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Bazray

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Posts posted by Bazray

  1. Forecast summary

    Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

    UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Feb 2018 to Tuesday 6 Mar 2018:

    Sunday will be dry but cold for many, with some sunny spells. Snow showers may develop across eastern and southern areas where fresh winds will make it feel bitterly cold. Through next week it is likely to become even colder with strong easterly winds, bringing an increasing threat of snow showers. These will be heaviest and most frequent in central and eastern areas, and some spells of more prolonged snow are possible at times, particularly in the east but also perhaps in parts of the south and southwest. The cold weather will continue through the rest of the period, with the northwest seeing the best of any brighter weather, and here it may be less cold at times, although brisk winds will continue to bring a marked wind chill.

    Updated at: 1200 on Tue 20 Feb 2018

    UK Outlook for Wednesday 7 Mar 2018 to Wednesday 21 Mar 2018:

    At the start of this period it is likely to remain cold or very cold for many with widespread frost and brisk easterly winds from Continental Europe, making it feel raw. This will continue to bring the risk of significant snow across some southern, eastern and central parts of the country, whereas towards the north and west it will be drier. As we head through the middle of March, there is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast, but it may start to turn more unsettled and less cold with the wettest and mildest weather spreading in from the southwest. In contrast, northern and eastern areas could remain colder well into March

    Updated at: 1200 on Tue 20 Feb 2018

    • Like 1
  2. 10 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

    I am 52 yrs and been watching the weather for over 40 yrs . When i was around 13 yrs in 1978 i remember the charts very well . we had a strong easterly around mid febraury  and max temp around -3 across a lot of UK. I lived in Newcastle and i recall blizzards like i have never seen. Newcastle was cut off from rest of country.  The models are showing charts identical to 1978 and this is the first time since 1978 i can recall seeing the same setup.  With the air crossing the north sea being so cold with a sea temp around 6 C , this will give us ice days , but the snow showers off the sea will become heavier through next week and east coast will look like armagedon. 

     

    Truly i have waited 39 yrs to see this chart set up with the high over scandi and a low coming up from south.  Amazing that ECM has now followed the GFS and i am 90% certain members on here are about to see a historic event. 

     

    Uppers of widespread -13 Will see minumums of -10 C all over and day maxs of < -2 C 

     

     

     

    Thought that was worth a share too! I'm getting overly exited :D

    • Like 1
  3. Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

    UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:

    The weekend will be mostly dry, with frost and freezing fog patches clearing to give cold days with sunny spells. Snow flurries may develop across eastern and southern areas where a brisk easterly wind will make it feel bitterly cold. It may be less cold in the far northwest with some rain possible. Into next week it is likely to turn colder with brisk easterly winds, giving a significant wind chill, especially in the south and east. This will give the risk of further snow flurries, which may become heavier and more widespread. There is also the risk of more significant snow pushing northeastwards across southern and some central areas. The north and west will be brighter, and it may be less cold across the far northwest at times.

    Edit: just noticed this was posted on last page, sorry.

  4. 6 minutes ago, Ashme said:

    Would I be stupid to buy a quad bike this week before it comes? Or should I wait? The trouble I have is my Wife's Grandad has dementia and lives 10miles away and although he lives in his own house on his own someone always goes to see him every day. I'm worried if it does come as bad as the models are showing, there will be no chance of anyone getting to him. I'm also worried about leaving it too late and not being able to get the quad if I do buy one. Sorry for the long off topic post.

     

    Why not wait? Met office and the Media will start dishing out warnings soon if the models continue this way in the next few runs I imagine.

    • Like 1
  5. 28 minutes ago, essexweather said:

    Good evening :)

    Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently)

    MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier)

    ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry.

    The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country.

    And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest)

    -----------

    2m temperaure

    temperature.png

    850 temperature

    850t.png

    Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage)

    snow.png

    -----------

    Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday.

    Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

    Thank you - very good info.

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