[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Not buying it one bit from the gfs, we have had a few Stella charts during this winter already only for them to disappear. Until all the models sing from the same sheet, it's in a realiable time scale and the met are on board then it's all worthless. But the weather is far from boring so hopefully the gfs is gonna be the leader tonight and bring the other models round to the idea.

[Model Output Discussion - Stormy Period Inbound...]

Not overly excited about current outputs. Good for Scotland and Northern Ireland especially at height but for the rest of us it looks cold, wet and windy. If we want a countrywide cold spell then we really need a block to form, from what I've seen that's not gonna happen.

Maybe our luck will change end of jan going into February.

Plus with the weather so choppy and windy I have zero chance of getting out to sea for some fishing so all in all rather frustrating. Would much rather have a nice artic high giving us beautiful sunny crisp days with light winds and freezing nights with harsh frost.

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Completely in the wrong place for us though surely. How does the PV drain away into Siberia with a big block there?

Position of the block ATM is of no significance, especially at that range. The fact is the block is showing, the position will change over time so don't get hung up on location ATM

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

With the models looking rather dire in terms of cold then I think it's time to take the family away for some winter sun and fun before I go away again. More likely to see snow in Iraq sadly won't have time to enjoy it

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

The way I see it is the next 5 to 7 days looked pretty sorted in terms of what we can expect from the weather, cool, rain or showers and abit windy at times, wouldn't get hung up to much about the ensembles showing anything past day 8. If a pattern change happens in the next week then the ensembles will come kicking and screaming after.

We're having some very decent cold weather at the moment, sometimes it's nice to start a fresh, go back to neutral for us which is westerly regime then hopefully let the next cold spell build and bring us something more interesting than we have now.

It's just a shame that normally we lose about two or more weeks of winter hunting for our next chance. But that's what you get when surrounded by warm waters.

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

I'm losing the will to live with some posts, I'm having a couple of days off from the models otherwise I will end up sticking my head in the oven lol.

Just a quick thank u to the informative posters who try to keep the rest of us sane

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

If the high sets up around southern Europe and sends a plume from Africa, temps could go through the roof. Unlikely as it is, it could happen.

Even if we did have this set up we still would only just sqeeze a 12 or 13 Celsius. Some parts of Northern Africa are actually quite cold during winter, we normally get exceptionally mild weather when we have a mid Atlantic source and not a continental feed

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

In past extremely cold winters we normally get a little teaser in December, so I think we have had a few teasers, fingers crossed this winter follows the trend.

Give it a couple of days and things will be looking good again, I have no evidence for this just a hunch. One things for sure winter 2014/2015 has been so much better than 2013/2014.

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Right that's it, it's the 27th of December and winters over!!!

Because the models at the moment say so.....zzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Model Output Discussion; into 2015]

Models past day 5 will continue to chop and change, I think until we know what's happening with the strat then we will continue to see big differences in the model outputs.

Our next cold spell could come out of nowhere, as stated above all eyes are on the eastern side of the states to see if we can lose the vortex over Canada and move heights into Greenland. Hopefully we get a SSW in the next 10 days which can only aid in our hunt for our next cold snap.

The good thing though is the vortex is nowhere near as strong as last year so we can forget about a repeat of last winters rubbish, even without Northern blocking the trend for Northern incursions will still keep our winter interesting. Game on

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

I am findimg the MOD thread hilarious ! Everyone knocking chunks out of each other!?! Spraying up the walls like a heated springer!! Quite interesting how people continuously contradict themselves based on daily model output. It was 48 hours ago ish that the Easterly was being touted about then the models flipped a bit and to my untrained eyes it now looks like a cold

Few days and then back to PM air. Tomorrow will bring further change and hopefully the easterly will start to re appear on the charts in the coming days. The Daffodils in the garden are hopefully being lured into a false sense of security!!!!

Pathetic isn't it, the mood in the mod thread is like a person with manic depression, one minute there calling off winter next there predicting the next ice age

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

Who to believe a 18 year old with spots

Or a professional who works for the met office

No brainer really lol

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

where?

I reckon Sheffield with a name like swfc

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

This winter has been a good one so far for the majority of us, much better than last year. With a whole week of cold and frosts ahead we have had it good so far....

And we're still only on the 26th of December, so we still have more then two whole months of winter ahead and anything can happen. So for people to be writing it off and throwing paddys is quite hilarious. Plenty of time for more cold, wintry spells.

Models change more times than the weather (excuse the pun) we still have so much to play for

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

When will people learn that FI changes so much so let's talk reliable.

Cold for the next 5 or so days with harsh frosts and the odd wintry shower, anything else us up in the air and again I will bet that the charts will look completely different after this weekend, the cold will become entrenched and the Atlantic will find it a lot harder than forecast to flatten the pattern.

Enjoy what we have now then wait and see what the models churn out.

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

If the models and MetO are correct for January then the OPI is dead in the water!

Back to the drawing board lads.

Andy

If you take a look back through many great winters for snow and cold your find that these situations normally start from absolutely nothing and can surprise even the most professional forecasters.

Don't get hung up on the here and now, things will change and it could go either way.

The opi is just one ingredient for a cold winter and nothing was set in stone when the final value was negative. Plus the opi forecast was for January to turn cold, so still plenty of time for change.

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

People talking about what might happen in two weeks is tragic. I bet my house that in 24 hours the models will look completely different in FI. Then different again in 48 hours and so on..... The amount of times I've read doom and gloom posts after the latest output only for 24 hours later people are quoting 62/63 winter and these snow storm charts then back to doom and gloom. Could go on and on and on.

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

CFS is about as reliable as a flea! GFS I usually look to

Not bad to pick up trends, let's be honest none of the models are hardly performing well at the moment.

Not sure where you see this ?

 

 

 

All the way to 1st. Jan...

 

Big clue when I said cfs not gfs

[Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas]

I wouldn't rule out there being some kind of easterly setting up near the new year, cfs seems pretty keen to bring in a very cold easterly from the 27th. Deffinatly one to watch.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

I'd rather be snowed in with no electricity

Hahaha fair one

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Least everyone can travel around the Xmas period now

[Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas]

Some very decent runs on GEFS this morning, some real bone chillers in there and slowly but surely were seeing less milder members.

Personally I think were gonna see some very decent upgrades from all the models and maybe just maybe gfs(p) is the front runner

[Model Output Discussion - The Run In To Christmas]

BBC not buying into any prolonged cold spell. 6-10 day forecast from Darren Bett has just said milder air again on boxing day! I sincerely hope he is completely and utterly wrong!!

BBC are not going to have much confidence in a forecast past the 5 day mark, I can see why there being cautious because the cold spell is still in FI and each model is playing it differently. Until they all start singing from the same sheet and we start seeing these cold set ups come into range you won't get much commitment from the forecasters.

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

Thanks for the encouragement people, fingers crossed for us lot down here

[Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2014/15.]

At the moment still not much hope for us southerners, maybe abit cold but northerlys never produce for us, we really need a north easterly or a beastly to really freeze south of oxford line.