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TomDav

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Everything posted by TomDav

  1. TomDav
    lovely retrogression
  2. TomDav
    NAO going through the floor I would imagine
  3. TomDav
    For comparison, this is the graph of zonal wind against time for 18z. Needs to dip under 0 m/s for an SSW i think
  4. TomDav
    Zonal winds at 10hPa 60N dropping to 14.6 m/s at T384
  5. TomDav
    Heights lowering in the Med, decent cold to tap into
  6. TomDav
    A lot colder than ECM at 192
  7. TomDav
    Nice retrogression of high in FI, hopefully this shows in the morning
  8. TomDav
    That low near Cornwall edging slightly closer i think
  9. TomDav
    nice wedge of high pressure near Greenland in FI
  10. TomDav
    https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/wind_2015_MERRA_NH.html Last technical SSW in mid winter was Jan 2013:
  11. TomDav
    Record breaking in terms of zonal winds but too late in the season to have much impact
  12. TomDav
    The higher the number the better
  13. TomDav
    Great 18z run
  14. TomDav
    Quite strong Greenland blocking at the end of the run
  15. TomDav
    This fix was to remove the anomalous cold pool in the western Atlantic at initialization I believe, so it shouldn't impact future forecasts
  16. TomDav
    GFS showing poss ex-hurricane swinging to north of UK, could be a turbulent time for the models in the longer range
  17. TomDav
    Looks like a very deep low over the pole for the time of year
  18. TomDav
    GFS 18z very warm / hot run, hopefully the ECM jumps onboard soon
  19. TomDav
    NAEFS mode fcst consistent with other models showing brief warm spell, before the pattern flattens out
  20. TomDav
    GFS 12z shows HP building in strongly deep in FI
  21. TomDav
    ECM 12z 240h would bring up some milder air the following frames
  22. TomDav
    Both GFS and ECM 12z runs show south-easterly winds and a brief surge of warm air at day 8
  23. TomDav
    AROME 1.3km simulated satellite imagery for 0600 with an eye-like feature over central southern counties
  24. TomDav
    Greenland / Polar block on GFS 12z
  25. TomDav
    No Technical SSW last year.. That article was published late March and I believe was a final warming which occurs every year
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