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Dr. Astro

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    North West England Weather discussion 16/01/16 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Looking at the latest models, I would say places from Warrington to Manchester could do surprisingly well out of this sliding system. 

    It's still early so don't be disheartened at the moment, were only at 1PM. 

    Temperatures will begin to fall again soon enough, although a little rise is expected around this time. 

    It's going to be more of a now cast, rather than a forecast, as some places 5 miles down the road will be getting snow, and the other side will be rain/sleet until later on in the night. 

    I would expect the Peaks to do well, aroundMacclesfield Forest / Teggs Nose way. 

    • Like 1

    Hurricane Alex

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    Latest...

     

    HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016 Alex has been maintaining a fairly impressive appearance on satellite imagery, with a well-defined 15-20 n mi diameter eye embedded within cold cloud tops. Recent images do suggest some warming/erosion of the tops over the southwest quadrant. Dvorak T-numbers remain near 4.5 so the current intensity is held at 75 kt. Sea surface temperatures are now below 20 deg C and should continue to cool along the path of Alex. This, along with a little increase in southwesterly shear, should result in gradual weakening. However, Alex is expected to maintain hurricane strength while passing near or over the Azores. In 24 hours or so, the global models show a distinct warm front over the northeast portion of the circulation. This suggests extratropical transition, and the official forecast reflects this. Later in the forecast period, the global models show the system merging with another extratropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic. The initial motion is slightly east of due northward or 015/19. There is essentially no change to the track forecast reasoning. Alex continues to be steered by the flow of a shortwave mid-tropospheric trough that has been rotating around a broader trough to its northwest. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn gradually to the left with increasing forward speed over the next couple of days. The dynamical track guidance models are in excellent agreement for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and the official forecast is near the consensus of these models. This is basically an update of the previous NHC track prediction. Alex's wind field is likely to expand as it nears and makes the extratropical transition. The wind radii forecasts are based primarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

    • Like 2
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    Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dr. Astro

    5 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

    Maybe to the untrained eye, but I have had years of following the models and you can't beat having the experience of witnessing the eventual outcome, northerlies bring mainly fine weather to the majority of the U.K. In winter.  If there is a more continental flow, things will improve for cold and snow lovers so that's something to look for in future outputs.

    Well, there we have it all.

    Ignore the models...

    We just require a trained eye as ours seem to be lacking in that department ! 

     

    • Like 24

    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, knocker said:

    An ensemble forecast comprises multiple realisations for a single forecast time and location. The different realisations are generated through applying different perturbations to a single control forecast. For the ECMWF medium-range forecasting system, the control forecast is a coarser-resolution realisation of the HRES forecast (the high-resolution forecast). The perturbed forecasts are generated through:

    The ECMWF weather prediction model is run 51 times from slightly different initial conditions. One forecast, called the ENS control forecast, is run from the HRES ECMWF analysis. An additional 50 integrations, the perturbed members, are made from slightly different initial conditions which are designed to represent the uncertainties inherent in the HRES analysis . The initial perturbations are constructed using the singular vector technique and perturbations generated from the ensemble of data assimilations

    The mean is the mean of the perturbations.

    You can read more here: 

     

    http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/modelling-and-prediction/quantifying-forecast-uncertainty

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    Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    The Met Office forecast says colder not cold. That can simply mean average or slightly above average temperatures as opposed to the well above average temperatures we have now.

    As John says, there is  zero sign of anything remotely cold away from Northern hills into the New Year.

     

    Yea, nothing remotely cold on the horizon.

     

    image.png

    • Like 11

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Agreed, with last couple of posts.

    I dont mind cold and dry (certainly better than last year's storms), but snow is what i want on occasions in Winter.

    This Winter just hasnt delivered here (imby) - my frustration is tempered by the fact that i've taken more notice of Ian F's updates, the Meto and the likes of John Holmes this Winter.

    Not to say others like Chiono havent posted some top notch stuff, because they have, but i suspect those Meto models are pretty damn good, most of the time.

    I mean that Meto contingency forecast which was shown on here in November has been proved pretty damn accurate.

     

    Yep, there has been some great posts by the more knowledgable, Steve, Chiono, Ian, John etc, but one thing is for sure, the Met and Ian are nearly always spot on in what they forecast. I think this is because they HAVE to keep a level head, and not get sucked into things because thats what you are looking for...

     

    Those who look for snow, will see snow, whatever the charts are showing.

    • Like 1

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    ... indeed, what people seem to overlook is that march 2013 was a very rare event, so whilst march can be cold and snowy...the odds are stacked right against it.

     

     

     

    in reply to these... depends what you want from winter though doesnt it?... i suspect many looking for cold arent really content with a light/moderate frost by night, sunny 4-5c by day and snowless. it DOES look like winter MIGHT be over in terms of a deep cold snowy spell, that would be a fairly safe bet in the next 24 days. so if people are happy with march blizzards preferances, fair play! but i think hes right and people want snow not frost.

     

    Have to agree with this. I'd say 95% of members on this forum want Snow, and just cold with a bit of frost isn't wetting the appetite of many.

     

    Just had a good look at the profile this morning, and it's bleak, to say the least. HP dominating for the next 15 days or more, cold, dry & benign.

     

    Anything can happen after that, but all I see is a flat pattern with not much interest.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Dr. Astro

    BBC (MO) are still reporting the onset of a bitterly cold easterly on thursday and lasting through the weekend on the Nat weather at 08:20 (and repeated at 08:50).

    They stressed this signal last night, as I reported, and Knocker posted up a GFS chart showig a rapid extension eastward of the high off northern Ireland into Poland and the Baltic Sea.

    This chart was again shown this morning by the gorgeous one (Carol) and she was indicating that it would last all weekend and the high would not be toppling quickly and maintaining the 'even colder' air into the southern/central porton of the UK, whilst stayig cold to the north.

    They seem to have picked up this signal and it is not just a one dayer for thursday. as many people on here have been saying

    PS This morning at 8:30 my local BBC forecast ( for the midlands) did not show this scenario with mildish temps and a light northerly. They have changed overnight.

    Could it be that we have missed this extension to the cold whilst looking too much for the next cold spell in the 10 day period?

    MIA

     

    Hi MIA,

     

    You are not far wrong. I think people are just looking for something more widespread, but for the Southern contingent of the UK, the following charts highlight a pretty good snow risk tomorrow, not 10 days into the future, but tomorrow. I'm surprised this place isn't more busy.

     

    Strictly for the South then...

     

    We have the 528DAM line:

     

    hgt500-1000.png

     

    850's are good, some places tipping the famous -10C mark:

     

    h850t850eu.png

     

    The flow is good from the ENE:

     

    h500slp.png

     

    The min temps are good:

     

    ukmintemp.png

     

    The precip seems to be light to moderate, but appears to be in streamer form across the South for several hours:

     

    ukprec.png

     

    The precip type appears to be snow:

     

    prectypeuktopo.png

     

    The "experimental" snow depths highlights the risk:

     

    uksnowdepth.png

     

    The Isotherm will be no problem:

     

    0degisotherm.png

     

    And the UK Snow risk clearly highlights the opportunity:

     

    uksnowrisk.png

     

    All in a T24-36 hour window.

     

    Albeit the FAX has it a little more marginal:

     

    PPVG89.png

    ECM singing from the same hymn sheet:

     

    ecmt850.048.png

    As is the GEM:

     

    t850slp.045.png

     

    I'd day some in the South are going to see some snow tomorrow.

     

    After that, it looks very dry and benign until around the 13th February.

     

    Enjoy your snow, whoever gets it tomorrow.

    Query about cloud cover forecast map of the Faroe Islands

    in Weather Around The World

    Posted · Edited by Dr. Astro

    Hi Tim,

     

    Welcome to the forum...

     

    http://www.sat24.com/ is quite good, it goes about an hour forward, but you would be able to see any incoming cloud.

     

    There is actually a detailed discussion here:

     

    http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~jander/tot2015/tot15intro.htm

     

    In regards to the TSE.

     

    I was thinking of going myself but March is notorious for cloud cover. It will be luck of the draw i'm afraid.

     

    March_MeanCloudCover.png

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    With respect dr astro, posting notably unreliable temp prediction charts for TEN days time as proof the high will be cold, is pretty unlike you sir. Theres huge uncertainty as to the position and orientation of the high. Plus no one has yet made a scienced based post as to why this high will be a cold clear high as imho its got cloudy written all over it with a circulation off the atlantic.

     

    Your right. I was trying to balance out the original post, finger jerk reactions ! It's the MOD thread, making me insane. :angry:  

    North West England - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Well no frosts here yet again! Is it actually winter?

     

    After a quick glance through the models before heading out, I have to say they look very poor now for snow. Bit of a change to the optimism from last nights runs. Oh well see what happens tonight...

     

    Fixed your post.

     

    It's cold already, but agreed re snow prospects.

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