LetItSnow!

February 2001 had an extremely wet opening to the month and was on course to be another exceptionally wet one, but some anticyclonic weather in the middle section of the month stopped it from tipping into the exceptional category, though it still has an EWP average of 105.3mm. I think further localised flooding in the south occured early in the month. While January 2001 was a break in the north it was another very wet one in the south, strange month in some ways. April 2001 gets forgotten for how wet it was as well, coming after the extreme rainfall in April 2000. Nowhere near as extreme as that but it has an EWP of exactly 100mm. Remarkable period that I have heard is absolutely remarkable and unprecedented for its extremeness so the fact we could rival that just 22 years later is quite extreme.

WYorksWeather Apple Weather app showing a 0C minima on Saturday night for central London, almost spat my nonexistent drink out my mouth!

Summer Sun As mentioned, what makes this so ridiculous is how this would be a warmer than average first half to April. Insane warmth.

If only...

Forgot to enter for February so I'm cooked when it comes to winning anything this year... Still, it's fun to play. My preliminary entry will be 7.2 and 90mm please. I may change if a particularly strong signal appears closer to the time. I'm thinking it will be a mixed month, quite wet, some cold spells but offset by mild nights and probably will have some decent anticyclonic spells.

Rain All Night Just flip the pattern around for a nice cool, crisp, bright northerly and that would be much nicer.

We're only in February so I would suspend any thoughts of guarantees where we end up for the year, regardless of the global situation, though I would find a "cool" year unlikely in the christmas pudding, 1998 and 2007 are good examples of a year flipping to less anomalously warm conditions and that could happen. Warm will always have the upper hand in the christmas pudding but less warm periods like early 2018, the second half of 2020/first half of 2021, December 2022 etc - they're the exception rather than the rule, but I don't think that every year will now be 11+C, but I also in no way want to downplay the severity of that having occured. Our warmest yearly C.E.T. outside of a calendar year IIRC is still May 2006-April 2007 with a 12 month rolling average of 11.6C. Scary that now we "hunt" for what will be the first 11.5C or even 12C annual year. Back to basics though, I think if 2024 is another 11C year then that is just horrifiying, but I don't see it set in stone. I ignore long range model output at this point. It's suited me well. I still believe in years like 2010 and 2012 occuring, even 2015 (which would have been a very unexceptional year if not for Nov/Dec).

Well, hopes for a cold winter came to zilch! I'm updating my predictions for fun. March 2024: A very standard post '80s March with a couple glancing blows from the north-west that deliver cold rain to 95% of the country, otherwise unsettled. Duller, wetter and milder than average but with one spell of quite nice weather that lasts a couple days and sees us reach between 17-20C, but mostly unsettled. April 2024: Very warm, very dry and very sunny. A classic April. Our first dry month since June. Probably a spell of very warm weather at least once or twice during the month that gets us into the mid-twenties but not to record levels. May 2024: The dry weather turns out to be a blip and overall it turns out to be a very wet month with frequent periods of low pressure, however, the nights are often mild and there are some spells of plume-ey southerlies, so the month ends up rather warm despite unexceptional maxima. A very thundery month in places with flash floods in the news at times. Sunshine I'd imagine would be rather below normal bar some sheltered places. June 2024: A very boring month that's overall dull and wet but not exceptionally so, just very often changeable and gloomy. It ends up being our first month to below the 1961-1990 average since December 2022 but just fractionally. July 2024: To the surprise of everyone who thought that July 2023 was a dud and that it would be unlikely to get two poor Julys in a row in the current era, it does exactly that and is cool and unsettled, though not overly wet. It ends up being another month in a row to be below the 1961-1990 average and ends up being the coolest July since 2012 as we sneakily manoeuvre a way to avoid blistering heat across the continent and end up with a lot of northerly airstreams, but it ends up a lot sunnier and drier than July 2023 so people don't end up complaining too much. The warmest spell of the month ends up being very tame and only in the region of 27-31C. August 2024: It ends up being the poorest of the summer months and ends up far wetter and duller than normal and gives shades of August 2008, though the dullness stops the C.E.T. from being exceptionally below normal. We end up with the coolest summer since 2011 while Spain is left as cinders like with each year since 2015. September 2024: Quite dreary, but not overly wet and with temperatures close to normal, just a lot of anticylonic gloom. October 2024: Quite fine and dry and our first dry October in six years. Temperatures close to normal but hiding some variation between some warm days and cold nights at times. Quite sunny but further spells of anticyclonic gloom at times. Mostly quiet but then out of nowhere we get a named storm that ends up blowing a lot the leaves off the trees, annoying leaf spotters. November 2024: Fairly chilly, especially for modern times. Quite a lot of high pressure so overall quite dry, but stormy spells at times. Mostly quite dull. High pressure dominated and we get some tame easterlies that everyone wishes had occured a month later. Our first drier than average season since 2022. December 2024: A seasonably cold December with a fair bit of blocking. The fourth drier than average month in a row. High pressure does lift/retrogress enough to allow for at least one easterly spell so not completely without snow. It ends up fulfilling the promise that the first half December 2022 that failed to follow with. 2024 as a whole: The year tricks everyone into thinking that another 11C year is set in stone but ends up taking a 1998/2007 style pattern and delivers a poor summer and cooler second half to the year. It still ends up as a warmer than average year but is our coolest year since either 2021 or 2013 - not exactly hard to do. January through August takes us on course for another very wet year but a dry end means that rainfall ends up unexceptionally above normal overall. Overall: A warm, wet and dull spring - a cool, wet and dull summer and dry and dull autumn with near-normal temperatures. Most notably, a dull year.

I think we’ll probably have a warm and wet spring overall, but I think one month will buck the trend, either in terms of being much colder and much drier. Perhaps a spring like 1998, which had a very mild and I think wet March, near normal April that was very wet, but then a warm and very dry May. It may not pan out exactly in that order though; perhaps we’ll have a dry and warm April and an unsettled May. Either way I have a guess that the spring will be like 1998 or 2007, both similar springs just in a different order. I think we’ll probably see a potent northerly at some point that we would have bitten an arm off to have had in February. In 1998 there was a static temperature pattern between February and April with 7.2, 7.9 and 7.7 being the CET’s off the top of my head. Wouldn’t be surprised if something like that occurred.

Derecho Means the winter C.E.T. would roughly be around 6.6C so we're heading for around 3rd to 5th place in terms of the warmest winter ever. The question is are we going down 2022 route where the warm anomalies go into a hot summer or a 1998/2007 route where it all collapses as we go into the summer. Despite being warmer now these anomalies have to break at some point. Edit: Just to add about how ridiculously warm February is now, if we come in around 8.2C then the rolling 10 year average for February will be a ridiculous 5.9C, over 2C above normal. February really is the month that seems to be warming the most.

After seeing a (very unlikely to verify) cold chart for early March, it lead me wonder on how many cold Marches have followed mild Februaries. I scoured through the historical data to see what interesting charts I could find. March 1867 was a very cold March (3.1C) after an exceptionally warm February (6.9C) and made up a very turbulent extended winter with extreme contrasts in temperature. December 1866 was unusually mild (6.1C), then January was cold (1.2C), then February was almost six degrees warmer. February 1867 was mostly unsettled and zonal with persistent Iberian heights which ridged closer in the second half which would have been very springlike. The change came in early March and pressure began to retrograde and by the 7th there was a bitterly cold easterly across the country. Low pressure tended to anchor to our southwest and bring in persistent easterly winds right up until the final week when cold relented and Atlantic air began to improve temperatures. The temperature see-saw wasn't over as April 1867 switched back to warmth (9.3C). March 1867 was fairly wet (78.7mm) and I imagine would have been very wet/snowy at times in the south. Just two years later and another spell of wild extremes, this time even more so. March 1869 was almost four degrees colder than February (3.8 vs 7.5, an extremely warm February in the warmest winter on record). Whereas February was extremely zonal, March was persistently cold and blocked and a tad on the dry side (I suspect a lot of raw, cloudy weather). The swings were more extreme this time with a very warm April following (10.1), then a cold May (9.6). A less extreme version in March 1877. February was generally mild (6.2C), zonal and fairly wet but cold outbreaks occured in the final week and at the end of the month, giving way to a cold and unsettled March (4.9C), this one featuring more in the way of northerlies and north-easterlies and being on the wet side. Could imply it was snowy for the north and less so the south. Unlike the last two years, this was part of a generally cold spring all the way through. The next year features a March that even 2013 would shudder at. February 1883 was generally very wet, mild (5.9C) and stormy, but became anticyclonic toward months end. The anticyclone persisted into the opening days before retrogressing and unleashing a bitterly cold tempest on the 6th. Then followed a brutal, unrelenting spell of cold weather that lasted until the 29th. March 1883 has an extremely cold C.E.T. of 1.9C(!), colder than almost every winter month since 1991. However, it was actually quite a dry month and fairly sunny in places, so it was often probably frosty and bitterly cold at night, more impressive considering strengthening March sun. Trevor Harley writes: The lowest recorded temperature over Easter: -14.2C at Braemar on Good Friday (23rd). Overall it was the coldest Easter period on record. There was snow on Easter Monday (26th) and in many places the maximum temperature was around freezing. We only go two years ahead for our next example. February 1885 is interesting for two reasons: One is that unlike previous Februaries mentioned, it does have a go at getting cold mid-month with northern blocking but fails to come to much and is overall wet, mild and zonal - two is that it's the only well above average month for temperature (5.8C) of the year in a generally very cold year. March 1885 is generally rather cold (4.5C) but without any particular interesting synoptics, just dry and probably quite dull. A big leap ahead to 1937 next. The winter of 1936/1937 was very wet and very mild and most of February followed suit, being one of the wettest Februaries on record (194mm of rain at Kew) and also mild, but it became cold in the closing days with a southerly tracking low allowing cold air to dig in from the north and turn rain to snow. Trevor Harley writes: Most notable for a great blizzard on the 28th. Deep drifts across the west and north (12-13' in Nairn). Some drifts were reported to last throughout March. There was a severe snowstorm in the north, particularly NI & Scotland from the 11th to the 13th. The cold March (3.6C) was a blip in a generally warm first half to the year with a warm April and May following (9.2C and 12.2C). It was another wet month though despite the flip to cold (89.5mm). The next example is somewhat split into two, but I'll include it anyway. Most of February 1946 was very unsettled and mild (5.9C) but it turned cold as the month came to a close as the weather pattern became blocked. The first half of March 1946 was very cold and very blocked with frequent easterly winds. In contrast, the second half was much warmer with a "heatwave" starting on the 25th and into a very warm April (9.9C) with readings in the low twenties widely across the country. Despite this, the cold first half meant the C.E.T was only 5.1C. It was a very dry month. February 1980 was mild (5.8C) and unsettled apart from some snow in northern areas during the first three days. March 1980 continued the unsettled theme (very wet with 102.2mm EWP average). It became progressively colder as the month went on. There was some snow midmonth, accompanied by strong, biting easterlies on the 19th. 20 cm of snow closed Aberdeen airport on the 17th. Overall, March 1980 has a C.E.T. of 4.7C. While not an overly cold March in and of itself I'll also include March 1995 which was rather chilly (5.5C) and featured wintry weather at times. The winter of 1994/1995 was extremely wet, very mild and with little snow apart from a severe snow event in the north on January 25th. The heaviest snowfall of the year in southern Britain fell on the evening of March 2nd, particularly around Birmingham. 15 cm fell over Wales, the Midlands, and the outskits of London. Another Arctic plunge resulted in a snowstorm on the 28th, causing disruption NE England, with the Pennines badly hit: 35 cm at Holmfirth in Yorkshire. After the snow, -9.8 C was recorded at Altnharra in northern Scotland early on the 29th. A very changeable, seasonable and extremely sunny March overall. I suspect March 2024 won't be making this list but you never know!

Something interesting to see here; the recent and exceptionally warm uppers we just experienced on the 15th look very similar to this chart from February 5th, 1869 10C uppers bathing most of central and eastern England. Reminds me of a chart from August 1879 that had 20C uppers (Yes! In that totally cold, rotten year). It's fascinating to see such climatic extremes occur in such a different era and also that while events like it are more likely now, they aren't neccesarily unprecedented.

46 years ago the great SW blizzard was raging on

Daniel* Go back and see pictures I uploaded earlier. At least locally a very different picture with blossoms, daffodils, some bushes and even some trees in what appear to be the first signs of bud. Never known anything like it.

Ceased any hopes or cares for excess cold weather now, but I can’t say I’m hoping for warmth yet at all really. As I’ve been saying, it has been so mild and the trees are so advanced I can’t see it being a good thing to get a freak warm spell only to have a cold snap afterwards. Hoping for quite a bog standard, changeable March and save the warmth until April.

WYorksWeather Who's to say it won't be another year to add to the pile of very wet years but with short, intense dry spells. I think, bar naturally occuring events like 1974-1976, our future is looking very green and muddy

An exceptional run of warmer than average Februaries since 2014 with 2015 and 2018 the only exceptions. Must be one of the fastest warming months in recent times. A lot of Februaries in the past ten years would be a mild March 50 years ago.

1903 is one of those "classic" unseasonable years along with the likes of 1974, 1998 and 2011. Exceptional winter mildness followed by a very cold April, and infamously bad summer which included one of the longest continuous spells of rain ever known, then the only fine weather of the year came in September, but it didn't last long as then came the wettest month ever known in reliable records, October 1903 with an EWP average of 218mm. The last one isn't unseasonable so much as it is extreme. 1903 was a very extreme year. In contrast, 1904 was a lot more benign. So much so the only month Trevor Harley wrote about was November! 1903 looks like a pre-AGW version of many recent years tbh: mild winter, cold spells in the spring, an unsettled summer, warm spells in September, turbo charged Atlantic in October then generally mild with transient cold blips across November and December. The synoptics for February 1903 are impressive though and wouldn't look out of place today with that massive slab of high pressure over Europe. The C.E.T. for 1903: 4.2 7.1 7.1 6.4 11.1 13.0 15.3 14.3 13.1 10.5 6.4 3.3 - 9.3 What I think the same synoptics would produce now: 4.7 7.6 7.6 6.9 11.6 14.5 15.8 14.8 14.6 11.0 6.9 4.8 - 10.1

These pictures sum up just how mild it has been. Blossom coming well into bloom staggeringly early and tons of daffodils are sprouting up. What’s more disturbing is that when I looked closely at some of the trees, some are actually starting to bud. I know we had that cold phase in January, but as I have said before, I think the persistently warm autumn and December have meant that 10 days of frosts or so haven’t been enough for it to go into proper winter mode so it’s raring to go, the extreme mildness since January 21st adding to that. Would be interesting to compare growth to this point in years like 1989, 1990 and 1998 etc. I may be wrong but I cannot recall such an early advance of wildlife. Trees budding in February feels spooky.

matty40s I fear it's going to be brutal summer down to our south with persistent drought and warmth building as early as January.

To further compoud my message from the other day, flowers (not just daffodils) are now rapidly blooming in the park and blossom continues to advance. Ridiculously mild almost non-stop since the 21st.

Metwatch With a very wet December, I assume it wouldn’t take much to put this winter into the upper echelons of wet winters?

It’s seemed ridiculously mild down here this February so far. I don’t rely on app forecasts too much but we’ve only had about one day of average temperatures and most of the time it’s been in the low/mid teens. Blossom is flowering in the park rapidly and the bush outside my front door is starting to leaf… in early February! I’ve said this before but the extremely late winter and potentially early spring setting up I think means that apart from a cold spell in mid-January, there hasn’t been much of a real winter to speak of. Wildlife getting confused.

Just looked at the MO report for January 2024 and it seems we are having interesting run of extremely sunny January's. IIRC, January 2022 was the sunniest ever, January 2023 the second sunniest and now January 2024 the sixth sunniest.

matty40s Looks like another wet winter for California then after last year's brutal torrent. Complete opposite of what was going on ten years ago.