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jvenge

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Everything posted by jvenge

  1. EPS Mean not so different to the 12z yesterday, out to day 10 or so. Slight shift west for the high. Lots of options in the clusters, one suspects. Although if this potential cold weather doesn't hit western Europe, I'm just wondering about a split in this high and part of it sitting over Western Russia and the other part ending up just below Greenland. Getting quite cold out that way. Not exactly a classic Easterly, but it would certainly deliver. Of course, that's probably at least 15 days away and a lot could happen in that time.
  2. Yep. EPS not really with the op this morning. EPS not keen on the high shifting to Iceland and then onwards, rather keeping it north east of the UK.
  3. The good thing about accuweather is that you can see how their previous winter forecasts fared. Still, they at least stick their neck out and do it.
  4. From an analog point of view - Winter of 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 are quite close to current conditions and forecasts. It won't take too long for you to realise they delivered quite different things ?
  5. In Moldova, eating at the table is a norm and quite a celebrated thing. So much so that a term for a dinner party directly translates to "the table".
  6. Hmm. I have a table in my kitchen to sit 4 (family of 3) and a larger dining table that can sit 10 (I like to entertain) Always at one or the other.
  7. From what I know, as we approach the solar minimum of a solar cycle, interactions with the stratosphere can influence the polar arm of the jet stream. (from memory I think it is something to do with ozone). This seems to happen irrespective of ENSO conditions. There have been a few papers on the subject over the years. A quick google finds this from Nature https://www.nature.com/news/2010/100414/full/news.2010.184.html Influencing the polar arm of the jet will undoubtedly influence the temperature of Europe. It is pretty much how every cold spell comes to Western Europe. You can constantly observe this. That happens to Europe irrespective of what the co2 concentrations are. EUROPE, I said. But we almost go onto another topic now. Because a solar minimum within a solar cycle is one thing. This is widely accepted. It is not yet clear if this year will be the minimum or if it will be next year. The issue is then people tend to try and predict how future solar cycles will be and it gets quite murky. The last solar cycle (or the one we are in) is a long way from a Maunder Minimum type scenario. In a Maunder Minimum type scenario you would have every winter (just about) giving you what a current solar minimum does in the 11 year cycle. There isn't anything assured that SC25 will be lower than SC24 and even if it was, that it would be low enough to influence each European winter. Observational evidence of the current cycle (recent history shows it to be quite low) would point that it isn't low enough to radically change winters outside of the usual minimums. Put simply, a weak SC24 (by recent historical standards) wasn't weak enough. You will find different scientists predicting different things for the next solar cycle. Quite honestly, I'd say its pure speculation to say another Maunder Minimum is imminent. So, even if you got a SC25 weaker than current SC24, it isn't clear if it would be sufficiently weak enough. Added to that, many scientists will take a punt on it being a little stronger than SC24. In general, in the last thread especially, the thread became overwhelmed by people talking about different subjects (past, current and future) that it became a mess.
  8. More recent model runs weakening the proposed (current not onset) El Nino. Awaiting BOM next update. I was thinking the last 3 months it would be ENSO neutral or weakish Modoki. I was favouring neutral, but looks like I guessed wrong according to models. All shall be come clear soon, though. ECMWF and MetO appear to be on the top end of the estimate still. Can change. Solar fairly weak. Not yet clear if minimum. But low, none the less. This, of course, leads to unknowns for the second half of Autumn and early winter. I'm no expert, but I'd suggest that the Atlantic should have a weak influence into early winter, but how the ENSO develops the next weeks to influence Autumn is up for grabs.
  9. It is really unfortunate that this thread is turned into yet another pointless climate change thread. Especially since it is guaranteed to just be an endless circle of argument. Ultimately, as said before, my understanding of a solar minimum is that through stratospheric interactions, it can steer the polar arm of the jet stream away from Western Europe (blocking) and thus allow colder air from the arctic and Russia to penetrate into Europe and sometimes all the way to the British isles. I'd suppose it is a similar behaviour to a text book El Nino interaction (doesn't go to plan more times than not) on the polar arm of the jet, but I haven't really compared the two. It is proposed that during more prolonged minimums in the past that this caused successive colder winters in Europe. But I really don't want to get in to predicting future solar cycles and I would suggest that many people are muddying the waters in here by referencing it. Just what threshold is needed for this to be more of a dominant feature and how it weighs up against other aspects, I'm not sure, but it would seem through correlation that a cold winter usually does hit Europe during or around a solar minimum (i refer to the minimum of a solar cycle, not any grand minimums and the like). This seems to happen irrespective of the ENSO state being neutral, El Nino or La Nina. I'm really not sure of how these interactions play together and which combinations are more suited or not. Perhaps it would take @Tamara or someone to clarify the specifics ? Unclear if this winter is the minimum of the present solar cycle or if it will be for next winter. I suppose that, in part anyway, will be answered by observations until November or so.
  10. I guess cheeky monkey has a point, then. Sunspot levels low, suggesting a minimum somewhere between 3 months ago and next summer, but would this year be the minimum( unknown for now) or next year? Also, is there a threshold for when it kicks in? How low does it need to go and for how long? For 3 consecutive years to make it in would seem a bit generous ? I'm not so well read on the subject, but I'm assuming this is impacting the strat and thus steering the polar arm of the jet stream away from Europe, allowing cold from the Arctic and Russia to cool the continent.
  11. When we discuss solar minimum, are we referring to sun spots?
  12. No, I get it. It's just that it isn't alarming enough, in regards to the initial question ? By the way. Are you aware of any proposals to block any straits in the arctic? Since the big ice loss years seemed to coincide with the natural ice arches not forming and thus certain wind patterns blowing ice out of the arctic where it quickly melts. You would think such an approach is doable, considering the length of most of them.
  13. Hmm? I quite like sprouts. It was bang on average for Moldova, which saw day time highs between 28-32 most days. It actually got to average without any overly hot spells or cool spells. Good storms first half of summer.
  14. Firstly I mentioned ice free in summer, as that seems to be the more near to medium term chance. I don't know where to begin re ice free all year around. Since there is no prospect of that likely in my life time, not worth me speculating now. Coasts are eroding World wide and have been since the last glacial period. So, trying to point to coastal erosion as an issue is just not alarming enough. No sea rise from it. Also, considering how pot holes behave, there is likely a case for a freeze and thaw doing more damage than a continuous freeze or no freeze. So it would be unclear how that would end up. Also, extreme ice and cold is generally bad for a local population. So, ultimately, localities being more habitable due to less extreme conditions is only going to be a net positive. Any increase in erosion (no sea rise) is not going to counter the benefits of a more temperate local climate. Not saying its right, as I personally think it is horrible to lose such a habitat, but the aesthetics aside, it would be a net positive. Could be, but an equally more likely scenario if to go with yours is that the increase in air moisture would lead to increased precipitation as snow fall/rain, which then freezes and adds to the mass. See the past two years. I understand precipitation to be increasing in Antarctica as well. So, it isn't so simple. Rightly or wrongly, the Arctic isn't a priority. Not just in words, but in actions.
  15. I guess the issue with the arctic is there is no doomsday scenario as with Greenland or Antarctica. Nobody can really say why an ice free arctic would be bad in summer. Some might try and handwave some tenuous link to coastal erosion, but thats about it.
  16. Social media has its uses. To answer if it is a social good or not, individuals need to ask themselves what is it stopping them doing, if anything.
  17. Need to see the red line at 266k or so before you can say the bottom, but given where it is and the forecast, unlikely to see it go much below tje current level.
  18. It is quite true that the damage is being done in winter and then leaving it very vulnerable if the right (or wrong) conditions hit in a summer. But.... if you look at the big melt summers, you can't find a clear temperature link to cause it. As in, even when a lot of melt is under way, the mean 2m temps are at or below normal. So, that leaves wind patterns, storms and ocean currents I guess. Water vapour would explain the winter issue and also the slightly cooling summers up there. Forecast for next week or so would seem to be cold. Probably we have seen the bottom this season.
  19. I guess what you refer to is the recent trend of "white privilege". Not sure if it exists on any kind of society scale, but for sure there are bound to be some cases where a white straight man is given the nod for a position based on someones prejudice. Could break that down into many sub groups, though. It could be someone without a degree is unfairly discriminated against. Perhaps someone who speaks with an undesirable accent. Perhaps someone fat. Perhaps someone with some kind of illness. It will be happening, but having worked in four different countries, I haven't come across anything institutional. I guess the recent topic is more along the lines of is there going to be positive discrimination in order to correct some score that nobody is quite able to quantify the existence of or the size of. I don't think it would become a cause for concern until people from either minority backgrounds or some kind of sub group (trans) are given some kind of preferential advantage in the university application process (unfortunately this already happens in the US in regards to race). That could lead to someone more capable not getting their first choice place because they just happen to be in the white straight male category. If you want to have a preview of what is going to happen in workplaces, I think it is a very good idea to look at the direction the universities are moving in. Add 5 years or so and you will have it played out in wider society. So, I'd say it is quite likely that eventually that there is going to be so much positive discrimination of other groups that the straight white man will of course be disadvantaged eventually. That's because there is no way to positively discriminate against someone while not negatively discriminate someone else. (certain amount of open jobs, university places, etc). I don't think you can call that racism, though. It is just identity politics a little out of control and a need for groups to become your identity rather than an identifier. All the while not being able to show empirical evidence and operating only on feelings.
  20. Maybe without tuning into(I don't rule out creating) is what has steered enough social cooperation to make us what we are to question why it only involves humans. Even questioning is a reason enough to seek progress. Something to ponder. There isn't actually evidence that humans are becoming cognitively more intelligent or that we are more intelligent than our ancestors from tens of thousands, perhaps more, of years ago. Yet, somehow, ancient knowledge transcribed into the abstract has been used to unite people and leap us so far forward. Someone, many people in fact, knew exactly what they were doing in trying to align people to move forward. It was many attempts, repeating themes, across ancient cultures. I'd say it is prudent not to try and wipe that out. Luckily most self declared athiests show no inclination to do so.
  21. Oh, there isn't a possible way this thread could be contentious. Religions exist and have even evolved to try and align ourselves with something that we struggle to even comprehend. The 10 commandments and the sovereignty of the individual. If someone tries to interfere with what we consider to be now nothing more than laws, we become enraged. There is something baked in our sub conscious or to use a Jung theory, transpersonal unconscious. Manifested in innate feeling such as the fear of the dark, snakes, spiders, etc. If someone is interested, I'd recommended you read his works on transpersonal unconscious and archetypes. It isn't by chance that the same themes occur across cultures and religions, even continents apart. Not to enrage a self declared atheist, but I generally don't believe what people say, and rather I believe what they act out. Christianity (yes, heavily borrowed from past religions, part of my point) is so enshrined in your every day value structure that it is taken for granted. I've seen self declared Christians behave as atheists and atheists behave as Christians. Christianity is so baked into western society that having a conscious thought that you are an atheist is meaningless, as everything about your conduct in life acts as though you believe in God and all that goes along with it. Be wary at chipping away with the value structure you now live at and the risk of nihilism that creeps in and truly acting like an atheist. That's not to say there is a guy hiding behind the moon dictating every aspect of your life. So, to the atheists, I don't believe you ? But that is fine, right? As ultimately, me saying I don't believe you and you carrying on saying you don't believe, but keep living a life like you do, isn't bad for anyone. Now, organized religion is another matter entirely....
  22. I generally take the Libertarian view that an individual should be free to make their own choices, as long as it doesn't infringe on someone's rights while doing so. Light up, but zero tolerance on anti social behaviour after or on a burden on the state to pick up the tab after. There are enough genuine occurrences of mental health problems without seeking out more. The war on drugs has been a disaster all over the World. The demand will ever remain, meaning criminal supply. This finances and supports some very despicable individuals and leads to violent crime. Would legalization create social and health problems? Perhaps, but I dare say those problems have a better chance of being solved.
  23. Still largely needed for STEM fields and should be encouraged for those with the desire and aptitudes to go into them. Trades people, not at all. Really not needed and they can go with a passion and interest in a trade field AND have a good income from it, as well as being debt free. It didn't used to be that way and still isn't in large parts of the World. For those who don't "fit in" to a STEM category or trade category, a brutal choice is there to be made. A degree into something that you hope you will find an affinity for and that affinity will also be financially productive enough to justify the debt. To those who felt like they needed to take a course, but didn't really know what, I have a great sense of pity for them. At the end of the 4 years (sometimes more), you have a debt, a degree you don't know what to do with and you are essentially at zero, competing for jobs with people who are just as capable as you, but with more experience and less debt. That's brutal. Still, luck of the draw and sometimes people do find an affinity for something chosen and manage to make it work. It should be said, it can be difficult to emigrate without a degree. So it should be kept in mind in an ever shrinking World. One expects that to change at some point, but no guarantee the timing of that will benefit. Some countries do allow those with a trade in.
  24. Stunningly beautiful. I think that should bring some surface temperatures to 20-21 to my part of the World next weekend.
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