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Skullzrulerz

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Posts posted by Skullzrulerz


  1. 1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

    Perhaps you need to go to spec savers and check your spectacles 🤣.

    I agree though, until we have some cross model consensus we still don’t know what the post Xmas period will bring. Shame that GEFS aren’t as bullish this morning. Sod’s law they flip when the Op comes on board 😏.  Odds on that High pressure will build in our local but will it sit to our west and will there be a sliding low to trigger an easterly 🤷🏻‍♂️

    Think I'm going to have to get one for my spelling 😂 

    Of course I do think some are jumping the gun with this especially with the timeframe being so far out and a lot of things can go wrong or change really quickly personally I would wait at least a week before making any conclusions


  2. I really don't see why many people are so disappointed with the recent output as of late even with the higher "uncertainty" the likely as to happen is a return to sightly milder temps just before Christmas day with a "topper" cold air from the north for a few days before returning to milder and wet

    It may still turn colder but looking very unlikely as the ECM was a huge outlier and will most likely fall into place with the other models as many others has said a lot of things are at us even with the "background signals" the seasonal forecasts are "mostly accurate" for a reason...

     

     


  3. 27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Me & @shaky talked about this the other day when GEM showed it

    ECM is broadly the same @T84

    Its where the system moving up from biscay bumps into the relative cold air streaming SW over England.

    584E366D-8976-4A69-8705-CC2F42230F95.thumb.jpeg.9a8d2882ed5424fe31cede204c63b72a.jpeg

     

    Much stronger ridging from the GFS 06z

    13CD9FC1-5F5A-4EF3-81E9-3F5220D6A46C.thumb.png.382febd337d0d2b0148dfaa2710b7a7c.png

    Not quite this run though - Deep cold edging further SW though-

     

     

    Can I ask what date this is showing on the GFS 06z? 

    Seems there may be some surprises on the way to Xmas before becoming milder just before the big day 

     


  4. 15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Thanks to GP for that reply, right - that at least puts the record straight now, we have heard it from the horses mouth - over to February then!!

    Yep we better off going to America or starting a model discussion there 

    In more serious terms it never looked like there was going to be a prolonged cold spell let alone in December unfortunately some people did get a bit too excited/hype and have disappeared 🤔

    For the meantime it's looks like it's going to he below average temperatures with chances of heavy snowfall for Northern england/Scotland

     

    15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

     

     


  5. 8 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    Again...why are people getting in a sweat over the +144 UKMO chart? 

    7D46A640-34A3-42F6-9866-A5BF03BD11B3.thumb.gif.71fca1975ec08b3e60602dad54c80fc6.gif
    1FBF1A2D-DD91-48E2-9325-0343A982AA3A.thumb.gif.7790692d83b8f53ad2fe056283f88b02.gif

    Have people read the outlook for what comes almost immediately after this...?

    55998D09-CFB0-4631-B1A1-ACA99EF1F56E.thumb.png.77c191a638bf5625c4d32562360ac421.png
     

    Updated at 16:00...key points...initially mild...then more likely to dip below normal temperatures...wintry showers up North...low risk of widespread snowfall on North of rain bands..frost and freezing fog.

    That sounds like Winter to me. 😀

    You might be right if it was for the Cairngorms they would get a absolute pasting to say the last 

    Rest of England ? Sounds like cold rain and average temperatures 

    A huge difference to the latest 12z and yesterday 12z I don't think I need to say no more ..


  6. In general GFS is only slightly better then last night but it's miles away from what showing the last few days... 

    It's either pushed back further or has been wiped out

    It's hard to believe overnight we're gone from a harsh cold spell to a topper but it was somewhat expected with seasonal forecasts mostly stating a cold spell around mid month

    Unless things start changing soon I can't see anything noteworthy yet


  7. So it seems that the rogue model was right unfortunately as both ECM/GFS has moved towards it 

    You would of thought overnight judging by some of the reaction we was getting mild southwest weather with a Barret for measure

    So thankfully there's still a bit of time for things to change mild or cold point of view 

    Also to note that most of the seasonal weather only noted that it was going to be a cold outbreak and some snow for the north and nothing more 

     

     

     

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