[Novel Coronavirus – China]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Have they done two updates already because this morning there were 613 cases .

Hows our bubble looking ?

I believe it's updated at 5/6PM?

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Iran have reported 1,576 new cases and 21 new deaths in the past 24 hours.

Not too sure if this was not in a 24 hour but correct if wrong 

https://twitter.com/AbasAslani/status/1236246934500913152?s=19

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

This is on top of the 11 eairler today 

[Novel Coronavirus – China]

Very worrying news coming from Italy

 

[Model output discussion 02/02/20]

So trying to bring myself up to speed with what's been going the past month and now it looks were at the "last chance" for this "winter" regarding snowfall 

Let's see what's happenings in the coming days

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/01/2020 Onward]

If I may ask a question ? Do you think we could expect snowfall (dusting) in West Cornwall / St Austell?

[Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3]

Not much to say today as much of the wind had calmed down 

Quite disappointed to be honest 

[Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3]

Somewhat Windy with a quite the breezy gusts at times 

Nothing to write home about just yet 

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Writing what off Steve,nothings happened yet ??

What he means is there was a bunch a people the last few days who were on the lines "winter is over" or it be a mild January etc 

That aside still a lot of uncertainty but ECM has joined the wet and possibly mild camp with the GFS 

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Perhaps you need to go to spec savers and check your spectacles .

I agree though, until we have some cross model consensus we still don’t know what the post Xmas period will bring. Shame that GEFS aren’t as bullish this morning. Sod’s law they flip when the Op comes on board .  Odds on that High pressure will build in our local but will it sit to our west and will there be a sliding low to trigger an easterly

Think I'm going to have to get one for my spelling  

Of course I do think some are jumping the gun with this especially with the timeframe being so far out and a lot of things can go wrong or change really quickly personally I would wait at least a week before making any conclusions

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

I would honestly remain spectacle of this "colder spell" not too much support and with no agreement with most models I'm not buying it not to mention how far away it is

[Model output discussion - into Christmas]

Don't see any of the excitement at the moment because it's simply too far out (new year) personnely I think some are getting a bit much over one run 

Prepare for the immediate disappointed 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

I really don't see why many people are so disappointed with the recent output as of late even with the higher "uncertainty" the likely as to happen is a return to sightly milder temps just before Christmas day with a "topper" cold air from the north for a few days before returning to milder and wet

It may still turn colder but looking very unlikely as the ECM was a huge outlier and will most likely fall into place with the other models as many others has said a lot of things are at us even with the "background signals" the seasonal forecasts are "mostly accurate" for a reason...

 

 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Me & @shaky talked about this the other day when GEM showed it

ECM is broadly the same @T84

Its where the system moving up from biscay bumps into the relative cold air streaming SW over England.

 

Much stronger ridging from the GFS 06z

Not quite this run though - Deep cold edging further SW though-

 

 

Can I ask what date this is showing on the GFS 06z? 

Seems there may be some surprises on the way to Xmas before becoming milder just before the big day 

 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

5 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

According to the Met office, seasonal models are still showing a mild and slightly wetter winter for the UK.

It's bound to happen  a full 6 months of mild and wet weather

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

March 13 Actual V UKMO 144

 

Look at the high similarities !

Doesn't matter if you can't get the cold in can't we ?

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS now inline with UKMO

Going to be the best run yet.

Great to see that it's now following the UKMO hopefully the ECM will start to follow suit tonight but as always never say never...

No short term cold just but it's definitely there in the east and north  

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

On the more positive side this seems to be a good start ? A change to our current pattern of cold zonal?

 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

16 minutes ago, fromey said:

Perhaps the GFS is having none because it’s forecasting this!!

And yet what if the GFS is right I have a feeling it will be especially with the recent signs of the polar vortex strengthening

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

GFS 12z - a bit of a horror show

Shame to be honest looked like it did have a bit of promise early on however with the uncertainty at current so could change either way.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

So called snow event at current for the Midlands ? Won't last long as milder air comes in shortly after 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

What on earth happened here? Really throwing out the toys because of the models verification? I honestly thought that judging on here that Kevin the carrot got sold out  

I don't get all of the negative vibes tonight perhaps a sight improvement in the middle term especially up north  

I think we need to be mature it's only the weather for crying out loud 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 144 same as ICON > cold polar flow developing for Election day...

Sadly I can't see anything like a "cold polar flow"

At best just sightly cool and that's putting it lightly

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks to GP for that reply, right - that at least puts the record straight now, we have heard it from the horses mouth - over to February then!!

Yep we better off going to America or starting a model discussion there 

In more serious terms it never looked like there was going to be a prolonged cold spell let alone in December unfortunately some people did get a bit too excited/hype and have disappeared

For the meantime it's looks like it's going to he below average temperatures with chances of heavy snowfall for Northern england/Scotland

 

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

 

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

28 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Icon 120 sure doesn't blow up that low in the Atlantic,what ramifications would this have later on?

 

The PV also looks further into Russia/Scandinavia?