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blizzardof96

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  1. Awesome work Recretos! Based on some of my research regarding QBO phase correlation's with upper strat temps, ENSO, PDO and solar activity are very important factors to consider when relating the QBO to the strength of the NAM state. This is how I look at it, going from most to least favourable conditions for a major SSW event or intensification of the BDC. Obviously never a linear correlation, as other factors can make major differences in these years(strength of EAMT events, RWT setup's, East Pac ridging, and ozone from previous ENSO events). 1. -QBO, Smin, any ENSO/PDO conditions(see a maj
  2. In +QBO and Smax years(when jan SSN is above 95) the PV tends to stay stronger then normal for the first half of winter before the HT effect begins to turn that around from mid january onwards. Cohen's SAI also backed up a strong early season vortex as the Oct snow cover had little to no advance which helps keep the north siberian high anomalously weak. It also helps keep Eddy heat flux at or below normal from Oct through Dec. Notice how that is beginning to turn around, with a recent spike in EP heat flux. The north pac low is expected to strengthen over the next 15 days which will only hel
  3. With regard to any significant SSW occurring this winter, its looking very slim in DEC/JAN given the indices on the table this year. For +QBO, -PDO, N/- ENSO and years with the JAN SSN below 95 no significant warming's have even occurred since 1950 in DEC/JAN. In february their are a few exceptions, one begin 08-09 which had a strong East Pac ridge, definitely aiding in the wave 2 response. 00-01 is another example of this, although the PDO was neutral/positive and the QBO was transitioning from positive to negative. The common denominator in these two years is a strong Kamchatka PV lobe and b
  4. Asian pattern looking very interesting in the medium range wrt potentially adding additional HF anoms towards the upper strat. We are seeing an overall pattern shift from a +VE anomaly north of India to a major lowering in SLP across Siberia and areas to the West of the Tibetan Plateau according to the ECMWF and its ensemble suite. Notice the northeastward momentum flux across northern and western europe. This is helping setup equatorward propagation of -AAM and a -EAMT response. OLR, 850mb stream function and wave flux: SLP response across asia is unsupportive of significant heat flux tr
  5. If we take a look at +QBO years where we saw no major SSW's events from Dec-March at 30mb we get this pattern at 500mb. Notice the suppressed heights over the tropics which is probably indicative of above normal stratospheric temps across this area. Their is also a fairly neutral NAO signal with a strong bering sea ridge. When we see a strong bering sea ridge coupled with a neutral or positive NAO it really goes against any WAVE 1 or 2 warming's. This is why any major warming of the strat looks unlikely until we can get out of this current pattern.
  6. No i am not suggesting that at all... but a late season warming is something you look for in low solar/+QBO years whether its a FW or just a late winter SSW. I will try to add brackets to abbreviations when possible in the future and yes EAMT does stand for east asian mountain torque. Cheers.
  7. Some interesting trends developing with regards to the stratosphere.... The vortex has began to strengthen again and upper stratospheric temps are beginning to return to near or below normal levels. Been looking more into stratospheric analogs for the upcoming few months, based on a -PDO, neutral ONI and +QBO state. Best years include 78-79, 01-02, 90-91, 61-62 and 66-67. In these analogs we saw a tendency to see early winter CW's with December 78 and 66 showing this response. Dec 1978 warming at 10hpa: Tropospheric response shows a very anomalous alaskan block with CPF evident from si
  8. Thanks chionomaniac, On the topic of the GWO, the next month is going to be key to see where we are headed for the start of winter. Last year from Nov 1st to Dec 15th we had a strong -AAM anomaly propagating equatorward with +AAM in the subtropics below 30N. This caused a broader hadley cell to form with troughs favoured further south and ridging dominating over the mid latitude belt from 40 to 60N. Notice the tendency for anticyclonic wave breaking across the NE pac. The -NAO pattern in the means really saved the UK from having a very warm period as ridging was favoured over almost
  9. Hey Guys, I am from Toronto, Canada and am new to netweather forums. I run the torontowxcenter blog if anyone is familar with it. A friend of mine recommended I take a look at the strat page on this forum. Just wanted to point out that the info here is really incredible(and at a much higher quality then most canadian/american forums). Anyways, the current state of the atmosphere is such that we saw a pretty robust MJO wave over the west pacific. This, combined with building pressure over asia, has helped produce a burst of west pacific typhoons over the last two weeks. This has trigger
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