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Cold Winter Night

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  • Gender
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  • Location
    Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences
    Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.

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  1. The decrease in activity in this thread over a little more than one week is as big as the difference in weather here between last Sunday and today. Last weekend I went skating on the lakes nearby with subzero temps, today it was 16c with flowering snowdrops and crocuses and all the lakes and canals are fluid again. Still, there are interesting things in the output for coldies. It's funny how the charts you show would only take a few little tweaks to bring the deep cold West again. Could it happen?
  2. It's fun when there really seems to be something "brewing", even if it's in FI, but charts that show cold, but never come one day closer: mehh. Let's see where this goes. I give King Winter 2-3 weeks more to come up with something, after that my focus switches to Summer mode. "Hot Summer Days" instead of "Cold Winter Nights".
  3. First get it within 240 hrs, with solid support from GEFS, EC and EPS. So far, it's lacking in that regard. Chasing these cold charts at 300h is more fun in November-January than it is in this 2nd half of February IMO. I'd like to see one more cold spell, not quite ready for spring yet, but only if it's a proper one. In March, that should be with loads of snow.
  4. Taken at face value, the weather with this chart would be very cloudy, rainy and chilly. Not much wind though (isobars far apart). Unpleasant weather for most still. There would be some discussion in here about what the heights near Scandi will do, if they increase, they could move the cold West. The Greenland High is retreating and will not help much, but the jet and the train of lows that accompany it are on a very Southerly trajectory, so it will remain on the colder side, rather than milder. Technically not a West-based negative NAO, but the effect is the same. However, this is
  5. Well, this cold spell was a bit of a mix between transported cold from the Russian Arctic and radiative cooling at night. Perhaps some of the moderation of the Russian cold over the Baltic Sea was underestimated? I think the flow was also more slack than originally forecasted, and for my location I know that there was more cloud cover than even the short term high resolution models forecasted. With cold spells, in this case an Easterly, everything has to be right for it to be severe and lasting. The UK is fully surrounded by seas and an ocean, the European mainland has the ocean to th
  6. About the cold vs mild battle: Last week we expected that the models would underestimate the resilience of the cold block. One week ago, the model output for Holland consistently showed 4-5 days in a row with daily maxima between -5c and -8c and minima below -15c. That is very cold air, and very difficult to move. However, apparently the models across the board overestimated the depth of cold, because although we are seeing ice days in Holland, they are more -1c to 0c during the day, and between -5c and -10c during the night. Less cold, therefore a less resilient cold block, more
  7. GEFS is produced by NOAA-NCEP. Their data are available here: NOMADS-NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System NOMADS.NCEP.NOAA.GOV I would not be surprised though if it were quite a puzzle to get those complex data sorted out. It would not be my favourite chore, but perhaps you're a data freak? 😉
  8. If the Operational run is the outlier, it may mean something different than any other member that is an outlier. Especially now that the second High Resolution run, the operational-to-be paints the same picture. The resolution will be what makes the difference. I would not take the ensemble as serious as at other times. Tomorrow's 0z and 12z will be very interesting. If they persist in building a Scandi High-like feature, expect the ensembles to flip later. Exciting times, still! I felt a bit of model fatigue, now that the cold has arrived here, with snow and ice. Being ou
  9. Continued attempts to amplify on EC Op. Even though it seems the Atlantic is ready to overrun the High, pushing it into Europe, the resistance is still there. We are not looking at a traditional strong Atlantic/Euro High combination setting up by any means. Add to that the underestimated resilience of the deep cold over Europe and there you have it: Lots of uncertainty, despite models that seem to agree. FI is close by again. The thing with undercutting a High is: It's like walking on a seesaw from one side to the other. It stays down one way, until you cross that middle point,
  10. Wow, for a moment I thought I was in the moaning thread. Things are really not as bad as some portray it in here. UKMO would still go on to build a Scandi High, on the T850 chart you can see the WAA going NE. Admittedly, that may not be the best news for Ireland, Wales and Western parts of England, because you would have that milder air coming in for a couple of days, but an Easterly would still follow. Eastern parts of England, like Holland, where I live, would remain in the cold to very cold conditions we are already in. GEFS meanwhile has a better Scandi High shape
  11. I suppose for a Feb 1991 style set up it should align like Feb 1991 😉 That would be like this: GFS is not far from it.
  12. EC follows another route than GFS obviously, but not necessarily a worse route. EC 240h reminds me of late November 2010. These two charts from the 22nd and the 24th of Nov 2010 could very well be what EC 264h and 288h would have looked like:
  13. Incredible, isn't it? And at 240h we it's still cold, and that is Day 11 of the cold spell already.
  14. Last week we've seen huge swings, with FI around 96-120h. Now, everything seems to have stabilised quite a bit. As always, at 144h there are some differences between models and between runs, of course, but to me it really seems to be more about when the Scandi High + its Easterly will set up, and how cold it will end up being, and not really if it will set up. I don't really see what's wrong with UKMO tbh, unless someone from more Western locations evaluates it IMBY. The difference with GFS is tiny, I think. To me, it already feels like such a luxury postion. I just c
  15. If today's output doesn't get a BOOM, then what does? With these two charts as the 'here and now' and the 'deepest FI', what more can a coldie wish for? Truly stunning, more so as I am switching between computer screen and window, where I see the outside world getting whiter and whiter! This cold spell is at 0h right now, and there doesn't seem to be an end in sight. I haven't heard much lately from the "SSW was a fail" crowd by the way, wonder why.
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