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Bazray

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    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, Doctor96 said:

    I am 52 yrs and been watching the weather for over 40 yrs . When i was around 13 yrs in 1978 i remember the charts very well . we had a strong easterly around mid febraury  and max temp around -3 across a lot of UK. I lived in Newcastle and i recall blizzards like i have never seen. Newcastle was cut off from rest of country.  The models are showing charts identical to 1978 and this is the first time since 1978 i can recall seeing the same setup.  With the air crossing the north sea being so cold with a sea temp around 6 C , this will give us ice days , but the snow showers off the sea will become heavier through next week and east coast will look like armagedon. 

     

    Truly i have waited 39 yrs to see this chart set up with the high over scandi and a low coming up from south.  Amazing that ECM has now followed the GFS and i am 90% certain members on here are about to see a historic event. 

     

    Uppers of widespread -13 Will see minumums of -10 C all over and day maxs of < -2 C 

     

     

     

    Thought that was worth a share too! I'm getting overly exited :D

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Bazray

    Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

    UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Feb 2018 to Monday 5 Mar 2018:

    The weekend will be mostly dry, with frost and freezing fog patches clearing to give cold days with sunny spells. Snow flurries may develop across eastern and southern areas where a brisk easterly wind will make it feel bitterly cold. It may be less cold in the far northwest with some rain possible. Into next week it is likely to turn colder with brisk easterly winds, giving a significant wind chill, especially in the south and east. This will give the risk of further snow flurries, which may become heavier and more widespread. There is also the risk of more significant snow pushing northeastwards across southern and some central areas. The north and west will be brighter, and it may be less cold across the far northwest at times.

    Edit: just noticed this was posted on last page, sorry.

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Ashme said:

    Would I be stupid to buy a quad bike this week before it comes? Or should I wait? The trouble I have is my Wife's Grandad has dementia and lives 10miles away and although he lives in his own house on his own someone always goes to see him every day. I'm worried if it does come as bad as the models are showing, there will be no chance of anyone getting to him. I'm also worried about leaving it too late and not being able to get the quad if I do buy one. Sorry for the long off topic post.

     

    Why not wait? Met office and the Media will start dishing out warnings soon if the models continue this way in the next few runs I imagine.

    • Like 1

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, essexweather said:

    Good evening :)

    Thought I would give a quick update on how things are developing in regards to MOGREPS and ECM (perfered medium range model currently)

    MOGREPS... Consistent signal throughout the week of a Easterly flow setting in, was a brief wobble over the last couple of days to a more South-Easterly flow but now back to a direct Easterly from around 22nd February (20-30% chance of a day or two earlier)

    ECM: Very high probability of much of Europe heading into the freezer next week (90% prob of this) but a couple of shortwaves keep developing from Denmark to Norway next week which either delays the cold further from reaching our shores or in some cases prevents the cold getting further than BeNeLux. Forecaster guideance of 17Z today was 70% chance of the Easterly progressing far enough to affect England. More than a few wobbles this week so there is still no guarantee we will get a bit of the cherry.

    The main story from Exeter is, that *if* we do get in on the action next week, this will be a prolonged event lasting well into March with significant impacts on this country.

    And just for us regional folk, here are todays 12Z ECM ensembles for Essex (but similar for anywhere in SE/EA to be honest)

    -----------

    2m temperaure

    temperature.png

    850 temperature

    850t.png

    Snow depth (not really worth taking notice of at this stage)

    snow.png

    -----------

    Sunday will be another wobble day with the models but you will likely see cross-model agreement start from late Monday and into Tuesday.

    Have a great weekend and fingers crossed for next week. Europe really is on the verge of something very special.

    Thank you - very good info.

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Met office forecast looking good.

    Dry, sometimes bright weather and light winds will predominate in the UK throughout next week, with increasing amounts of overnight frost. Rain or drizzle and stronger winds are possible at times in northwestern areas. Temperatures at the start of next week will be around average for the time of year, and probably slightly above average in the north. However, there will be a trend toward colder weather by the end of the week and into the following week, as winds turn predominately easterly. Wintry showers may develop,with the potential for some significant snowfalls focused on southern, central or eastern areas. The location and intensity of any snowfall will be uncertain until much nearer the time.

    UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Thursday 15 Mar 2018:

    In first week of March, it is likely to stay cold with widespread overnight frost. There will be a greater chance than usual of easterly winds, which would bring very cold weather at times and the potential for some snowfall in eastern and even southern parts. Unusually, it will probably be driest in the northwest. In the second week of March there are indications that it may become more changeable and less cold, with the wettest weather and mildest temperatures likely to be in the south or the southwest of the UK.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Bazray

    The models are just a bunch of man made algorithms,

    Sort of like a calculator, but instead of being asked  questions based upon fact, like what is the result of 1+1 

    it has to predict the outcome of events in the future, where the input of data has not been resolved yet.

    Trend is the friend here, not taking every run as gospel, because the fact is the model is just outputting a semi-educated guess till we get to a closer range and until then it will flip-flop from run-to-run.

     

     

     

    • Like 1
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