MidnightSnow

This has piqued my interest I was fully expecting it to go the other way tonight and even miss the south coast altogether. Still in the game and something to chase.

At the very least it's been fun on here in the past couple of weeks (for me anyway) - Just the thought of potential heavy snow makes this depressing month a bit more exciting, even if it's all a fugazi Kinda like being in the casino and being up for a few hours but ultimately coming away empty-handed. Doesn't mean those few hours of delusion weren't fun

Nah I'm chasing that bad boy until the very end. Not interested in swirly bands or snow showers, they never come to anything for some of us.

I've wondered this for a long time and would also like to know the reason. At one point, some of the models had this low pressure system hitting Northern England. In future we need to hope one of these low pressure systems from the SW is forecast to hit the Highlands. Then maybe it will hit the south coast of England.

With the colder temps filtering further south on this run... I'm wondering if this will have any impact on the midweek low? i.e. Does it increase the likelihood of the low heading into France, or does it make no difference?

I still think there's enough time for the low to adjust north. If it's showing the same thing on Sunday, then yeah... the writing's probably on the wall. The people who talk about shower feature's popping up of nowhere are usually in favourable locations. Some of us only do well from frontal snow so I fully understand your disappointment. With a half glass full perspective, locking in deep cold isn't a bad second option. Hopefully we get one or two more channel low's further down the line. One of these days it's gonna hit just right.

If the ECM / UKMO / Met Office were all looking poor, but the GFS was showing nirvana, many on here would happily dismiss the GFS. So why wont you do the same when it's the other way around?

GFS12z is an absolute snorker

First time I've seen the ppn reach as far as the West Country / South Wales. Fully expecting the showers to fizzle out before then but maybe not

I really, really like this update. Quite often they sit on the fence and cover all bases. This seems more assured than usual. Lets hope the same kind of language is used in the medium range update in a week or two

I know it's been said many times before, but given the fact that lows historically end up further south... why not just assume the same thing will happen again? Would it not be a safe bet to assume the low on Sunday/Monday will be 50-100 miles further south than what the models are currently showing?

Not long now

Going by some of the graphics on this page, it looks like the Wednesday low stalls during the afternoon / evening. Is the M4 corridor the sweet spot for a change? Am I seeing that correctly?

Would snow cover tomorrow, help with snow chances for the rest of the week? With it being fairly marginal, could the cold ground make the difference?

As a southerner, I was genuinely hoping to see the low trending northwards this evening (wish granted) - This is around the time period where the low looks primed for the south, and then slowly sinks towards France as we get closer to reality. It would be much worse if it corrected south tonight IMO.

I can confirm that there is truth to this. There have been countless events where we've just missed out on snow (IMBY) and 50 miles north have been buried. The M4 snow boundary is real!

I know these low res snow charts aren't to be taken literally and will change from run-to-run, but something to keep an eye on at least. I personally considered the xmas period to be a write off for our area, so even a chance of snow on boxing day is a bonus.

I really hate how much weather affects my mood I know beggars can't be choosers in the UK... but I would've loved it if the cold spell we just had, happened two weeks later instead. Could really do with some upgrades in the medium-long term. Seems like there's a little bit of hope at least. I think most of us coldies would sacrifice a week of this mild dross if there was something to look forward to after christmas.

Same! I keep refreshing the MetO website in hope that they extend the warning area for snow. It's definitely further north than forecast so lets see

The very top band of the PPN looks like the perfect angle for a Bristol Channel streamer Wishful thinking I'm sure.. but that's the fun part. Surprise snow is the best snow.

Is the hope of that low on Tues / Weds being further north, all but over now?

Is the ECM the only model to show frontal snow in the south next week? Saw some glorious charts in the MOD thread this morning, but I'm guessing people think this scenario is unlikely as cold & dry seems to be the tone.

"Get the cold in the first, and the snow will follow" With 10-14 days of cold / very cold weather coming up, let's see if this old adage proves to be true or not. If most of the country is snowless over the next couple of weeks, then we collectively should dispel it as myth

I was wondering this myself because this scenario wasn't talked about in the MetO 10 day video. He said there was a 30% chance of the low going through the spine of the UK, and a 70% chance of it heading into N France (only affecting South coasts) - I was also left thinking if there's a middle ground scenario like you suggested in your comment.