jvenge

Are you sure you aren't misquoting? Any references to support your claims? I ask simply because he didn't use the word brutal in his post. Cold and snowy doesn't mean much :-)

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733 I wasn't in the UK for much of last winter, so no idea if they were right or not. Not that it means too much though :-) Right one year doesn't mean anything really.

They forgot to set the date, it happens! Someone will correct it soon ;-)

Ah, I'll keep an eye on this over the coming months, but no longer really applies to me, since I live in Moldova now. I don't suppose you will all forecast for me will you? Tis a bit limited here!

Hmm. Maybe overnight snow. Hard to see how it could be day snow based on those temperatures.

I'm sure someone will come up with an example of when it has, but fairly sure -6 is generally the accepted minimum. Cold rain and sleet!

Hum. I wonder how the MetO see it. Yesterday they didnt back their own model 100%, but did give a large nod to the change. Cautious and considering how far out, rightly so. I'm surprised to see the MetO and ECM so far away from each other. Saying that, the ECM isn't mild either. People seem hung up on the westerly and zonal, but it still looks to be below average temperature wise.

Eh? The batch of rain coming later, which is pretty much drenching the whole country, is of course not going to miss. What did I miss here? Anyway, things are looking up, but we have seen "promising" things on at least two occasions the past three weeks only to have it snatched away. Although Gibby is on board to an extent, I don't think anyone should get too carried away until tomorrow evening or so. I wouldn't want to see some very insightful posters become some disheartened again. Can't really argue with the Metoffice take at the moment. A few good runs so far out is not something to invest too much into.

Leeds also had a heavy snow shower as well.

You have time to post some thoughts on it? It seems a little new compared to what has been toyed with. Implications? Doesn't look very cold, but at the same time will deliver below average?

The GEM being right while the others say no? Probably. I'm sure someone here will have w chart to show it.Does it happen often? No. You can link the euro outputs to an extent, and obviously GFS completely flipped once this week already. Fairly meaningless though. Come 6pm I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another complete turn around. Then another tomorrow :-) its practically happened every day here this week.

You reckon from around Yorkshire up? Thats what my eyes say, but I'm a newbie.

UKMO is still not too shabby. I think a few people would have said yes please only last week. Hopefully that doesn't dump too much water. We seem to have a model disagreement at the moment. Is it the GFS who is going to redeem itself in the eyes of coldies? ;-) Still though, no models showing a return to mild. Just disagreements on timing, how cold and how much snow. But what would this forum me without a rollercoaster? The last 4 days seem to have been a mixture of doom and cheer, sometimes changing twice a day :-D

Well, I'd love some cold weather, although I'd rather not have it last too long, as I need to travel around a lot :-) However, this is the model discussion thread. Although posts by Ian and a few others explain the apparent end of the cold, it is still in the models. It might be negative, unreliable and down right unlikely, but it is still shown and is therefore fair to discuss. I think Ian also said it isn't a done deal either. Going by posts here, there are going to be a lot of depressed people if it is a snap and I'd like to think a few posters are just wanting to prevent that ;-) So, be it 3 days or 7 or so weeks, let's just enjoy whatever comes. As long as it isn't flooding, of course ;-)

Fairly sure 50% and 60% is a lot in meteorological terms.

They must have been checking the GEM. Certainly weren't GFS watchers ;-)

I'd actually say a big question is how long this is going to last. We have cross model support of a cold spell now. Gibby summed it up nicely though, there is uncertainty as to how prolonged this will be.

Can we say for certain this trash we have had the past two weeks is about to end? ;-) Well, as certain as we can...

Okay, so it means comfortably below the average CET. That helps, cheers. Now, what's the definition of mild and very mild? ;-)

Can you clarify on the GFS a bit? Just curious, as I have previously mentioned that the definition of cold here is an interesting one. When you say unlikely to bring "cold", does that mean it will keep temps where they are going to be early to mid week? Average CET? Slightly below average?

Well, it's an improvement on what we have now ;-)

Can someone explain the logic behind the UK needing a warm up in the US to see colder weather here? Oh, I get how the pattern over that way is chucking storms at us, but I just don't understand the science behind saying the UK can't be cold while the US is cold.

Just curious, but which models?

Thats probably related to the AMO, which impacts Arctic ice as well. Check wikipedia for it. You can probably match colder UK winters to it. Assuming you have 5-10 years left, you should see it

That's quite a safe thing to say as it looks like midweek is turning very mild again. It will be nice for these storms to stop. The woods around here are like a swamp. Ever saw some flies in the house the other day! It will be interesting to see the next move from the GFS. It seems to have a bias of placing lows two far east from what I've seen over the last month, but other than that, I'm not experienced enough to judge its performance.