cooler weather like all the sea ice loss etc, solar min, you seem very certain of agreeing with the models. In no way am I disagreeing with you and it may well be right, but do you not think you are reading into it as gospel. I see you have answered that already, sorry.

Can an educated person in here explain to me how the winter forecasts from ECM and Glosea have produced the above "predictions". I ask as fairly up with weather trends I read about almost record low arctic sea ice, open arctic waters, solar minimums with very few sun spots, a starting record low polar vortex etc etc. All as I read on here positives for proper cold winter spells, I know its an average for DJF, but how are this years signs from the seasonal models so much different to last years bust of a more colder winter, to produce a what looks like typical dross of a wet/warm winter. One hopes that they will bust the other way as they did last year.