SteveB

4.8c and 120mm please

I hear people saying that nothing can come down from the North while there are heights to the South. Why can't they, why can't the heights just be push out of the way?

Down to -7.3c now. Will it drop further?

Ice day here. High of -0.4c, now -1.0c Not bad considering I'm on the coast and we have no snow on the ground.

Maybe... just maybe, this is the year where instead of everything that can go wrong will go wrong, for getting cold to our shores. Everything that can go right, will go right for getting cold to our shores and keeping it here!

Plain old rain here

I saw that earlier. In with a shout I guess.

Do you think we will see anything?

Local forecast showing the showers coming off the Bristol channel as rain maybe a light dusting on higher ground for the weekend

Well, already apps and local forecasts are way out with predicted temps. Both TV & apps had me down for minimum 1c, currently -1.8c. If they can't get it right now, how are they going to be anywhere near correct 2,3,4,5,6,7 days out.

As a few have alluded to. Since the dawn of model watching, we have never had cold in situ and the classic battleground situation with fronts coming in of the Atlantic. In the late 70's and early 80's I was older enough to remember driving to see my grandparents who also lived in Weston- super-mare, and in the short 10min journey, it rained then started to turn sleety. When we left my granparents, 30mins later it was snowing heavily. I suspect we are seeing something similar in the models for next week. This will a good test of whether we can still get those frontal events bumping into the block, or it simple pushes on through.

But, they don't have to contend with being on the eastern side of the Atlantic, and the gulf stream which dictates the kind of weather we have. In the past we used to buck the trend and get cold spells even though our weather is predominantly Atlantic based. Now with global warming, its just another warm based obstacle we have to overcome, and I think it's the final nail in the coffin for semi regular proper cold spells. We will get that epic cold spell, law of averages say we will, but the gaps between them will grow ever bigger.

I don't know why it comes as a surprise when a cold spell gets watered down as it gets nearer to 0z. ECM will move to GFS and GFS will move to ECM and we will have a cold spell but not the epic freeze the models were showing in FI and we all want. That's living in the UK and global warming for you.

I think I'll change mine from 7.2c to 4.1c and 77mm please.

It can go wrong though mate. It's not like we haven't seen all this before when viewing charts. But, and it's a big but there's always that chance we may hit the jackpot.

Thunder and lightning passing to the North West of here

We've been here before many times when viewing charts in the Winter. You should never ignore any chart that is showing a mild solution, as it's the most likely outcome!

The radar seems to be stuck @ 11.55am!

7.2c & 110mm please.

That sums it up perfectly. To think it would be anything different than that is wishful thinking.

Likely to be more of the same. Record warmth is the form horse. Another above average month and I can't see December being anything different. You can't escape the obvious!

It rained! That's it.

That's a safe bet. You can't get away from the fact that it's the standard type of weather the UK gets in Winter, ergo the most likely outcome.

I'm going for record breaking mild Winter. December 6c+ January 6c + February 6c+ March will be colder than the previous 3 months March 3-4c range.

It must be buried somewhere in the forum. Maybe a new one will be created!