Well. Here is something I noticed myself that is not scientific. When there is a cold winter approaching, I have been able to smell a scent from some of my trees usually around October or November. When it is going to be a mild winter, I don't smell anything from them that year. This year I noticed the scent late November. So guessing that indicates a late start. My Apple Tree BTW still has green leaves on it. Now I don't really believe in my own method, because even the trees can get it wrong. But I am wondering if there will be a severe (not just below average) cold spell for a couple of weeks later in January or early February? If there are not at least a couple of weeks of extreme cold with hopefully heavy snow, late in the season I can only blame my trees for lying to me and so far from what I recall they have not been wrong in their scents.