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Everything posted by andy_leics22
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MattStoke The strange thing is, despite the downgrades from the UKMO, my Metcheck forecast for Thursday is a big upgrade. I wonder what model is used for that forecast? Maybe the ARPEGE? 0c for most of the day, surely not Only yesterday morning it was showing 9c by 10pm on Thursday. Massive difference now.
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MattStoke That's true! Got the 12 week scan for my girlfriend on Thursday to see how baby is doing, so I hope the roads will be clear but I do want to see some heavy snow. I think you'll do well in Stoke, you'll have snow for longer before it turns to rain, just disappointing how it does look like it's going to be washed away by Friday morning.
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Still looks okay for some heavy snow briefly on the leading edge but the UKMO has definitely backtracked a bit this morning with how quickly the 0c 850 line moves Northwards. I think elevation will also be key in this. The North Midlands will fare better as well and have snow for longer. I think the reason i'm not that excited by this is that it's going to turn to heavy rain later on Thursday into Friday and wash away any snow we may have. I just can't get excited over sleet/snow to rain events, but I guess I can't be picky after such a rubbish Winter and have to take it at this stage
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Don The thing that's worried me about this is that the GFS has remained bullish and not backed down to be in line with the UKMO output. I have seen it many times where the UKMO went for a snowier battleground scenario while the GFS showed rain and the GFS ended up being correct. That's not to say that the GFS is always right, but I fear it will be this time.
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I don't think i've ever seen such a big difference between the UKMO and GFS at such a short timeframe. UKMO goes for the low pressure sliding away to the East, GFS goes for it to move North of Scotland If the GFS is correct, our snow chances are screwed. I Hope the GFS is wrong but it's been pretty bullish about this
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Terrible cold spell here in terms of snow. Saw a bit of sleet after a heavy rain shower at the weekend and had a brilliant frost last night that froze the water fountain in the city centre, but that's it. No cold Weather again for the foreseeable on the models. So Feb looks like the next chance, at the earliest. Then Spring is just around the corner I find that we seem to have a better chance of snow here in March than any other month nowadays. Had a decent amount last March, after a relatively snowless Winter.
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Had a heavy rain shower earlier, around 3pm, followed by a rain/snow graupel mix afterwards. It's a shame that the precip didn't reach here a few hours later, the cold air was digging in and it was a wintry mix, but if that had fallen now, it would have been snow. Such fine margins on this isle of ours
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The potential is there! I think with it still being 4-5 days away, there is still a lot of uncertainty, and that could work in our favour. A shift of 50-100 miles in either the trough or slider low could be good for us. I often find in these scenarios, things don't start to become clearer until 2-3 days away, so it's still all to play for.