LetItSnow!
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Not quite sure it's fair to say claims of it turning unsettled are hyperbolic. Compared to last night the GFS (left) and ECM (right) are still showing a trough in our vicinity by mid-month.. The 0z of both look quite similar by Wednesday the 15th with a trough generally over/to our SW. Cloud amounts, weather fronts and such is useless guessing at over a week ahead, but I will remind some that troughs don't always produce the worst weather. Slack troughs in the warmer months can often produce quite a lot of convection and unless you have cool uppers then days will probably be warm, especially if the sun makes an appearance. This chart looks poor on the surface but it doesn't neccesarily mean everywhere will be stuck with cloud. A bit like the trough a few days when quite a few places saw sunny spells. Generally though it seems as though the unsettled, potentially thundery outlook remains at the moment with a risk of rain bands and thunderstorms peppering the country I reckon. Definitely no sign of protracted cooler than average conditions if that's what some are concerned about. The current spring temperature record is looking flimsy!
By day 9, a long way out, but the GFS 0z keep to bring high pressure back to the northern-half so perhaps a split. The ECM setting up something that could lead to a continuation of poor weather.
The ensembles of both show that the overall pattern is likely a trough of some kind by Friday the 17th. Usual caveats apply.
What with the storms this May so far and an unstable period potentially coming mid-month, wouldn't surprise me if May 2024 could go down as quite a thundery month.
Shades of May 1999 perhaps, often warm without exceptionally high temperatures and with quite a lot of thunder.
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B87 indeed!
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B87 I’m pressing the buzzer and saying 2016!
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I’ll do another one.
For the time the winter was poor but would be decent by today’s low standards. January the coldest month of the winter but the snowiest weather occurred in March. A very blocked spring that tended to be warmest and driest in Scotland but relatively poor further south-east. A very bad summer with shockingly low maxima at times. September was about as warm or even warmer than July. The autumn generally was unsettled and wet but with an interesting snowfall in early November based on its location. December was a mild one though.
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Wold Topper Actually a good time to ask since I never have known for sure, but I always thought the Lounge area was for strictly non-weather related stuff? Perhaps I’m wrong. I’ve never really been over there much. Maybe I’ll start.
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Weather Enthusiast91 1978.
I'll do one. The previous December had given hopes of a classic winter to come, perhaps even the winter before had been a "teaser winter". The year started with a great frost but it quickly fell apart and the rest of the winter was, at times, record-breakingly mild. The spring was a mixed bag and the summer was generally quite poor though parts of the country saw some very big storms from around July 29th and through the first-half of August. September provided some relief after the drab summer. The autumn was generally more shades of grey (not a clue, this was before that book! THAT is a time frame clue though). December was almost a classic but near miss synoptics and poor uppers meant we missed out and Christmas was very green and brown.
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2 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:
What a turn around from late last week, when there was talk of temperatures being limited to low 20s only
To be fair, I do remember seeing a couple days ago the first idea of a warmer pulse of air and commenting on it, though at that time it was on the 10th, now it's probably around the 12th.
Taking my usual look at the GFS (left) and ECM (right), they show a general agreement until the 13th. High pressure naturally relaxing back eastward and drawing up a very warm south-easterly flow, though with weakening pressure a risk of things going BANG and maybe more general thundery rain.
How they individually handle weakening pressure by the 16th is different though. The GFS is keen to send the low into Europe and build a ridge in, possibly dry and warm weather after a thundery break. The ECM is much different and forms a major low pressure system which would risk further deluges and a wet May.
Both ensembles show signs of at least weak pressure over the country by Thursday the 16th. At the moment it seems this is the signal so by day 10 it could remain quite thundery with some torrential downpours and longer spells of rain around. Either way though it's all looking warmer than average. Even if something like the ECM came off it would probably return warmer than average means due to mild nights.
Things can change though. We've seen before a run pick something up and then be right so don't discount a more settled look, but to me I think unsettled, and possibly thundery, is a relatively safe look for mid-month.
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Since 1993 has been resurrected a little in another thread, I thought I'd point out that I had no idea 1993 was as dull of a year as it was. I'd never assumed it was a sparkling year by any accounts, but is the 6th dullest year on record for the UK wide series, so a very gritty year indeed.
summer blizzard Not a cold autumn by any stretch but it is funny how the temperature anomalies did indeed reduce by the autumn. Something which would not have been easily believed at the time you typed this comment back in May 2007!
On 12/05/2007 at 23:03, summer blizzard said:As look would have it, 1952 is a minor anologue this year, so an outside chance of a cold Autumn, but being realistic, it is doubtful we will see such negative anomolies this year.
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On 26/04/2024 at 16:44, B87 said:
An anti 1954 or 1958 would be great.
Anti-1958 using reverse coloured maps and Met Office data.
January anti-1958: Changeable. Slightly milder and duller than average; dry. A week of very mild, balmy SW'lies from the 18th to the 25th before a spectacular drop in temperature with winds turning to the north by month's end.
C.E.T.: 4.3 (+0.4) / EWP: 68.6mm (84%) / Sunshine: 96%
February anti-1958: Very dry and very sunny but rather cold. Coldest further south.
C.E.T.: 3.0 (-1.1) / EWP: 29.4mm (45%) / Sunshine: 130%
March anti-1958: Mild, wet and rather dull. Some very warm spring temperatures. Exceptional warm spell mid-month for the time of year mid-month with 23-24C widespread across the London/Home Counties region.
C.E.T.: 7.4 (+1.6) / EWP: 83.2mm (134%) / Sunshine: 97%
April anti-1958: Very wet and rather mild with about average sunshine. Notable warm spell early on culminating on the 5th with temperatures into the low/mid 20s.
C.E.T.: 8.8 (+0.7) / EWP: 108.4mm (184%) / Sunshine: 102%
May anti-1958: Dry and slightly warmer than average. Average sunshine. Rather changeable and cool at times in the first-half but becoming warmer and drier later.
C.E.T.: 11.7 (+0.3) / EWP: 48.1mm (75%) / Sunshine: 100%
June anti-1958: Very dry and very sunny; warm by day but with cool nights so overall near normal temperatures. Exceptionally dry for most of England and Wales but closer to normal rainfall across Scotland.
C.E.T.: 14.3 (+0.1) / EWP: 34.1mm (51%) / Sunshine: 136%
July anti-1958: Changeable but overall dry with near-normal temperatures and sunshine. Particularly dry in NI.
C.E.T.: 16.3 (+0.2) / EWP: 66.5mm (84%) / Sunshine: 103%
August anti-1958: Very sunny and dry but with near-normal temperatures. Generally a lot of usable sunny, warm and dry weather with no great heatwaves.
C.E.T.: 15.8 (-/+) / EWP: 56.9mm (69%) / Sunshine: 138%
September anti-1958: Cold and dry. Generally sunnier in the Midlands and the west but dull in the east.
C.E.T.: 11.9 (-1.6) / EWP: 43.7mm (54%) / Sunshine: 102%
October anti-1958: Wet and on the chilly side. Dry and at first but turning more cold and unsettled as the month progressed. Particularly cold by night, especially from the 20th-23rd.
C.E.T.: 9.6 (-0.6) / EWP: 109.7mm (114%) / Sunshine: 103%
November anti-1958: Wet and stormy but very sunny. The month was remarkably wet across the Lake District region. Rain fell every day across much of southern England in the second-half of the month.
C.E.T.: 6.4 (-/+) / EWP: 153.5mm (165%) / Sunshine: 133%
December anti-1958: Dry, sunny and slightly cooler than average. Unsettled at first but becoming anticyclonic.
C.E.T.: 4.1 (-0.4) / EWP: 67.3mm (78%) / Sunshine: 132%
Annual C.E.T. - 9.47C (-0.03)
Annual EWP - 869.4mm (94%)
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The biggest difference between very warm years of the past was that even then there was usually at least one cool/cold month in the mix. You wouldn't get a autumn that chilly now. Nowadays it would probably pan out more like:
Jan 6.9
Feb 6.0
Mar 6.9
Apr 10.0
May 11.7
Jun 15.2
Jul 18.3
Aug 16.1
Sep 13.8
Oct 10.6
Nov 7.0
Dec 7.6
Annual: 10.8
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Derecho Wow! A May that warm would send the spring record flying and certainly put us far ahead in the runnings to record a 11C year again. Certainly seems since September 2021 we've entered a new phase entirely, off the scale. Only time you can compare it to is May 2006-April 2007 and even then it lasted only about a year.
Exciting but worrying times. I'll certainly be watching the model output carefully.
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Frigid I'm usually the first to notice things like that! Interesting
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WYorksWeather It depends on the second half, which is uncertain. But some of the patterns suggested look quite unsettled. To be fair it's not just the 2nd and 6th that have seen some rain here. I agree though. If you had a summer month with a big storm on the 1st but the rest of the month was mostly rainless/light rain then you wouldn't think of it as a wet month. But whether that happens or not is undetermined at this stage.
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Summer8906 If you flick through the charts for March 1998 it makes sense. That long HP spell mid-month but also even when it was wet and stormy here there tended to be a pronounced ridge around the mid-Atlantic/Azores. The effects of El Nino at play...
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Things could change but with a weakening of pressure likely by the 13th/14th and with such heavy rainfall in places this month already I feel like May will be another one to add to the wet pile...
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A hypothetical thread just for fun, but I've wondered what a year would look if you took the pressure anomalies from the opposing month and see what results it would produce. For example, taking any given January, looking at the 500mb height anomaly and seeing what it might bring in July. A similar concept to the anti-#### thread but instead of flipping the weather, it's flipping the season. One of my ideas @Summer8906
I thought I'd start with July 1997-June 1998, a period that featured quite a lot of unseasonable weather. Perhaps flipping it might bring something interesting in a different way. I'll start with July 1997, our hypothetical January. We'll call this year 7991. Oh, and some artistic liberties were taken at times. I wasn't as detailed as usual though.
A cold month with frequent easterlies, though mild in the far north. One of those near-miss months where the brunt of the cold floods into France and Spain. Coldest and snowiest across the south and east. Never extremely cold but a lack of any notably mild weather. Quite a lot of anticyclonic, frosty and foggy weather.
January 7991 - 2.6C / 33mm
A very blocked month with frequent snowfall and very cold at times. More of an Atlantic influence at times with fronts giving heavy snowfall to south-western areas. I'm thinking there'd be a big February 1978 style blizzard at some point during the month. Because of that slight Atlantic influence, not as extremely cold as you may think but still a severe month. Exceptionally dull.
February 7991 - 0.5C / 50mm
Very and rather mild. I imagine a gentle thaw as HP repositions itself and lots of anticyclonic conditions, cold, foggy and frosty at first but eventually warming up with some quite spring-like conditions at times. Perhaps dull in the north though as weather fronts straddle Scotland.
March 7991 - 6.7C / 25mm
Much like the original month, changeable but quite sunny. Alternating between tastes of summer and tastes of winter. A spell of unusually potent northerlies/north-easterlies which bring severe frosts and some heavy snow.
April 7991 - 7.5 / 52mm
Wet and unsettled but warm thanks to a permanent southerly element to the winds. Often quite dull but with some very warm/hot spells. Very thundery. Minima particularly high.
May 7991 - 12.7C / 94mm
Unsettled; cool by day but rather mild minima. Generally wet but quite thundery with slack troughs giving some locally biblical totals. Dry and sunnier in the far north.
June 7991 - 14.2C / 103mm
A warm but thundery month with high pressure often to the east but low pressure to the south-west. An exceptional plume of heat with daily records shattered but also some general fine weather under a strong ridge of high pressure, but generally unstable with a lot of thunder. A very continental feeling month. Humid.
July 7991 - 18.1C / 84mm
A very hot month with some record breaking temperatures. High pressure dominated with only the far north being at the behest of weather fronts. Particularly hot by day with a long spell of 30+C days. A less hot second-half stopping the month from being the hottest ever.
August 7991 - 18.7C / 28mm
Generally warm and dry away from the far north. A sunny, warm and dry month in the same slightly offset by some cold nights. Mostly settled but with some shortlived autumnal topplers from time to time.
September 7991 - 14.3C / 47mm
Exceptionally wet and often windy but with some potent cold spells at times including an exceptionally early snow event across northern England and the Midlands.
October 7991 - 9.2C / 177mm
Generally rather mild in the north but cold in the south. A lot of anticyclonic weaher, often dry and fine with frost and fog in the south, but less prone to fog in the far north due to closer proximity to weather fronts. A very non-descript month.
November 7991 - 6.1C / 48mm
Mild, stormy and wet with frequent Atlantic lows and only brief cold snaps.
December 7991 - 5.6C / 140mm
Annual C.E.T. - 9.68C (+0.18C)
Annual rainfall - 881mm (96%)
Are there any other July-January periods you think would be interesting flipped?
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Looks as though the pivoting of the bands of rain may end up with another spell of moderate rainfall for us later. I imagine some rather big totals in this area today.
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Some videos from the flooding in the Bradford area. Absolutely bonkers totals. Falling on exceptionally saturated ground too.
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7 hours ago, Summer8906 said:
It appears that August 1986 may have been a rare example of cool weather both in north-west Europe and south-east Europe. I don't have a record of the actual temps in Summer 1986 in Greece and surrounding areas, but it does appear that cold uppers were frequent in the region which might imply cooler-than-average and thundery. There seemed to be a large area of cool uppers stretching from NW to SE Europe, with SW Europe best.
Answering your queries about temperature anomalies for the rest of Europe in the summer of 1986:
June 1986
July 1986
August 1986
Summer 1986
Strange summer for Scandinavia, very hot June but a freezing cold August. We had a summer like that back in 1896, may have to do a thread on that one. Would be the second thread on 1896 I've ever done as I covered the bitterly cold autumn years ago.
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Summer8906 Maybe I'll start it! I've got some ideas for fun weather game threads. Guessing games, fantasy years etc. This site needs some fun threads.
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Schnee Storms having an extra impact in terms of flash flooding countrywide due to how wet the soil is probably.
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Would love to know if anyone's under that Bradford area cell / see footage
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Purple colours showing on the radar while these cells are basically not moving... Got a feeling flash flooding will be being reported this afternoon/evening.
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June 1993 was a warm month everywhere and unexceptionally sunny in most places, the exceptions being Scotland and Northern Ireland where it was dull. Extremely wet in the south-west, south Wales and the Midlands but drier elsewhere. Culdrose, Cornwall saw 443% of the average rainfall, a large chunk of that being the 123mm of rain that fell on the 8th. The month was slightly wetter than average overall (103%). June 1993 was probably most memorable for the very thundery spell mid-month, otherwise it wasn't anything to write home about. The highest temperature of the month was 28.6C at Northolt on the 8th.
Here are some reports from those violent thunderstorms:
The C.E.T. of 15.0C was quite warm (+0.8C above normal). It solidified the first-half of 1993 as very warm indeed (January-June averaged +1.0C) with perhaps some ideas that 1993 was heading the same way as the likes of 1989 and 1990 in terms of being a very warm year. But things change very quickly... well, they still just about could back then.
July 1993 spoiled the hopes of a hot summer. It was cool with a C.E.T. of 15.1C, just +0.1C above June's C.E.T. and a full degree below average. It was dull in most places though not quite as dull in the east and the Midlands. Poor Culdrose in Cornwall really had the **** end of the stick with rain as after a June with 443% rainfall, July 1993 had 255%. The same areas tended to be wet, the south-west and south Wales, though it was a wet month overall but not by much (112% of normal).
The first few days of the month were fine and the year's highest temperature was recorded on the 4th, a tame 29.7C at East Bergholt, Suffolk. This is the last time the annual maximum failed to reach 30C. The month is best remembered for a vigorous cold front that came down on the 9th and changed the entire course of the year. It was so strong that mid-day temperatures widely fell into single digits as low as 7-8C in places. Whipsnade had a midday temperature of 7.5C. At Heathrow the temperature fell from 18.5C to 10.7C in minutes in the early afternoon.
August 1993 was the coldest but driest month of the summer with a C.E.T. of 14.6C (-1.2C) and 66% average rainfall overall, though east and north-eastern coastal areas were wet (Whitby had 278% the norm). It was sunny in the southern-half of England and Wales but very dull in Scotland.
There is a very interesting video to send you back in time, it's VHS footage of a trip round London. It was taken on the 4th of August, 1993 on a very grey and rainy looking day.
The highest temperature of the month was just 26.7C at Elmstone, Kent on the 20th.
September 1993 was a cold and very wet September, dashing any ideas of an Indian summer. It has a C.E.T. of just 12.3C (-1.2C) and 148% average rainfall. Only the far north-west of Scotland was sunnier and dryer than average. Sunshine totals were as low as 50% around Shropshire and rainfall exceeded 300% of the norm in parts of East Anglia.
Nonetheless, a very pleasant start to the month with the warmest temperature of the month being 27.2C in Great Malvern on the 1st. The high quickly repositioned itself to something colder from the north afterwards.
Extremely unsettled from the 7th to the 16th with two vigorous low pressure systems coming in from the south-west. Thunderstorms across the SE on the evening on the 7th with further storms around on the 8th. Further heavy rain spread north on the 12th with very heavy outbreaks across many parts of the country accompanied by gale force winds. Fylingdales, North Yorkshire saw 75mm on the 13th. Wet weather remained over the east until the 16th.
A remarkably cold end to the month with the 27th being one the coldest September days since 1918.
The summer of 1993 stats for the C.E.T. and the EWP series:
14.9C (-0.5C)
211.8mm (93%)
May 1999; warm and thundery.
in Historic Weather
Posted
25 years since this firecracker May.
May 1999 was a very warm and thundery month. It has a C.E.T. of 12.9 (+1.5) and an EWP value of 56.2mm (88%).
The month began warm and sunny with high pressure and 25C was reached at Saunton Sands on the 3rd.
The first thundery outbreak of the month on the 7th as a large rash of thunderstorms across the continent grazed the south-east. The 10th saw violent thunderstorms in the north and west. In Wigan a thunderstorm around 12pm gave hail up to 25mm causing small dents in cars in the south of the town. The following days saw further thunderstorms scattered around with a weak trough over the country. There were multiple reports of funnel clouds on the 14th, this one at Corby.
After a few quieter days the volatile weather returned on the 19th courtesy of a slack trough with a warm south-easterly flow. After a warm and humid day (24C), thunderstorms occurred over south-eastern and central southern England during the early evening, moving to the south Midlands later in the evening. Some thunderstorms were heavy in the south-east with hail in places (1cm in diameter at Maidenhead where 20mm fell in 20 minutes, the temperature fell 7C during the early evening storm, pressure rose 2mbar and roads were temporarily flooded). The NOAA12 channel 4 thermal image at 1637 GMT (courtesy of Bernard Burton) shows what appears to be a mesoscale convective system of storms during this event. At Crowthorne, 26.3mm fell between 1630 GMT and 1745 GMT. In Hampshire, golfball-size hail fell at Easton and Itchen Stoke, and the hail was still lying 15 hours after the storm. Conservatory roofs, glasshouses and guttering were damaged by the storm and gardens and crops were devastated there, and several minor roads were flooded. There were also reports of large hail on the Isle of Wight.
Just before the most volatile spell of weather there was a notable thunderstorm courtesy of a strong cold front on a north-westerly wind on the 24th. What was described, on local TV and press, as a mini tornado occured at North Ferriby (near the Humber Bridge) in the evening. Although damage did occur, i.e. branches broken off trees, house windows and car windows smashed by falling trees and branches, it was very localised.
The end of May 1999 featured some of the most intense storms of the month and have definitetly etched a memory in many people's minds. Low pressure associated with some exceptionally warm air (15C into the south-east) gave a very violent day on the 27th. Warm and sunny conditions at first until thunderstorms began moving north-east across south-west England, reaching Lincolnshire and Norfolk by midnight. In Bradninch (Devon), a thunderstorm began at 1800 GMT; the observer noted at least 40 cloud-to-ground strikes with a roof and tree struck; 18.8mm fell from 1800 to 2115 GMT. A thunderstorm at Keyworth (Notts.) from 2245 GMT to 0015 GMT on the 28th resulted from a line of spectacular storm cells slowly moving N across South Nottinghamshire with frequent long lasting cloud to cloud and cloud to ground strikes; a brief period of intense rain followed as the storm gradually flickered away to the north leaving a chorus of car and house alarms. Many observers commented upon the intensity of the lightning displays, while at Chalfont St. Giles a dust deposit was left by the rain. In the Solihull area damage reports included: 30000 households without power, lightning set fire to vent pipes connected to fuel tanks at a petrol station at Cradley Heath, and lightning blew a hole in the roof of a new Midland Metro tram and set it alight.
The 28th was a calmer and cooler day giving a brief interlude of calmness before intense storms broke out again on the 29th. A very warm day with 27C recorded in Southampton. England and Wales began dry and sunny and became quite warm in places. An area of thundery activity (accompanied by hail in places) moved into south-west England by 0600 GMT, moving north-east and spreading to the east Midlands and East Anglia by late evening. A thunderstorm at Bristol (Totterdown) from 1215 GMT until 1515 GMT resulted in 18mm of precipitation, including 10mm from 1325 GMT to 1338 GMT when a 26 kn gust occurred. During the passage of a thunderstorm at Wokingham from 1551 GMT to 1608 GMT 15.7mm of rain fell, with a peak rainfall rate of 199 mm/hr around 1554 GMT over a two and half minute period. Thunderstorms resulted in local flooding in many areas (eg. in parts of SW and Cent S England) and there were reports of small tornadoes in the SW. Rainfall under the core of the storms was heavy, eg. 25.4mm at Cirencester (of which 15mm fell in 15 mins with winds of force 5 to 7). Several places from Birmingham to Wokingham reported rapid pressure fluctuations during these storms (associated with temperature falls as large as 5degC). Hail in a storm at Dartford was 1cm in diameter, while in Danbury (Essex) 17mm fell in 5 minutes. The 30th was a much cooler day with leftover cloud, mist and murk as is so usually the case. The high at Cirencester was just 11.8C.
This paper goes far more into detail about the extraordinarily intense storms of the 29th of May, 1999 so give it a read.
http://www.ijmet.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/241.pdf
The very thundery activity continued into early June 1999.
The arrival of a thundery low meant storms began to break out on the 1st. Thunderstorms were reported from Devon around 1600 GMT and the Channel islands around 1900 GMT. These moved NE during the evening to affect much of Cent S England by midnight; 17mm of precipitation fell at Hurn (Bournemouth) in the 6 hours starting 1800 GMT. The thundery activity spread to Norfolk and east Kent by dawn on the 2nd with 12-hour rainfall totals ending 0600 GMT including 26mm at Heathrow, 22mm at Hurn and 21mm at Boscombe Down. 28mm fell at Reigate during the overnight storms, while the daily rainfall total at West Totton (Hampshire) amounted to 35mm. At Lewes (East Sussex) hail 1 inch in diameter fell around 0230 GMT. The storms brought lightning, which struck a signalling cabin before dawn at Shenfield, Essex, causing rail delays to London. On the Surrey stretch of the M25 part of an embankment subsided. Flooding closed several London Underground stations. In Rayleigh (Essex) lightning struck a house and set fire to the loft. During a catamaran race in Weymouth Bay a sudden squall with a SE force 6 wind capsized 77 boats and led to the rescue of 154 competitors. Roads were flooded in many areas, and lightning disabled the emergency phones on the M1 and M45. There are unconfirmed reports of a tornado being sighted near Hockley Heath (near Birmingham), accompanying a thunderstorm with hail, during late afternoon, and also one over the Bristol Channel near Newport during late morning. In Warwick, 3 people were hit by lightning, and 5 people in York were similarly affected. During the afternoon there was an increase in wind and gustiness in S England; a gust to 49kn occurred at Worthing. In Northamptonshire the leisure centre in Rushden was closed due to flooding; 170 storm-related calls made to the Fire Brigade and 180 businesses throughout Northants were without power during the day.
What a remarkable period for thunderstorms from the 27th of May to the 2nd of June, 1999. And indeed a remarkable year for thundery, being the thunderiest year on record. A vintage year for storm lovers. We really don't get this anymore! As of typing, some of the outlook for mid-May is looking quite thundery so perhaps 25 years later we may see similar conditons... Probably not.