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    North Yorks/Lancs border 180m asl

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  1. Given the unusual similarity between ECM and GFS ar t240 the GFS beyond t240 is more interesting than normal, and that low would head southeast.
  2. That easterly wind over the fell today is cold. Animals are very hungry despite air temperature of 7.
  3. A bit of snow again today. It threatened to settle but now a thaw is under way.
  4. Snow falling for the 4th day in 5, and the 5th in 8. Settling a little. Did not expect this. Lovely views of snow covered hills yesterday afternoon.
  5. Slight frost this morning with it lingering all day in frost hollows. Sharp increase in snipe and pipits on the fell in the last couple of days. They do not believe in the frozen GFS runs for February.
  6. Drenching rain overnight with high winds. Some minor flooding. Nearly 10 C at 8.00 am. 4 C at 9.00 am!
  7. chilly easterly here today, and the field and fell are fully frozen through the day although air temperatures are above freezing.
  8. Covering of snow on the three peaks this morning, but dry and no frost here on the northern edge of the Forest of Bowland
  9. My reading of that was the tops of South West Hills, not for example NYorks. Is that yours?
  10. driving rain and 6 degrees, after that starry and rime frost start to last night. Portents of weather through to January I fear. May see the sun again sometime next month. The models thread seems to think that driving cold rain, a bit of sleet and wet snow on Ingleborough temporarily is exciting for the North West. With the land drains running since mid July and the ground saturated I fear the consequences of deep Iceland depressions as modelled. Mud and flood.
  11. Finding the models for the next 10 days interesting. They look consistent for 8 days - a bit warmer, a bit wintry Thursday in the North West, high pressure, benign day or so, and then? GFS has moved to wet westerlies from ridging but now ECM is looking interesting at D9 and D10. Always interesting when options are available.
  12. Snow is only at around 500m on the three peaks and then not much of it, but finally having a flurry here at 180m after rain showers through the day. Looks like there is more on the Lakes than the Dales.
  13. So up to t144 GFS, GEM and ECM all offer a continuation of this pleasant winter weather (glorious here today - almost an ice day, full sun, a bit of snow on the three peaks). Beyond that more unsettled on GEM and ECM but tolerable. Rather hoping that the GFS route to snow from t192 (wet snow, sleet, windy - for 4 days! - we suffered Desmond and the Boxing Day storm in 2015) is not the way forward, but it does seem to underplay the Azores low and therefore the persistence of the high to the south west. So to my untrained eye ECM looks more likely up to t216. Good model watching at the moment
  14. Remarkable inter model and inter run consistency. This is unusual. The first sign of a change after the milder spell looks like a trough heading south over the UK per lo-res GFS. In the meantime enjoying the dry weather and the remaining snow on the hills.
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