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halny

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    Flitting back and forth between SE England and SE Poland
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    Meteorology

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  1. But it won't, really, will it? It doesn't matter how fast the wind is blowing, 5 degrees never, ever "feels" anything like minus 5. 5 degrees in a gale is just really, really vile, and much worse.
  2. The January records for Prague are 17C and –27C, so the record high is the same as for London. Generally, as you head east, the record highs stay the same in the high teens to low twenties and the record lows go down into the minus twenties and thirties, partly due to the greater continental variability of the climate, and partly due to the Föhn effect of the Alps and the Carpathians. If you take Salzburg in Austria, the January records are +21C and –30C. In Nowy Targ in the foothills of the Polish mountains, for example, the record high and low is 16C and –37C. Krakow is 17C and –30C. Once you go east of Poland, or north, away from high ground, the record highs begin to come down too, so in the Ukraine, Kiev has record January highs and lows of 11C and –32C respectively, and north, away from the mountains, Warsaw has records of 13C and –31C.
  3. Keep in mind that above average at UK latitudes in central Canada means about minus 20 degrees instead of the usual minus 30. Even in tropical Ottawa, where it's warming up from -22 to +7, I reckon there'll be snow on the ground. It is good to see Europe closer to average with the GFS showing a significant drop in temperatures over the continent. That probably won't affect us, but it *can*, and that's a start.
  4. I thought someone would have fixed this ages ago, but for months now, you have had a glaring spelling mistake in the title on the Netweather Commercial site. It says ‘Netweather Commmercial’ with three ‘m’s and not two. https://www.netweather.tv/commercial Honestly, this huge error's been there for yonks and I've no idea why nobody's picked up on it.
  5. I remember cycling to work when we got the dusting in London in late October 2008. I wonder what sort of uppers we had back then. Regardless, we've got Tropical Storm Lorenzo to get through first, and my garden's already sodden.
  6. I haven't seen the reanalysis, but is it really record-breaking? There was 5 cm of snow on 12 Oct 2015 in Krakow, (following 35C heat in September and average daytime August highs a shade under 30C.) And I was 70 miles north of Krakow in the snowstorm of Oct 2012 when for three days it failed to rise above freezing. The continent can get very cold, very quick. And yet it'll still rain on Christmas.
  7. Jon, if those uppers around the 15 degree mark were to come off, then provided we have dry weather and clear skies, we could be edging towards 30C at ground level, autumn equinox be damned. Those uppers have produced high 20s in October after all.
  8. Honestly, in spite of the trough, the weather in Central Europe looks only marginally less good than our own. If anything, the single digit 850s seem to produce moderate surface temperatures more likely to be enjoyed than endured. The first part of July is modelled to be pretty nice everywhere, from the Med up to Scandinavia, except maybe Iceland. Long may it continue.
  9. LOL. Brilliant. I meant the "wrong type of snow" from our perspective, i.e. the kind that fails to accumulate, except maybe on car windscreens. Nothing more irritating than getting a full day of heavy, falling snow for there to be nothing on the ground at the end of it.
  10. I'd appreciate 850s at or below minus 10C, for one. Sleety slush, cold rain and "the wrong type of snow" are very much a risk on lower ground.
  11. Minus 40 degree 850 hPa temperatures forecast for Minnesota and Wisconsin, minus 30s across a wide swathe of the Midwest. This is an extreme cold event. I've not seen 850s like this outside of northeastern Siberia in a long time. At times throughout the run you see negative 30s dipping south of the 40th parallel. That's like southern Spain or Italy.
  12. The sun's not strong. We're just in a bad position geographically. Chicago, which is 600 miles south of the south coast of England is forecast a daytime high around minus 20C next week. Winnipeg, which is south of London is expecting sunny skies and minus 32C for a maximum temperature around the same time. The sun is well and truly powerless against negative double digit 850s at our latitude, and will be until late March. The lacklustre 850s in the chart below could throw a few surprises with heavy enough precipitation. I wouldn't rule it out. It's marginal, yes, but 9 out of 10 UK snowfalls are.
  13. Well done for getting that shot of thundersnow. Great stream of snow showers from Teesside to Darlo in the last hour or so. Hoping it resumes and continues overnight.
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